Levinovitz likens modern-day macroeconomics to mathematical astrology in the early Chinese empire. And in fact, the parallel sounds pretty accurate. The article is worth reading just to learn about classical Chinese astrology, actually.

But anyway, Levinovitz draws heavily on the econ disses of Paul Romer:

‘I’ve come to the position that there should be a stronger bias against the use of math,’ Romer explained to me. ‘If somebody came and said: “Look, I have this Earth-changing insight about economics, but the only way I can express it is by making use of the quirks of the Latin language”, we’d say go to hell, unless they could convince us it was really essential. The burden of proof is on them.’

 …and Paul Pfleiderer:

Pfleiderer called attention to the prevalence of ‘chameleons’ – economic models ‘with dubious connections to the real world’…Like Romer, Pfleiderer wants economists to be transparent about this sleight of hand. ‘Modelling,’ he told me, ‘is now elevated to the point where things have validity just because you can come up with a model.’

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• Astrologers and macroeconomists – Noah Smith
• Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care? – Beaudry, Galizia & Portier
• Negative rates are not the fault of central banks – Martin Wolf
• A Progressive Logic of Trade – Dani Rodrik
• What’s Wrong With Negative Rates? – Joseph E. Stiglitz
• Is there a link between free trade and war? – Branko Milanovic
• Convergence no More – Francesco Saraceno
• Why Monetarism Failed – Paul Krugman
• Neo-Fisherian Denial – Stephen Williamson
• Neo-Fisherian Microfoundations – Nick Rowe
• No Time for Credibility – Paul Krugman
• How old were the inventors of major inventions? – MacroMania
• Is Cheap Oil Contractionary? – Paul Krugman

Japonski, ki se bori s pošastjo deflacije zaradi depresivnega povpraševanja, IMF svetuje naj dvigne plače oziroma začne zasledovati cilj rasti plač, da bi tako spodbudila rast povpraševanja. Natančneje, Japonska naj bi dvignila plače v gospodarstvu in javnem sektorju ter minimalno plačo.

Gospodarstvo seveda ni navdušeno (konkurenčnost izvoza!), ampak počakajte šele na jastrebe v poslovnih časnikih in naše gospodarske zborničarje, ki bodo znoreli zaradi predloga dviga plač v javnem sektorju. Kaj če bo IMF to predlagal tudi EU in Sloveniji?! To bi bila pa katastrofa za izvoz, ane? (kaj pa povečanje konkurenčnosti skozi tečaj jena?)

Oni bi zniževali plače in izdatke v javnem sektorju, niso pa preštudirali uvoda v makroekonomijo in ne znajo povedati, kako bi drugače spodbudili mrtvo domače povpraševanje.

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How do you remember Slovenia’s position during the Greek crisis? The Economist described an incident where our prime minister (during the final phase of negotiation) lost his temper, started shouting at Tsipras lecturing him to that extent that Italy had to intervene and calm him down…

I was not privy to that incident. But I can confirm that the Slovenian finance minister’s interventions in the Eurogroup were hostile to such a degree that they were almost helpful to me – in the sense that they were bordering on the comical. Indeed, he was the first finance minister to threaten me with Grexit, which was precious coming from a country that would suffer hugely from… Grexit. Seldom have I encountered such a combination of economic illiteracy and self-defeating hostility.

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Samo Evropejci, ki v davčnih oazah skrivajo 2,600 milijard dolarjev (tretjino globalnega “zaklada, skritega v davčnih oazah), prikrajšajo domače proračune letno za 78 milijard dolarjev prihodkov.

Vir: The Atlantic, povzeto po Gabrielu Zucmanu

Nemški finančni minister Wolfgang Schäuble si je prejšnji petek privoščil krepko izjavo, in sicer da je Mariu Draghiju v pogovoru povedal, da je s politiko ohlapne monetarne politike kriv za polovico volilnega rezultata nemške desničarske “protievropske stranke” AfD (Alternative für Deutschland). Temu so se pridružili tudi ostali nemški politiki z izjavami, da ECB z ekspanzivno monetarno politiko in negativnimi obrestnimi merami ogroža prihranke nemških upokojencev. In natanko s tem vprašanjem me je v torek na Unicreditovem Zajtrku finančnih trgov izzval urednik Financ Peter Frankl.

Je torej ECB kriva za uničevalni učinek negativnih obrestnih mer na prihranke nemških upokojencev  in s tem za vzpon nemškega desnega ekstremizma? Ne!

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Spodnji dve sliki najbrž ne potrebujeta posebnega komentarja.

Slogan tega poletja: ‘Mossack Fonseca – … ker davki so za revne ljudi’

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Eksperimentiranje nekaterih centralnih bank od ECB do BoJ z negativnimi obrestnimi merami na depozite (trenutno so negativne obrestne mere v veljavi v kar četrtini svetovnega gospodarstva, merjeno z deležem v svetovnem BDP) ne kaže samo tega, da so izčrpale vso konvencionalno municijo v boju proti deflaciji in da so povsem nemočne, pač pa vnaša nov, izjemno nevarni vir nestabilnosti v svetovno gospodarstvo. Ideja negativnih obrestnih mer, kot piše Joseph Stiglitz, izhaja iz modelskih prepričanj centralnih bank (CB), da je s “šraufanjem” obrestnih mer gor in dol mogoče uravnavati gospodarske cikle. Če je recesija, pač CB znižuje obrestno mero, dokler se ne pojavijo znaki okrevanja. In če tudi ničelna obrestna mera ne deluje, gredo CB pač tudi na “negativni teritorij”.

Vendar je to modelsko prepričanje napačno.

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