Vir: The Economist
Vir: The Economist
Zelo dober pregleden članek Larsa P. Sylla o uporabi predpostavke racionalnih pričakovanj v makroekonomiji in o njeni napačnosti v realnem svetu ter problemu tega, da so ekonomisti zaljubljeni v traktabilnost matematičnih izpeljav, čeprav je osnova, na kateri gradijo, absolutno gnila in napačna. Larpurlartizem brez kakršnekoli uporabne vrednosti.
The concept of rational expectations was first developed by John Muth (1961) and later applied to macroeconomics by Robert Lucas (1972). In this way the concept of uncertainty as developed by Keynes (1921) and Knight (1921) was turned into a concept of quantifiable risk in the hands of neoclassical economics.
Within the framework of its Visiting Research Fellow Program 2015, the Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS) in Regensburg encourages applications from historians and economists or scholars of related disciplines. The duration of the research stay is usually in the range between two and four weeks. The fellows are expected to conduct their research as part of a mutual agreement with the institute. The amount of the research allowance is determined by the applicant’s professional experience. Nadaljujte z branjem
Many central banks rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models – known as DSGEs to cognoscenti. This column […] argues that the models’ mathematical basis fails when crises shift the underlying distributions of shocks. Specifically, the linchpin ‘law of iterated expectations’ fails, so economic analyses involving conditional expectations and inter-temporal derivations also fail. Like a fire station that automatically burns down whenever a big fire starts, DSGEs become unreliable when they are most needed.
Robert Lucas: Modern Macroeconomics: “I was convinced by Friedman and Schwartz…
…that the 1929-33 down turn was induced by monetary factors (declined is money and velocity both) I concluded that a good starting point for theory would be the working hypothesis that all depressions are mainly monetary in origin…. As I have written elsewhere, I now believe that the evidence on post-war recessions (up to but not including the one we are now in) overwhelmingly supports the dominant importance of real shocks…