Vir: The Economist
Vir: The Economist
Zelo dober pregleden članek Larsa P. Sylla o uporabi predpostavke racionalnih pričakovanj v makroekonomiji in o njeni napačnosti v realnem svetu ter problemu tega, da so ekonomisti zaljubljeni v traktabilnost matematičnih izpeljav, čeprav je osnova, na kateri gradijo, absolutno gnila in napačna. Larpurlartizem brez kakršnekoli uporabne vrednosti.
The concept of rational expectations was first developed by John Muth (1961) and later applied to macroeconomics by Robert Lucas (1972). In this way the concept of uncertainty as developed by Keynes (1921) and Knight (1921) was turned into a concept of quantifiable risk in the hands of neoclassical economics.
Within the framework of its Visiting Research Fellow Program 2015, the Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS) in Regensburg encourages applications from historians and economists or scholars of related disciplines. The duration of the research stay is usually in the range between two and four weeks. The fellows are expected to conduct their research as part of a mutual agreement with the institute. The amount of the research allowance is determined by the applicant’s professional experience. Nadaljujte z branjem
Many central banks rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models – known as DSGEs to cognoscenti. This column […] argues that the models’ mathematical basis fails when crises shift the underlying distributions of shocks. Specifically, the linchpin ‘law of iterated expectations’ fails, so economic analyses involving conditional expectations and inter-temporal derivations also fail. Like a fire station that automatically burns down whenever a big fire starts, DSGEs become unreliable when they are most needed.
Robert Lucas: Modern Macroeconomics: “I was convinced by Friedman and Schwartz…
…that the 1929-33 down turn was induced by monetary factors (declined is money and velocity both) I concluded that a good starting point for theory would be the working hypothesis that all depressions are mainly monetary in origin…. As I have written elsewhere, I now believe that the evidence on post-war recessions (up to but not including the one we are now in) overwhelmingly supports the dominant importance of real shocks…
Za mnoge ni bilo posebno presenečenje, ko je Evropsko sodišče za človekove pravice odločilo v prid varčevalcev nekdanje Ljubljanske banke iz BiH in hkrati sprožilo zelo verjetno kaskado nadaljnih vlaganj podobnih zahtevkov s strani preostalih skupin varčevalcev predvsem na Hrvaškem in BiH. Kaže, da je presenečena zgolj slovenska vlada. Vračilo glavnice in natečenih obresti za slabo četrtino stoletja bo zamajalo terminski načrt slovenske fiskalne ozdravitve. Dobrega pol leta po tem, ko se je rodila Družba za upravljanje terjatev bank in le dva meseca potem, ko je bil prenešen prvi večji sveženj bančnih tertjatev nanjo, nas čaka nov fiskalni knockdown. *
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Karl Polanyi’s The Great Transformation is certainly the right place to start in thinking about “neoliberalism” and its global spread. But you are right to notice and do need to keep thinking that Polanyi is talking about pre-World War II classical liberalism, and that modern post-1980 neoliberalism is somewhat different.
First, as I, at least, see it, there are three strands of thought that together make up the current of ideas and policies that people call “neoliberalism”: