Aktualni ”roadshow” oziroma predstavitev slovenske makroekonomske situacije s strani predstavnikov slovenskega ministrstva za finance tujim investitorjem je sprožil nemalo zgražanja v javnosti. Češ, kako jih ni sram, da ob tako visokem dolgu slovensko državo še bolj zadolžujejo? Toda je takšno zgražanje upravičeno? *
Monthly Archives: marec 2014
Kje so potencialne težave Pikettyjevega “Kapitala”
Kot sem napovedal, je knjiga Thomasa Pikettyja “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” postala globalni akademski hit, must-read. Ni ga relevantnega časopisa, ki ima vsaj kanček intelektualne podstati, da ne bi objavil recenzije knjige. Britanski The Economist vsak teden objavi analizo enega poglavja knjige. Pikettyjeve predstavitve knjige širom sveta so razprodane. Do zdaj sem prebral najmanj 20 različnih recenzij knjige in vse so “navdušene“. Navdušene nad preprosto izpovedno močjo preproste formule, ki jo je lansiral Piketty – “r > g“: kadarkoli v zgodovini je bila stopnja donosa kapitala (r) večja od stopnje rasti BDP (g), se je močno povečevala neenakost v korist lastnikov kapitala.
Vikend branje
- Monetary Policy And Secular Stagnation – House of Debt
- Europe’s banking problems and secular stagnation – vox
- Paul Krugman — at last — admits IS-LM is deficient !!! – Lars P. Syll
- Dare To Be Silly – Paul Krugman
- What I Mean When I Talk About IS-LM (Wonkish) – Paul Krugman
- Zero forever: Interest rates and inflation – The Economist
- Stress Tests, Lending, and Capital Requirements – Baseline Scenario
- The Anatomy of Imitation – Digitopoly
- Economic Realism- Paul Krugman
- Higher food prices are good for the poor … in the long run – Derek Headey
- There can be an excess supply of commercial bank money – Nick Rowe
- Why the Income Distribution Matters for Macroeconomics – Atif Mian and Amir Sufi
- Growth Versus Distribution: Hunger Games – Paul Krugman
- How You, Me and Everyone Got the Top 1 Percent All Wrong – The Atlantic
- Kapital for the Twenty-First Century? – James K. Galbraith
O zlorabi teoretičnih modelov v ekonomiji in financah
In this essay I discuss how theoretical models in finance and economics are used in ways that make them “chameleons” and how chameleons devalue the intellectual currency and muddy policy debates. A model becomes a chameleon when it is built on assumptions with dubious connections to the real world but nevertheless has conclusions that are uncritically (or not critically enough) applied to understanding our economy. I discuss how chameleons are created and nurtured by the mistaken notion that one should not judge a model by its assumptions, by the unfounded argument that models should have equal standing until definitive empirical tests are conducted, and by misplaced appeals to “as-if” arguments, mathematical elegance, subtlety, references to assumptions that are “standard in the literature,” and the need for tractability.
Young Scholars Initiative scholarship with Financial Times
The Financial Times is supporting the Young Scholars Initiative by sponsoring scholarships to attend the Institute’s Human After All conference in Toronto, April 10-12.
The conference (click to see program) will examine the overwhelming economic impact of innovation on society. Panels will explore the successes and failures of economic systems in generating innovation, and the corresponding radical uncertainty engendered by the pervasive growth of innovation. The conference will address the critical role of banking and finance in the “innovation economy” and the most effective policy responses required in this brave new world.
Več info na Institute for New Economic Thinking
Leto dni po Cipru: nerealističnost napovedi
Ta slika pove vse glede učinkov programa fiskalne konsolidacije v posameznih državah ter glede kvalitete simulacij, ki so se jih vodilni v EU v ta namen posluževali. Dinamika brezposelnosti:
Kdo (ali kaj) znižuje javni dolg?
Glede javnega dolga obstaja v javnosti veliko ideoloških razprav, ki pa razen služenja populizmu nimajo pomembne substance. Splošno javno mnenje je, da je javni dolg in novo zadolževanje nekaj absolutno slabega, ker to pomeni višje davke. Toda nedavni poskusi z varčevanjem na silo, ki so poskušali na hitro znižati javne deficite, so naredili ogromno škode in praktično nobene koristi, saj so države zaradi varčevanja padle v recesijo in še bolj povečale javni dolg. Pri tem javnost rada pozablja, da je pomembna razlika med dolgom gospodinjstev na eni ter dolgom podjetij in držav na drugi strani. Gospodinjstva morajo poplačati dolgove, podjetja in države pa tega nikoli ne naredijo.
Države praktično nikoli absolutno ne znižajo javnega dolga, pač pa razmerje med javnim dolgom in BDP namesto njih zniža gospodarska rast. Samo hitra gospodarska rast lahko zares zniža visoke javne dolgove. Poglejte spodnje slike.
