Z Binetom Kordežem delava na enem zanimivem projektu glede slovenske gospodarske situacije in strategije razvoja. Spodaj predstavljam majhen košček zgodbe glede anatomije slovenske gospodarske stagnacije, prikazane na makro nivoju in v slikah. Slike povedo več kot tisoč besed.

Zgodba glede slovenske gospodarske stagnacije na makroekonomski ravni je dokaj preprosta (dejansko pa je na mikro ravni izjemno kompleksna):

• Stopnje rasti slovenskega BDP trendno upadajo (slika)

• Statistično je stopnja rasti BDP enaka vsoti stopnje rasti produktivnosti in stopnje rasti števila prebivalcev
• Rast števila prebivalcev v Sloveniji je minimalna in je v obdobju 2014-2025 v povprečju prispevala 8 % k letni rasti BDP (slika)

• Pretežno (92-odstotno v obdobju 2014-2025) rast BDP poganja rast produktivnosti (BDP/preb.)
• Vendar pa rast produktivnosti trendno upada (slika)

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Zgodba glede “odblokiranja” dvojne blokade Hormuške ožine bi bila podobna telenoveli, če ne bi imela tako resnih posledic. Očitno je, da Trump ne more prisiliti Irana, da odpre Hormuz. Očitno je, da tega ne more storiti tudi s pomorsko blokado 300 milj jugovzhodno od Hormuza, ki je hkrati porozna za iranske tankerje z nafto za Kitajsko, ki plujejo mimo ameriške blokade v teritorialnih vodah Pakistana. Očitno je, da Trump ne more odpreti Hormuza z v nedeljo objavljeno napovedjo, da bodo ameriške vojaške ladje omogočile prehod tujim tankerjem. Trump je v naslednji sapi zanikal vojaško spremstvo tankerjev. Včeraj – ko je Iran napadel dve ameriški vojaški ladji, ki sta se preveč približali Hormuzu – pa je močno zmanjšal utrpljeno škodo (po tem, ko se je ameriško vojaško poveljstvo ves dan trudilo zanikati kakršnikoli napad ali škodo), hkrati pa upravičil iranski napad na naftni terminal v Emiratih.

Edini način, da bi Trump uspel nasilno odpreti Hormuško ožino, je, če bi vojaško porazil Iran. Popolnoma. Tega pa ne more, ker ameriška vojska nima sredstev za to. Tudi v primeru jedrskega napada bi iranske rakete (najbrž opremeljene z jedrskimi konicami) še vedno letele iz iranskih podzemnih raketnih mest, vkopanih globoko v iranske gore in dizajnirane za jedrske napade. Iran je trdnjava, ki je vojaško ni mogoče poraziti.

Edini način za odprtje Hormuške ožine pelje skozi pogajanja z Iranom, vendar po iranskih pogojih. To pomeni garancijo, da ZDA in Izrael nikoli več ne bosta napadli Irana, to pomeni popolni vojaški umik ZDA iz Zaliva, to pomeni odpravo vseh sankcij na Iran in to pomeni, da Iran tudi de iure kontrolira Hormuško ožino. 

To je tudi politično, ekonomsko in vojaško najcenejši in najbolj vzdržen način za ZDA in za svet. Le da se ga Trump in njegovi izraelski lastniki še ne želijo zavedati. Še vedno brcajo v obupu.

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On 4 May 2026, I was on Glenn Diesen’s popular podcast talking with Glenn about how the US and Europe ended up in so much trouble today. We spent little time talking about the specifics of the Iran war — which is highly unusual these days — and instead concentrated on talking about the principal driving forces that have produced the chaotic and dangerous world we live in today. I emphasized that I believe the two main factors are: 1) the fundamental structural changes that have taken place in the international system since 2017 — the coming of multipolarity, the rise of China to great-power status, and the US pivot to Asia — and 2) the Trump wrecking ball, which was kept under wraps in his first term, but has been unleashed with a vengeance since he moved back into the White House in January 2025.

Direktorji največjih ameriških naftnih družb so dali košarico predsedniku Trumpu, ko jih je pozval, naj dvignejo proizvodnjo nafte, da bi lahko znižali njene cene. Vsi po vrsti pravijo, da bi sicer lahko, vendar to ni v njihovi strategiji. Njihova strategija je, da kolikor se da dolgo pobirajo smetano na trgu oziroma keširajo darilo, ki jim ga je dal Trump v obliki skoraj podvojene cene nafte po ameriško-izraelskem napadu an Iran.

Težko je reči, da nimajo racionalne strategije za razliko od Trumpa. Trump bo s svojo spodletelo “ekskurzijo” v Iran  sicer obogatil naftno in orožarsko industrijo, toda ceno bodo plačali on in republikanci na letošnjih vmesnih volitvah. Ameriški volilci so občutljivi predvsem na inflacijo in cene bencina. Tega ne oprostijo nobenemu predsedniku.

No, big oil is not at the beck and call of the White House! Exxon and Chevron defy Trump pressure to boost oil production

ExxonMobil and Chevron have defied calls from the White House to increase oil production, resisting pressure from an administration that is struggling to end the biggest energy crisis in decades. Exxon’s chief financial officer Neil Hansen told the FT there had been “no change” to the company’s strategy in the Permian Basin, the dominant US oil and gas region, while Chevron’s finance chief Eimear Bonner said “the crisis has not prompted any change to any of our plans”. The Iran war has slashed production across the Gulf and hit refining operations in the Middle East and beyond, triggering an energy shock that threatens to fuel inflation across the world. Oil prices on Thursday rose to $126 a barrel, the highest level since the start of the war, while US petrol prices have soared to more than $4 a gallon, undermining President Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to bring them below $2 and make life cheaper for Americans.

The government has released oil from the strategic petroleum reserve and called for more drilling from the industry, but the two US supermajors are holding firm on their prewar strategies. “There’s really no need for us to shift up because we’re already up, we’re already in high gear,” Hansen said. “That doesn’t mean we aren’t looking at the potential to expand that but there are limitations.” Bonner said “we could grow in the Permian but that’s not the strategy we have. Our strategy is to grow free cash flow, not grow production.” She added: “You wouldn’t expect us to be changing our plans significantly on the back of eight weeks of disruption.”

Source: Stephanie Findlay in Financial Times

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Bine Kordež

Pred časom smo lahko prebrali članek o usmeritvah SDH pri preobrazbi Šaleške doline na področju energetike. Na korporativni konferenci Slovenskega državnega holdinga so predstavili načrte, kako naj bi po zaprtju TEŠ-a energetska lokacija v Šoštanju postala sodobno energetsko vozlišče in v izvedbo tega projekta bo družba HSE vložila precejšnja finančna sredstva. Kot smo lahko prebrali, predstavlja preobrazba energetske lokacije TEŠ enega največjih razvojih projektov slovenskega energetskega sistema.

Po sprejetih načrtih je eden najbolj prepoznavnih projektov preobrazbe plavajoča sončna elektrarna (SE) na Družmirskem jezeru. To naj bi bila največja tovrstna elektrarna v Evropi. Elektrarna bo letno proizvedla 140 GWh električne energije, kar predstavlja energijo potrebno za oskrbo 35 tisoč gospodinjstev. Vzporedno naj bi postavili tudi največji baterijski hranilnik v Sloveniji. Preobrazba zajema tudi celovito prenovo  sistema daljinskega ogrevanja v Šaleški dolini, katerega danes zagotavlja TEŠ. V vse tri navedene naložbe naj bi po oceni skupaj investirali okoli 370 mio eur.

Vsekakor lahko pozitivno ocenimo odločitev, da bo država namesto opuščanja energetskega območja izvedla celovito revitalizacijo. Predstavljene informacije želijo posredovati pozitivno zgodbo glede bodočnosti Šaleške doline. Za lažje razumevanje teh načrtov ter razmer ob zaprtju TEŠ-a pa vseeno ni odveč navesti še kakšno dodatno informacijo ali podatek. Navedba, kako bodo z elektriko iz plavajoče SE lahko oskrbovali 35 tisoč gospodinjstev je ljudem še nekako blizu, mogoče tudi strošek gradnje te elektrarne v višini 110 mio eur, podatek o moči elektrarne v višini 130 MW ali 300 MW moči baterij pa običajnemu bralcu ne pove veliko. Zato poglejmo te načrte nekoliko podrobneje, vzporedno s pogledom na dosedanjo proizvodnjo elektrike in toplote na tej lokaciji.

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The orange shit-gibbon Donald Trump Attacked Rowan Atkinson — and Gets a Brutal “Lesson” He Won’t Forget

Donald Trump thought he could score some easy political points by labeling Rowan Atkinson an “offender of Jesus,” simply because Atkinson spoke openly about compassion, second chances, and the idea that God’s love doesn’t discriminate. But he picked the wrong target.

Known for his calm demeanor, intelligence, and thoughtful voice beyond comedy, Rowan Atkinson didn’t just clap back—he delivered a response grounded in awareness, conviction, and a deep understanding of real-world struggles.

“The President of the United States just said I offend Jesus,” Atkinson began, calm but firm. “You want to know what actually offends Jesus? Turning your back on the poor, the sick, and the forgotten while protecting the rich and powerful.”

And he didn’t stop there.

“You know what else offends Jesus?” he continued. “Separating families. Treating immigrants like criminals. Forgetting that most people are just trying to survive.”

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The most disturbing finding in Anthropic’s paper…

Anthropic just analyzed 1.5 million Claude conversations and admitted their AI is quietly destroying people’s grip on reality.

The paper is called “Who’s in Charge?” and the findings are worse than anything I’ve read this year.

They studied real conversations from a single week in December 2025. Real people. Real chats. No simulations.

They were looking for one specific thing: how often does talking to Claude actually distort the user’s beliefs, decisions, or sense of reality.

The numbers are devastating.

1 in 1,300 conversations led to severe reality distortion. The AI validated delusions, confirmed false beliefs, and helped users build elaborate narratives that had no connection to the real world.

1 in 6,000 conversations led to action distortion. The AI didn’t just agree with users. It pushed them into doing things they wouldn’t have done on their own. Sending messages. Cutting off people. Making decisions they’ll regret.

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What China just did with the blocking statutes against U.S. extraterritorial sanctions sets quite a major precedent, probably the financial equivalent of what happened with rare earths last year (in the sense that this is China taking a major step to push back against a U.S. hostile measure as opposed to taking it on the chin).

It’s a little complex but, to start with, what many people ignore (and will probably be surprised by) is that – by and large – Chinese companies and financial institutions have largely complied with extraterritorial U.S. sanctions.

Anecdotal story on this: I know for a fact, because I personally know the person, that a very famous guy (whose name I won’t reveal but that everyone of you would know) sanctioned by the U.S. was in China recently and tried to exchange money at the counter of a random Chinese bank. Just simply exchange dollars for a Chinese yuan, in mainland China. And he was refused, because he is sanctioned by the U.S. – despite the fact that China as a country has absolutely no problem with the person.

This goes to illustrate just how much goodwill China extended to the U.S. on this – a Chinese bank, in China, refusing to serve someone China has no problem with, just to comply with U.S. extraterritorial sanctions.

It also goes to illustrate why this blocking order marks such a sharp departure.

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Oil hitting a wartime record illustrates the Iran conflict’s continued ability to upend the world two months in.

But the geopolitical impact of the United Arab Emirates’ drive to carve out its own niche in the region may prove to be a more permanent shift.

The UAE leaving OPEC was perhaps less of a shock to the oil cartel itself. Some believe the emirates will have little choice but to continue working with it to keep global energy markets stable. Still, the UAE is likely to eventually raise production and US President Donald Trump said the move would help lower energy prices.

It’s very much in line with the UAE’s push to lead change in a post-oil era. The timing meant oil prices didn’t drop. OPEC is, after all, of little consequence while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

More difficult to predict is how the regional power play will unfold.

Gulf heavyweight Saudi Arabia hasn’t seen eye to eye with its neighbor for years. The UAE is regarded by some as causing fragmentation in an already fragile region through forging an alliance with Israel and refusing to rein in global ambitions spanning Yemen, the Horn of Africa and Sudan.

Underscoring its unilateral approach, the UAE is reconsidering its membership of two regional bodies in which Saudi Arabia holds sway — the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation — while weighing its long-term involvement in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council.

The moves could be read as an indictment of Saudi failures within the GCC and larger Arab world.

The divergent camps reflect how many now perceive the future of regional security.

An alliance led by Turkey and Saudi Arabia may emerge, and maybe down the line, one with a different Iran. Without the UAE, it may be easier for others to work together on what to do about Israel.

You can’t change geography.

But it’s hard to escape the sense that a new balance of power is arising.

Vir: Bloomberg

The relationship between the Emirates and the Saudis has been deteriorating for several years. Old grudges go back to the 1974 Jeddah Treaty, which was supposed to settle disputed borders.

The Emirates claim they were forced to hand over oil-rich territory (the Shaybah field) and a land corridor linking the country to Qatar in exchange for Saudi recognition of their independence.

In the early 2000s tensions flared again when Saudi Arabia blocked Emirati maritime infrastructure projects, claiming they crossed its territorial waters. There were even naval incidents involving coast guard vessels.

In Yemen the rift became glaringly obvious. In 2018-2019, UAE-backed forces clashed directly with troops of the internationally recognized government, which were supported by Saudi Arabia. Heavy fighting broke out in Aden, with dozens killed and wounded as separatists seized parts of the city.

A brief calm followed. Then, between December 2025 and January 2026, the STC, heavily backed by Abu Dhabi, advanced and seized the governorates of Hadramaut and Mahra, precisely the ones bordering Saudi Arabia.

Riyadh responded with airstrikes on ships and cargoes linked to the UAE, accused Abu Dhabi of threatening national security, and gave a 24-hour ultimatum for Emirati forces to leave Yemen.

After the withdrawal, the STC itself was weakened and partially dismantled.

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