Vsi bi radi hiter konec vojne. Vsi bi radi, da jo konča Trump z eno izjavo na svojem družbenem mediju. Vendar Trump nima v rokah teh kart. Vojna se bo končala, ko se bo tako odločilo iransko vodstvo. Po iranskih pogojih. Sicer bo Hormuz ostal zaprt, globalno gospodarstvo pa padlo v globoko krizo in inflacijo.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker just killed the ceasefire.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, March 10: “We are certainly not seeking a ceasefire. We believe the aggressor must be struck in the mouth. We will break this cycle of war, negotiation, ceasefire, war.”

This arrives the same day the Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s advisers privately urging an exit. Oil crashed from $119.50 to below $91. The market exhaled. Iran’s second most powerful elected official just told the world the exhale was premature.

Here is what every actor is actually doing while the ceasefire dies.

The IRGC launched Wave 33 this morning. One-ton warheads on Kheibar Shekan missiles targeting Tel Aviv and the Fifth Fleet. Codenamed “Labbayk ya Khamenei” for a Supreme Leader who has not spoken and may not be conscious. General Mousavi announced no warhead below one ton from this point forward. Thirty-one autonomous provincial commands continue firing without central orders. The doctrine does not need a ceasefire because it was built to function without one.

Seven P&I clubs, Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, Steamship Mutual, American Club, Swedish Club, London P&I, covering 90% of global tonnage, cancelled war-risk cover on 5 March under Solvency II. Zero have reinstated. Hormuz crossings collapsed from 138 daily vessels to approximately 2. Premiums surged from 0.05% to 1-3% of hull value. The DFC’s $20 billion backstop has produced zero confirmed large-scale VLCC transits. Force majeures have cascaded from QatarEnergy to Saudi Aramco to Kuwait Petroleum to Bapco to Aluminium Bahrain to Yeochun NCC Korea to Formosa Taiwan to PCS Singapore to SCC Rayong Thailand. The naphtha-to-polyethylene chain feeding Asian manufacturing is broken. Ghalibaf’s rejection ensures it stays broken.

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Včerajšnji članek iz platforme Francisa Fukuyame. Naslov je njihov. Članek ima v nadaljevanju le dve večji napaki. Prvič, Budimpeštanski sporazum Ukrajini ni vzel jedrske zaščite, ker je bila Ukrajina zgolj lansirna rampa za ruske jedrske rakete, kontroler je bil v ruskih rokah. Podobno velja danes za Belorusijo. In drugič, Severna Koreja – za razliko od Izraela – nikogar ne napada. Že 75 let. 

In 2003, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi agreed to dismantle his nascent nuclear weapons program in exchange for the West’s promises of sanctions relief and integration into the international community. Less than a decade later, in 2011, he found himself hiding in a drainage pipe with his golden pistol after NATO forces bombed his convoy. Gaddafi was dragged out of that tunnel by NATO-backed Libyan rebels, beaten, and executed for the world to see.

In Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un was taking notes. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the West treated Kim Jong Un’s father, Kim Jong Il, as a comic book villain: a cognac sipping madman who reportedly claimed to have invented the hamburger and shot 38 under par on his first ever round of golf. The madman narrative about the safari suit-wearing cult leader was comfortable for the West: it allowed them to dismiss him as a relic of the past, a man stuck in time with a starving population destined to depose him.

That comfort is now gone when it comes to North Korea, and with it comes an indictment of the entire rules-based international order. The Kim dynasty has been vindicated—not morally, not ethically, but strategically. As the global security architecture of the post-Cold War era fractures under the weight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s expansionist ambitions, and America’s reckless and illegal international military interventions, the Kims’ absolute refusal to denuclearize looks more and more sensible by the day.

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To dejstvo vsi pozabljajo: Nemčija je povzročila dve svetovni vojni, da bi zavzela svet in obe je grdo izgubila, zmagala pa je v miru s prosto trgovino in s svojo industrijo zavzela svet.

Kitajska ima podobno strategijo – medtem ko ZDA bojujejo neskončne vojne, da bi obdržali nadzor na d svetom, Kitajska zmaguje v miru prek proste trgovine. Kitajska partija je pravkar objavila nov 5-letni razvojni načrt (15-tega po vrsti), ki je posvečen razvoju. V njem se pojem umetna inteligenca pojavlja 50-krat, vojna pa niti enkrat. Kitajska bo z mirom in prosto trgovino izrinila vse, niti enega strela ji ne bo treba izstreliti za pridobitev statusa globalne gospodarske dominacije.

Kitajski vojni načrt je mir in razvoj. Če bi se ZDA in EU posvetila miru in razvoju, namesto vojnam in poskusom obvladovanja sveta prek sile, bi morda še imeli kakšno možnost proti Kitajski. Tako pa zgolj izčrpavata svoje mentalne in finančne resurse.

While the United States spends billions bombing Iran and the world watches oil prices crash, China just published the most consequential economic document of the decade. Nobody is paying attention. That is the point.

The 15th Five-Year Plan, unveiled at the National People’s Congress on 5th March, is 141 pages. It mentions artificial intelligence over 50 times. It targets 70% AI penetration across the Chinese economy by 2027 and 90% by 2030. It designates humanoid robotics as a core pillar industry with output doubling over five years. It commits to space-Earth quantum communication networks, nuclear fusion timelines, and brain-computer interfaces. It sets AI-related industries at a target value exceeding 10 trillion yuan, approximately $1.38 trillion. And it declares “extraordinary measures” for rare earths and semiconductor self-reliance.

This is not an economic plan. It is a war plan for a war the United States is not fighting because it is too busy fighting the wrong one.

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Trump je včeraj v svojem tipičnem slogu razglasil “predčasno” zmago v vojni proti Iranu. Že ure pred tem so ameriške sile dobile ukaz za evakuacijo iz vojaških baz v Zalivu, ameriški leteči tankerji pa so odleteli proti Evropi. Kar je lahko znak ameriškega enostranskega umika ali pa prihajajoče jedrske eskalacije.

Toda čeprav je Trump razglasil zmago in ukazal svojim silam pot domov, se vojna z Iranom ni končala. Vojna se bo končala, ko se bo za to odločil Iran. Kakšen bo endgame te vojne?

Endgame lahko povzamemo v štirih alinejah:

1. popoln umik ZDA iz zalivskih držav,
2. prihod Kitajske kot strateškega partnerja zalivskih držav,
3. Iran bo dobil “pravico do atomske bombe” in sankcije proti njemu bodo ukinjene,
4. uničenje Izraela.

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Cornered, Trump makes an announcement to calm the markets, but the war goes on and the strait remains closed.

Nothing has changed in the war. Trump is backed into a corner by the market, with few interceptors left, American bases being bombed, and Israel under intense bombardment.

Although Israel has been successful in suppressing footage of the strikes, the number of hospitalized victims gives us an idea of the scale of these attacks: 2,000 people hospitalized in Israel, a figure very similar to that of Iran, which is being devastated by bombs.

President Trump called President Putin, likely seeking mediation with Iran, but was rebuffed by the Iranian regime, as hours later he threatened much, much, much worse bombings if the strait was not opened.

Trump is behaving like a spoiled loser child and tomorrow will face renewed pressure from the markets, which are starting to realize he has no power over the situation.

Tonight, attacks on Tehran continue, and Iran is retaliating with more missiles against Israel.

Also this morning, refueling aircraft and others departed from Saudi Arabian airports, in a clear Iranian victory following several days of bombing that included Saudi oil facilities.

Despite the Iranian bombardment against Gulf countries, US troops maintained attacks on Iran from these territories, causing damage to the infrastructure of those nations.

The US-Israel coalition is at a loss. As they continue the bombings, they see no sign of Iran yielding; on the contrary, Iran has been destroying radars and opening a corridor for more efficient missile strikes against Israel.

It seems the war will endure for some time, and the strait will remain closed

Trump pač ni v mentalni kondiciji razumeti reliefnih kart, zgodovine in vojaške strategije.

Iran is calling our bluff because they know a ground invasion would be catastrophic for US forces.

Doing targeted strikes with Delta or DEVGRU is one thing –– doing a full scale democracy-building invasion is the dumbest possible thing we could do. They have an overwhelming strategic advantage.

We have an incredible military. Best in the world by far, no one else comes close. Still doesn’t matter here.

Iran is massive, and built like a fortress. It has 90 million people, tons of hidden bases and outposts, infinite places to ambush US troops, and more than 600,000 fighters who are ideologically motivated to fight to the death and kill as many US troops as possible.

Their landmass is 50% larger than both Iraq and Afghanistan combined. They have 5x more troops than we faced in Iraq and Afghanistan combined –– and everyone knows how those went.

These aren’t a bunch of goat herders with RPGs, either –– they have a sophisticated military, they’re better-equipped than anyone else we’ve faced in decades, and they’ve also prepared for this conflict for decades.

Further, their fighters believe they’re on a holy and righteous mission. We martyred their religious leader and humiliated their country on the world stage –– and the Persians are a very proud people. These people would gladly fight to the death for decades on end in a brutal war of attrition, honored at the opportunity to kill as many Americans as possible and eventually be martyred at the hand of the Great Satan.

Analysts estimate it would take 500,000-1M troops to secure Iran in a full-scale ground invasion. It would require decades, many trillions of dollars, and be orders of magnitude more challenging than conquering Iraq and Afghanistan combined. It’s hard to estimate how many American troops would die.

Not gonna happen. Ridiculous to even consider a full-scale ground invasion.

This stuff about the admin potentially drafting Americans for an invasion –– it’s nonsense. They’re bluffing to get Tehran to come to the table, and Tehran knows it.

That said –– if we ever were crazy enough to attempt a full-scale invasion, the Iranians would welcome it. Their country would become a graveyard for American soldiers, and the expenditures would bankrupt our country. We can’t afford to make that mistake.