Uvodni prizor (New York Times):

The black S.U.V. carrying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the White House just before 11 a.m. on Feb. 11. The Israeli leader, who had been pressing for months for the United States to agree to a major assault on Iran, was whisked inside with little ceremony, out of view of reporters, primed for one of the most high-stakes moments in his long career.

U.S. and Israeli officials gathered first in the Cabinet Room, adjacent to the Oval Office. Then Mr. Netanyahu headed downstairs for the main event: a highly classified presentation on Iran for President Trump and his team in the White House Situation Room, which was rarely used for in-person meetings with foreign leaders.

Mr. Trump sat down, but not in his usual position at the head of the room’s mahogany conference table. Instead, the president took a seat on one side, facing the large screens mounted along the wall. Mr. Netanyahu sat on the other side, directly opposite the president.

Appearing on the screen behind the prime minister was David Barnea, the director of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, as well as Israeli military officials. Arrayed visually behind Mr. Netanyahu, they created the image of a wartime leader surrounded by his team.

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Coercive bargaining does not stop when the weapons stop firing. It continues with threats and counter-threats, as each side tries to pressure the other side into concessions.

Iran has a great deal of leverage here. It has proven that the US cannot forcibly retake Hormuz, suppress Iranian fire across the gulf, protect its own assets, or coerce Iran into capitulation. It can close Hormuz outright to put pressure on the US, or selectively to punish specific actors (eg, UAE). It still retains weapons in reserve; above all, the Houthis.

The US can threaten to attack Iran again. But both sides now know that the US does not have a military solution here, so this is not a good outside option. So what can the US do to pressure Iran? Very hard to detect any powerful sources of leverage for the US.

We are faced, then, with the same “upside-down” asymmetry between the two great powers. The US may be vastly stronger in general, but it is Iran that has the clear upper hand in the negotiations.

Nori časi, ko se ameriška admninistracija s fizičnimi grožnjami loti celo moralne kritike poglavarja katoliške cerkve

Izjave ameriškega predsednika glede vojne v Iranu so namenjene predvsem manipuliranju finančnih trgov. Predvsem manipuliranju cen nafte na terminskih borzah in tečajem na finančnih borzah. Glede cen nafte velika večina ljudi, in praktično skoraj vsi novinarji (razen specializiranih), gledajo cene na terminskih borzah, predvsem tiste za 1 mesec vnaprej, in na tej osnovi sklepajo, kakšne naj bi bile jutri oziroma v naslednjih dneh cene goriv na črpalkah.

Treba je povsem jasno povedati, da objavljene kotacije cen nafte na terminskih borzah nimajo nobene neposredne povezave s tem. Na terminskih borzah se trguje s “pričakovanji glede bodočih cen nafte” (futures), medtem ko je za kupce pomembna dnevna cena doabavljive nafte (dated spot).

Spodaj je nekaj razlage glede tega in slika, ki kaže na razliko med obema.

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Če je kdo pričakoval, da začasno premirje omogoča resne možnosti, da bi dosegli kompromis glede trajnega miru na Bližnjem vzhodu, se moti. Ker se Izrael s tem ne strinja. Trumpov izraelski šef je danes to zelo jasno povedal:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – Statement on the U.S.–Iran Ceasefire

April 8, 2026

Citizens of Israel,

I want to thank you, our wonderful nation.

Today, after the Passover holiday, I address you following the announcement of a temporary two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

This ceasefire went into effect in full coordination with Israel. We were not surprised by it, and it was fully coordinated.

In the campaign that we have waged together with the United States, we have achieved tremendous achievements. We have significantly weakened Iran’s military capabilities, its nuclear program, its missile production, its economic infrastructure, and we have struck at the heart of the regime.

Iran is entering these negotiations beaten and weaker than ever before. This is the bottom line.

This is not the end of the campaign. This is a step on the way to achieving all of our objectives.

We still have additional objectives to accomplish, and we will achieve them — either by agreement or by resumption of the fighting.

We are prepared to return to combat at any moment required. Our finger is on the trigger.

As you know, this temporary ceasefire does not include our operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. We continue to strike Hezbollah forcefully. Today, Hezbollah suffered one of its hardest blows since the beeper operation.

We and the IDF are stronger than ever. Iran is weaker than ever.

We will continue to act — in full coordination with the United States — to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile, or terror threat to Israel, to the United States, to our Arab neighbors, and to the entire world.

All the enriched uranium must leave Iran — whether by agreement or by other means.

Thank you.

Vir: Official statement / Times of Israel / Jewish Virtual Library (April 8, 2026)

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Kdo še potrebuje Hollywood?

Iranci so s pomočjo umetne inteligence naredili kratek film o ponesrečeni ameriški akciji desanta na iranske jedrske objekte v Isfahanu in ponesrečen poskus vdora in kraje jedrskega materiala. Ameriška akcija se je končala že pri pristanku prvih dveh transportnih letal, ko naj bi Iranci pred pristankom zadeli drugo letalo. Nakar se je začela reševalna akcija za ameriške komandose, ki so ostali na iranskih tleh. V tej reševalni akciji naj bi po poročanju nekaterih medijev sodelovalo celo okrog 150 ameriških zračnih plovil.

14-dnevno premirje je seveda odlična novica – za Iran, za zalivske države, za Izrael, za ZDA in za svetovno gospodarstvo. Odlična novica je tudi, da je Trump pristal na pogajanja v okviru iranskih 10 točk, ki jih lahko povzamemo v 5 ključnih pogojih:

1. zaustavitev vseh sovražnosti na vseh frontah (proti Iranu, proti Libanonu, proti Gazi),
2. kredibilne garancije, da ne bo prišlo do ponovne agresije na Iran,
3. odprava vseh sankcij proti Iranu,
4. iranska (in omanska) suverenost nad Hormuško ožino, vključno s pobiranjem pristojbin za prehod,
5. prihodki od pristojbin za prehod se štejejo kot način poplačila vojne škode Iranu.

Te točke so dobro izhodišče tako za pogajanja o trajnem miru v Iranu in regiji kot za trajno izboljšanje iranskega položaja po 47 letih ilegalnih sankcij proti njemu. Dejstvo, da je Trump pristal na ta iranski okvir za pogajanja, seveda pomeni, da je tako njemu kot Izraelu močno tekla voda v grlo. Torej je moral izvesti svoj TACO. Pred katerim je maksimalno povečal svoje grožnje z “izbrisom cele civilizacije”, da je nato lahko prodal zgodbo, da je Iran tik pred zdajci zaprosil za premirje (čeprav je Iran te točke objavil že pred dnevi in čeprav je premirje predlagal pakistanski predsednik vlade). Trump pač mora nekako ohraniti obraz (če je to sploh še možno po tem porazu po “iranski vikend ekskurziji”).

To premirje sicer omogoča vsem stranem, tudi globalnemu gospodarstvu, da zajame sapo. Vendar je prezgodaj za odpiranje šampanjcev, in sicer:

1. Kritični subjekt v tem konfliktu je Izrael; ta ni pristal na nič; in tudi če bi, je njegov track record, da se v 78 letih svojega obstoja ni držal niti enega dogovorjenega in podpisanega premirja;
2. Izrael ima navado, da vedno pobije vse pogajalce na nasprotni strani, s čimer poskuša preprečiti, da bi prišlo do mirne rešitve; pod njegovim vplivom je v zadnjih 10 mesecih prav v času pogajanj z Iranom prišlo do izraelsko-ameriškega napada na Iran.
3. Treba je pričakovati, da bo Izrael prekršil premirje z zahrbtnim napadom na Iran – bodisi na njegovo vodstvo prav v času pogajanj, bodisi na iranske kritične kapacitete (jedrska elektrarna, jedrski objekti, energetska infrastruktura, dekliška šola…). To je v naravi Izraela – totalna agresivnost, zloba in zahrbtnost. Dokler bo Izrael obstajal, na Bližnjem vzhodu ne bo miru. To je empirično dejstvo.
4. Izrael in ZDA bosta premirje izkoristila, da zajameta sapo in da lahko nemoteno napolnita vojaške depoje, da bi lahko spet nadaljevala z vojno.
5. Tudi če pride do takojšnjega odprtja Hormuške ožine, bo zaradi tehničnih razlogov (prepustnost koridorja, iranska kontrola nad prometom) trajalo najmanj 3-4 mesece, da se zaostanki odpravijo in da se vzpostavi nazaj prejšnji promet. V vmesnem času pa pomeni izpad energentov in surovin za obdobje 6 tednov, ker ta tovor ni prišel do naročnikov.
6. Približno polovica ključne naftne infrastrukture v Zalivu je bila v času spopadov uničena, celoten LNG pogon v Katarju je bil uničen, savdski petrokemijski obrat, ključen za proizvodnjo plastike, polimerov in helija je bil delno uničen, uničen je bil velik del obratov za proizvodnjo umetnih gnojil itd.
7. Zato bo tudi po odprtju Hormuza  potrebno nekaj let (3 do 5 let), da se vzpostavi nekdanji izvoz ključnih energentov in surovin in zato bodo cene energentov in surovin dlje časa (nekaj let) ostale povišane.
8. V primeru izraelske enostranske prekinitve premirja in v primeru, da ne pride do dogovora med Iranom in ZDA, bo prišlo do novih zaostritev in do nadaljevanja vojne in prekinitve transportnih tokov energentov in surovin.

Danes imamo samo premirje. Krhko premirje. In tega premirja ne smete interpretirati kot mirovnega dogovora, pač pa samo kot začasno in krhko prekinitev sovražnosti.

Čeprav vsi upamo in molimo za trajni mir, je bistveno prezgodaj za odpiranje šampanjcev.

Resnično fascinantno je, kako je Trump z nepremišljenim in nespametnim začetkom vojne proti Iranu z eno potezo zradiral 47 let ameriškega (ilegalnega) stiskanja Irana in 52 let ameriške petrodolarske vladavine na bližnjem vzhodu in kako je iz osamljenega in geopolitično minornega Irana ustvaril četrto veliko silo sveta. Iranu to ne bi nikoli prišlo niti na misel, niti mu svet tovrstne enostranske akcije ne bi odobraval. Z eno idiotsko potezo Trumpa je nova geopolitična vloga Irana s kontrolo Hormuške ožine postala naravna in samoumevna.

Trumpu bodo morali Iranci nekoč postaviti spomenik. V čistem zlatu.

This is a crucial point on Iran by Chas Freeman, the former US Assistant Secretary of Defense and, relevant to the topic, former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (also, incidentally, one of the very rare former senior US officials who’s a genuinely thoughtful diplomat as opposed to a sociopathic neocon).

What Freeman explains is that Iran’s control of Hormuz, which Trump implicitly admitted is beyond the US’s ability to contest (by saying in his speech it’s not his problem to solve, that “others” should deal with it), will necessarily lead to a reshaping of the regional order in Iran’s favor.

As Freeman says, “the Gulf Arabs have no alternative but to negotiate with Iran because they cannot survive indefinitely with the Strait of Hormuz closed to their exports.” Meanwhile, countries like China, India, Japan, and Turkey have already worked out transit agreements with Tehran – de-facto recognizing Iranian authority over the strait.

In effect, Iranian control of Hormuz is now a fait accompli: they control the valve on the single largest concentration of hydrocarbon exports on earth. This is a long-term reality with immense implications.

In fact it’s such a massive long-term win for Iran that the way the war may ironically be remembered by history is Trump giving Tehran the ideal casus belli to seize control of Hormuz – something the world would have never accepted had they done it unprovoked.

It remains to be seen how the war ends – if it ends at all – but this may end up proving even more valuable to Iran than nuclear weapons.

For instance, as Freeman points out, one of the conditions Iran set for Hormuz passage is an end to sanctions and hostility toward them. The logical endpoint is the collapse of the entire sanctions regime – Iran trading openly with the world (save, presumably, for the US and Israel), without having to make any guarantees on its nuclear program.

In other words Trump tore up the JCPOA calling it “the worst deal in history,” and his war may have replaced it with something infinitely more favorable to Tehran.