They told the whole world to avoid China. Decouple. De-risk. Sanctions. Tariffs. War rhetoric.

Then 12 US capitalists flew to Beijing to beg the Communist Party for deals.

Elon Musk. Top CEOs. Trump himself. All in China. Smiling. Shaking hands. Asking for business.

The same politicians who call China an “evil empire” are now standing in Beijing with their hands out.

Told Africa to stay away from China. Told Europe to cut ties. Told everyone China is a threat.

But when their economy is burning, when their factories are shutting, when their own system is failing, where do they run?

Beijing.

They do not believe their own lies. They just want you to.

Hypocrisy has no borders. But neither does desperation.

Pojem »recesije partnerstev« je postal zelo popularen na področju demografije. V zadnjem času ga je močno populariziral John Burn-Murdoch v Financial Timesu januarja 2025 (takrat sem ga povzel tukaj na blogu), nato pa so ga prevzeli The Economist, Population Europe in različni demografi. Anna Rotkirch ga uporablja kot analitični okvir za Evropo: mladi vse redkeje vstopajo v trajne, zavezujoče partnerske odnose, redkeje živijo skupaj, se poročajo ali imajo otroke (Burn-Murdoch, 2025).

Pomen izraza je širši od »manj porok«. Označuje upad partnerskega povezovanja kot življenjskega vzorca: več samskosti, manj skupnega bivanja, manj stabilnih zvez, manj zmenkov, manj zgodnjih romantičnih izkušenj in več odlašanja z družino. Zato je pojem povezan tako z rodnostjo kot z dobrobitjo, osamljenostjo, socialno neenakostjo in duševnim zdravjem. Rotkirch posebej poudarja, da partnerstvo ostaja močan napovednik dobrobiti, zlasti pri moških in v starejših letih (Rotkirch, 2025).

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Anna Rotkirch v članku v Population Europe o »recesiji partnerstev« opozarja, da mladi Evropejci danes bistveno redkeje vstopajo v stabilne in dolgotrajne partnerske odnose kot prejšnje generacije. Samskost narašča: vedno več mladih živi samih ali brez romantičnega partnerja, hkrati pa so partnerske zveze bolj krhke in manj trajne. Tudi tam, kjer pari začnejo živeti skupaj, kot na severu Evrope, se redkeje odločajo za poroko ali otroke. Ta trend spremljajo tudi drugi znaki sprememb v intimnem življenju, kot so manj spolnih odnosov in manj dolgoročnih zvez, kar kaže na globlji premik v načinu, kako mladi oblikujejo odnose.

Ta pojav ni omejen na Evropo, temveč je del širšega globalnega trenda, ki zajema tudi Vzhodno Azijo in Latinsko Ameriko. Ključno sporočilo je, da ne gre zgolj za upad rodnosti, ampak za širšo družbeno transformacijo: vse več ljudi ostaja samskih ali v nestabilnih odnosih. Kot poudarjajo analize v Financial Timesu, je porast samskosti morda celo bolj temeljna sprememba kot upad rojstev, saj preoblikuje samo strukturo družbe in način organizacije vsakdanjega življenja.

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What’s going on? Are neocons having a come-to-Jesus moment?

After Bob Kagan writing an article on how the U.S. is facing “total defeat” in Iran (see https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2053741799047655462?s=20), you now have Max Boot – the very author of “The Case for American Empire” and one of the most vocal advocates for the Iraq war – publishing a Washington Post interview explaining that China has surpassed the U.S. in most military domains.

If anything, Boot’s interview is even more devastating than Kagan’s piece, because it’s not editorial opinion – he’s interviewing John Culver, a former top CIA analyst (he was national intelligence officer for East Asia) and one of the world’s foremost authorities on the Chinese military which he’s been studying since 1985.

This isn’t a pundit opining – this is someone who spent decades inside the intelligence community staring at the actual data.

So what is Culver saying?

1) In case of war with Taiwan, the U.S. will flee the theater

This is undoubtedly the single most stunning revelation in the entire piece. Culver says that – as far as he is aware – the Pentagon’s plan in case of war with Taiwan is… flee!

This is the exact quote: “I think some of the thinking in the Pentagon, and it may have evolved since I retired, is that when we think there’s going to be a war, we need to get our high-value naval assets out of the theater, and then we would have to fight our way back in. From where, it’s not clear. Guam is no bastion either.”

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Najprej ni bilo nič videti. Potem je bilo obdobje Covida. Še vedno nič. Nakar je prišlo post-covidno odpiranje. In nenadoma se je iz nič pojavila kitajska raketa – strma krivulja izvoza kitajskih avtomobilov. 2 milijona leta 2021. 3 milijone leta 2022. 5 milijonov leta 2023. 6 milijonov leta 2024. In Kitajska je iz nič v vsega 4 letih pri izvozu avtomobilov prehitela najprej Južno Korejo leta 2022. Nato Nemčijo leta 2023. In nato še Japonsko leta 2024.

Toda to je bil šele začetek. Konec lanskega leta (2025) je kitajski izvoz avtomobilov presegel 8 milijonov, letos naj bi presegel že 12 milijonov.

Vir: Brad Setser

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Julia Mendel je bila prva tiskovna predstavnica ukrajinskega predsednika Volodimirja Zelenskega, kjer je vodila mednarodne komunikacije ukrajinskega predsedniškega urada med pandemijo covida-19 in na začetku ruske agresije. Po odhodu iz urada je napisala knjigo The Fight of Our Lives, v kateri opisuje svoje izkušnje, ozadje ukrajinske politike in vojno, ter nadaljuje z novinarskim delom in kritičnimi komentarji aktualnih dogodkov v Ukrajini. Velja za prepoznavno figuro ukrajinske javne scene, znano po izkušnjah v mednarodnih odnosih in kriznih komunikacijah.

• 0:00 How Did Mendel Begin Working for Zelensky?
• 11:29 Why Hasn’t US Media Covered Zelensky’s Scandals?
• 25:30 Zelensky’s Relationship With Joe Biden
• 32:45 Is Zelensky Himself Corrupt?
• 36:44 Who Does Zelensky Actually Listen To?
• 42:45 Zelensky’s Use of the Frontlines as Punishment
• 50:17 Why Hasn’t Western Media Spoken up for Ukrainians?
• 1:03:32 Why Do Western Countries Want the War to Continue?
• 1:09:16 Does Zelensky Do Coke?
• 1:13:04 What’s Zelensky’s Wife Like?
• 1:14:56 Mendel’s Experience Living Through the Ukraine War
• 1:18:27 Is There Any Way to Get Rid of Zelensky?
• 1:23:42 Why Are There So Many Americans Always in Ukraine?
• 1:32:35 Mendel’s Message to Putin

There’s no overstating how extraordinary this Atlantic article is, given the author and the outlet.

As a reminder Bob Kagan is:

• The co-founder of Project for the New American Century, probably the single most imperialist Think Tank in Washington (which is quite a feat)
• A man who spent his entire life advocating for American military interventions, especially in the Middle East, and a vocal advocate of the Iraq war. He started advocating for intervention in Iraq before 9/11, which speaks for itself…
• The husband of Victoria Nuland, an extremely hawkish former senior U.S. official (a key architect of U.S. policy in Ukraine, with the consequences we all witness today)
• The brother of Frederick Kagan, one of the key architects of the Iraq surge

In other words, we ain’t exactly looking at some sort of anti-imperialist peacenik. This is quite literally the guy Dick Cheney called when he needed a pep talk.

And the man is writing in The Atlantic, the most reliably pro-war mainstream media outlet in the U.S. (also quite a feat).

So when HE writes that the U.S. “suffered a total defeat” in Iran that has no precedent in U.S. history and can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” it’s the functional equivalent of Ronald McDonald telling you the burgers aren’t great: it means the burgers really, really aren’t great.

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