Toda čeprav je edina racionalna varianta, ki pomeni najnižje stroške za Trumpa in ZDA, takojšen umik, pa je verjetnost, da se bo Trumpo zanjo odločil, dokaj majhna. Ujel se je v vojno, ki je ne more zmagati, v vojno, ki njemu, njegovi stranki in njegovi državi škodi in vojno, katere nadaljevanje bo pomenilo katastrofo (tako ekonomsko kot strateško), tako za geostrateški položaj ZDA kot za obstoj Izraela, vendar mu ego ne dovoljuje izhoda. Zato se bo odločil za samomor – za eskalacijo. Tipična eskalacijska past. Tako je propadla večina imperijev – ena vojna preveč.

There are three theories of air power. We know Douhetist terror bombing has never destroyed the will of the enemy to fight. Decapitation has now failed. As long as the US remains ‘up in the air’ there is only one path to avoiding strategic defeat: winning the interdiction war to disarm Iran.

The interdiction theory of victory is ‘analytically attractive’ because it empirically testable in real time. If Iranian strike tempo is dwindling to zero, the US is winning; otherwise it is losing outright.

The all-important interdiction war is going very poorly. I look at the attached map every day from ACLED, the gold standard of conflict data (https://acleddata.com/iran-crisis-live). Iranian strike tempo shows no sign of dwindling.

To the contrary, depletion of interceptor inventories and the use of heavier missiles has dramatically increased the effectiveness of Iranian missile strikes, as we are seeing in the strikes on Israel. 

The Iranians’ interdiction/counterforce campaign has  been surprisingly successful. At least 10 radars have been destroyed, partially blinding US forces and interceptor systems. US bases in the region have been largely evacuated, forcing the US to use European bases.

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Tudi Goldman Sachs in International Energy Agency potrjujeta, kar sem tudi že sam pisal pred dvema tednoma, da bo sedanji naftni šok največji v zgodovini – večji kot kombinacija šokov 1979 in 2022. Tudi če bi jutri dobili mirovni sporazum med ZDA in Iranom ter odprtje Hormuške ožine, bi trajalo še najmanj 3-4 mesece, preden bi se naftni trg spet normaliziral. In cene nafte naj bi ostale povišane  – na ravni okrog 80 $/sodček do 2029 (za 20 $/sodček oziroma za eno tretjino višje kot pred vojno).

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V četrtek je “plačilni dan”. V četrtek naj bi na zahtevo Trumpa in Ursule von der Leyen Evropski parlament ratificiral sramotni trgovinski “dogovor” med ZDA in EU. In sramotno je, da EU prostovoljno rine v bistveno dražjo odvisnost od ZDA. Vsakomur, ki ima minimum pojma o poslovnem svetu ali o življenju, je jasno, da je pogajalsaka moč največja, ko imaš na voljo alternative, in najmanjša oziroma ničelna, ko nimaš nobene alternative. Le tem ženskam, ki vodijo EU, to ni jasno.

President Trump just told 450 million Europeans: sign my deal by Thursday or I cut your gas. And if you think this is impulsive, you are not paying attention. This is the most calculated energy play in American history.

Qatar’s LNG is offline. Force Majeure. Ras Laffan shut after Iranian drones hit it on Day 3. Seventeen percent of global LNG capacity gone for 3 to 5 years. Russia’s pipeline gas to Europe was severed after Ukraine. Norway is maxed. Europe’s LNG prices have surged 35 to 50 percent since Hormuz closed. One supplier remains at scale: the United States. Trump’s ambassador to the EU just told the Parliament: ratify the $750 billion trade deal without amendments by Thursday March 26, or lose “favorable access” to American LNG.

Now decode the strategic geopolitical chess game which is being played in realtime.

Saturday night, Trump posted a 48-hour ultimatum threatening to obliterate Iranian power plants. That was not about Iran. That was about oil prices. He needed them high enough to terrify Europe into ratifying the LNG deal, but not so high that American consumers revolted before the midterms. The ultimatum spiked Brent past $113 and WTI past $100 on Sunday. Monday morning, Trump posted about “productive conversations” and paused the power plant strikes for five days. Oil crashed over 10 percent in hours. WTI hit $89. The S&P surged $2 trillion.

He spiked oil to create the fear. Then crashed it to create the relief. The fear makes Europe sign. The relief makes American voters forgive the war. Both moves serve the same president. Both happened within 36 hours. Both were executed with social media posts, not missiles.

The $750 billion deal is the permanent monetisation of Europe’s energy vulnerability. LNG. Oil. Civil nuclear. Locked in until 2028. The EU had been delaying ratification for months. Three wars removed every alternative: Iran removed Qatar, Ukraine removed Russia, Norway’s geology removed Norway. What remains is American LNG. Trump is not selling gas. He is selling the absence of alternatives.

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Gledano iz vidika politične usmerjenosti se je na včerajšnjih volitvah zgodil masivni obrat v desno. Tak obrat sem napovedoval pred dvema mesecema in nato še enkrat pred enim mesecem. Vendar pa je v številkah ta obrat večji, kot je bilo za pričakovati glede na javnomnenjske ankete. Če je bilo na volitvah 2022 razmerje moči izrazito nagnjeno v korist strank leve sredine, podatki za leto 2026 kažejo močno okrepitev bloka desne sredine in hkratno oslabitev levega centra. Ta sprememba ni pomembna le z vidika koalicijske matematike, temveč ima tudi neposredne posledice za razvojne prioritete države, investicijsko okolje in oblikovanje javnih politik.

Če upoštevamo vse stranke, ki so nastopale na volitvah (in ne le tistih, ki so prestopile parlamentarni prag) in njihovo prevladujočo politično usmeritev, se je na teh volitvah blok leve sredine zmanjšal iz približno 683.000 glasov v letu 2022 (okoli 57,3 % vseh glasov) na približno 525.500 glasov v letu 2026 (okoli 47,5 %). Nasprotno se je blok desne sredine povečal iz približno 509.000 glasov (42,7 %) na približno 610.500 glasov (52,5 %). Gre za izrazit preobrat v razmerju moči med političnima blokoma, saj je leva sredina izgubila skoraj 10 odstotnih točk v volilnih glasovih, ki jih je pridobila desna sredina. Drugače rečeno – leva sredina je izgubila 130 tisoč volilcev, desna sredina pa jih je pridobila 101 tisoč (preostanek gre na račun nekoliko manjše volilne udeležbe kot v 2022).

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Dobra analiza:

One thing about Trump is predictable: his unpredictability. When he acts, there is no warning, only impact. Surprise is not a tactic for him, it is the strategy.

So when he speaks, don’t listen to the words: decode the intent.

He entered this war without warning, even as negotiations were ongoing. He allowed Israel to strike Iranian gas infrastructure, then distanced himself when Iran retaliated. He was probing Iran’s response threshold.

Which is why this so-called “48-hour ultimatum” should be read correctly. If Trump truly intended to strike, he wouldn’t telegraph it.

The same applies when he talks about winding down the war. Markets, oil prices, and political optics matter more to him than battlefield outcomes. A prolonged war weakens him on all three fronts.

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Obvezno branje.

Tole ne bo in ne more biti všeč tistim, ki so začeli vojno proti Iranom in tistim, ki jo podpirajo:

A message to Washington?

In a tightly structured 12-minute address, Ayatollah Imam Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei moved from familiar rhetoric into something far more consequential. The opening half followed the expected script; revisiting decades of U.S. warmongering rhetoric: sanctions, assassinations, regional conflicts.

But midway through, the tone shifted from retrospective to strategic.

Sayyed Khamenei outlined three concrete demands, each with a defined timeline: a rapid U.S. military withdrawal from the Middle East, a full rollback of sanctions within 60 days, and long-term financial compensation for economic damages.

Then came the ultimatum. Fail to comply, and Iran escalates, economically, militarily, and potentially nuclearly. Not hypothetically, but operationally: closing the Strait of Hormuz, formalizing defense ties with Russia and China, and moving from ambiguity to declared nuclear deterrence.

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Eskalacija v vojni ZDA proti Iranu je šla bistveno predaleč:

• uničevanje celotne energetske infrastrukture v Zalivu, kar pomeni fizično globalno umanjkaanje petine nafte in LNG, tretjine umetnih gnojil in dveh petin žvepla. Ne gre več za koliko dni / tednov ne bo nafte, pač pa za koliko let ne bo nafte, LNG, gnojil, žvepla;
• Izrael in Iran sta izmenjala napade na (ali vsaj v bližino) jedrskih kapacitet
• Trump je še zaostril retoriko z 48-urnim ultimatom glede odprtja Hormuške ožine, sicer naj bi ameriške sile porušile vso iransko energetsko infrastrukturo,; Iran je vrnil z grožnjo vse energetske infrastrukture in naprav za desalinizacijo v državah na Bližnjem vzhodu, ki omogočajo ameriške napade z njihovega ozemlja.

Čas je, da Kitajska in Rusija začneta z diplomatsko kampanjo, da se konča ta vojna med ZDA in Iranom. Kajti naslednji korak je popolno uničenje energetske infrastrukture in nato jedrska opcija. Celoten svet lahko pade v dolgotrajno stagflacijo (v slogu 1970-1982) ali v totalno tretjo svetovno vojno.

Oboje je treba preprečiti, dokler je sploh še možno.

Edino Kitajska in Rusija imata to moč kot zunanji opazovalki, da lahko diplomatsko posredujeta za dokončanje te vojne.

Ko so 28. februarja 2026 ameriški in izraelski bombniki poleteli proti Iranu, so načrtovalci v Pentagonu pričakovovali hiter in odločilen udar, ki bi za vedno spremenil ravnotežje moči v regiji. Namesto tega so sprožili verižno reakcijo, ki utegne pomeniti začetek konca ameriške globalne hegemonije.

To, kar se zdaj dogaja v Hormuški ožini, bo zgodovina najverjetneje zapisala kot prelomnico, primerljivo z letom 1956, ko je izguba nadzora nad Sueškim prekopom Britaniji dokončno pokazala, da ni več imperij, na katerem sonce nikoli ne zaide. Ko je egiptovski predsednik Naser leta 1956 nacionaliziral Sueški prekop, sta Velika Britanija in Francija v zavezništvu z Izraelom poskušali vojaško obnoviti nadzor. A ne le da nista uspeli – operacija je pospešila njun propad kot kolonialnih sil in dokončno potrdila, da sta novi velesili ZDA in Sovjetska zveza.

Danes se podobna dinamika odvija v Perzijskem zalivu. Vlogo zahajajoče velesile igrajo ZDA.

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What just happened?

At 2:30 PM ET today, CBS News reported that President Trump was considering “boots on the ground” in Iran.

Then, at 3:43 PM ET, President Trump said “I don’t want to do a ceasefire with Iran,” with the S&P 500 hitting a new 2026 low.

Exactly 90 minutes later, at 5:13 PM ET, President Trump said the US is “considering winding down” the war with Iran.

Between the 3:43 PM ET and 5:13 PM ET comments, the S&P 500 had already risen nearly +1% on NO news.

By 6:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +1.8% from its low, adding +$900 BILLION in market cap.

Markets are now closed until Monday.