Hormuška ožina zaprta že deveti dan. Svetovno gospodarstvo je pred dogodkom, ki je lahko največji energetski šok v sodobni zgodovini. Ne govorimo o običajni motnji v dobavi, temveč o zaprtju ene ključnih arterij globalnega energetskega sistema. Skozi Hormuško ožino vsak dan potuje približno 20 milijonov sodov nafte, kar predstavlja okoli 20 % svetovne porabe nafte, ter približno 20 % svetovne trgovine z utekočinjenim plinom (LNG). Če ta tok obstane, se svet v nekaj dneh znajde v položaju, kjer se iz globalnega trga nenadoma umakne petina ključnega energenta. In prav to se zdaj dogaja.

Cena nafte se je v zadnjih dneh dramatično povečala. Včeraj, 8. marca 2026, so se cene na svetovnih trgih gibale med 107 in 109 dolarji za sod. Ameriški benchmark WTI je bil na ravni okoli 108–109 dolarjev za sod, mednarodni benchmark Brent pa približno med 107 in 109 dolarji. Gre za enega najhitrejših cenovnih skokov v sodobni zgodovini naftnih trgov. V primerjavi s prejšnjim tednom, po začetku vojne proti Iranu, ko so se cene gibale približno med 65 in 75 dolarji za sod, to pomeni rast za več kot 40 do 60 % v manj kot 10 dneh. V zadnjem tednu so cene narasle za približno 28 do 35 %, kar je največji tedenski skok za WTI od leta 1983. Analitiki opozarjajo, da bi lahko daljše zaprtje Hormuške ožine potisnilo cene proti 120 ali celo 150 dolarjem za sod.

Toda bistvo problema ni le cena. Bistvo je fizična razpoložljivost energije. Če energija izgine, se ustavi gospodarstvo.

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Hipersonična faza, naftni šok, inflacija, finančni kolaps…

Za Izraelce je to versko imperialistična vojna, za ZDA pa predvsem vojna proti Kitajska. Cilj je Kitajski omejiti dostop do energentov. To je edini še dosegljiv način, kako Kitajski preprečiti, da gospodarsko (in vojaško) preseže ZDA. Zato je ta vojna za Kitajsko enako preživetvena kot za Iran.

US planners likely realized as a result of attrition in its proxy war on Russia and considering the outcome of ongoing war with Iran in the Middle East, that even a “distant blockade” in the Asia-Pacific against China was unlikely to succeed.

Degrading or toppling Iran was already a prerequisite to further isolating Russia and then China, thus attacking Iran and shutting down energy exports from the entire region, no matter the cost, has effectively implemented the “distant blockade” on China at the very source of most of China’s energy imports.

At the same time, the US continues expanding its international blockade against the so-called “shadow fleet” through maritime drone strikes attributed to “Ukraine” and the interdiction and seizure of vessels by US proxies and in the case of Venezuela, by the US itself.

This can be expanded to target ALL Russian and Chinese maritime shipping – not just energy shipments.

Note that the US invaded and captured Venezuela, halting energy exports to China in the lead up to this second war of aggression targeting the majority of China’s remaining energy imports from the Middle East.

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Kot so nekateri napovedovali – te vojne proti Iranu ne bo odločalo orožje ali nafta, ampak voda. Zmagal bo tisti, ki bo odločal o tem, ali in katere zalivske države bodo imele dostop do pitne vojne. Zalivske države imajo vse razloge, da se ne pridružijo vojni ZDA in Izraela proti Iranu. Ne toliko zaradi strahu pred bombardiranjem njihovih nahajališč in terminalov nafte in plina, pa zaradi strahu pred bombardiranjem njihovih ključnih obratov za razsoljevanje vode. 100 nilijonov ljudi v regiji je odvisno od dostopa do te vode in izmed 1.600 obratov je 10 mega obratov za razsoljevanje, ki so lahko strateške tarče. In ZDA so danes – spet – kot prve izpustile hudiča iz steklenice z razstrelitvijo iranskega obrata za razsoljevanje vode.

Two days ago I wrote that the most dangerous signal in this war was not what Iran was hitting but what it was not hitting. Desalination plants. Eight of the ten largest on earth sit on the Arabian Peninsula. One hundred million people drink what they produce. Iran had the coordinates and the capability. It was choosing restraint. The restraint was the weapon. And the hand that held the leash was dead.

The leash just snapped.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X on March 7 that the United States struck a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island with missiles launched from its base in Bahrain. He said water supply to 30 villages was cut. His exact words: “The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.”

That sentence is the most dangerous statement issued by any government official since this war began.

No independent verification exists. No satellite imagery. No Pentagon confirmation or denial. CNN, BBC, and Reuters report it as an Iranian accusation. The claim is unverified. That does not make it less dangerous. What matters is not whether the strike happened. What matters is that Iran has publicly framed a desalination attack as an American precedent.

Precedent is permission. Iran struck a US base in Bahrain within hours, framed as retaliation for the desalination hit. Whether the original strike was real or fabricated, the rhetorical architecture for targeting Gulf water plants is now constructed. The thirty one autonomous IRGC commands possess a publicly articulated rationale for striking desalination facilities anywhere in the Gulf.

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Lanska junijska »dvanajstdnevna vojna« je razkrila ključno slabost sistemov, ki temeljijo na ameriškem GPS-u – njihovo ranljivost za elektronsko motenje. Iran je s prehodom na uporabo kitajskega sistema BeiDou-3 dobil robustnejšo navigacijo z zaščito pred motenjem, bistveno večjo natančnostjo in celo možnostjo dvosmerne komunikacije z orožjem med letom in preusmerjanja, kar bistveno zmanjšuje učinkovitost izraelskih motilnih taktik. Posledično se tehnološko ravnotežje premika: medtem ko ZDA še vedno računajo na prevlado elektronskega bojevanja prek ameriškega GPS, pa kombinacija satelitskega nadzora prek kitajskega sistema pozicioniranja, ki ga ni mogoče motiti, in “pametnega” orožja ustvarja novo, bolj odpor­no verigo napada. Ki ga Iran v tem tednu vojne očitno učinkovito izrablja.

The June 2025 “Twelve-Day War” was a watershed moment that exposed the fatal vulnerability of GPS-reliant systems to Western electronic warfare. By pivoting to China’s BeiDou-3 (BDS-3), Iran has dismantled Israel’s traditional aerial “denial of service” strategy.

1. Hardened Signal Resilience

Unlike the civilian-grade GPS signals that were paralyzed in 2025, BDS-3’s military-tier B3A signal is essentially unjammable. It utilizes complex frequency hopping and Navigation Message Authentication (NMA), which prevents “spoofing.” Israeli jammers can no longer trick drones into false coordinates; the BDS-3 hardware simply rejects the interference, maintaining a 98% positioning success rate.

2. Surgical Accuracy

BDS-3 provides a triple-frequency architecture as standard. This allows Iranian missiles to eliminate ionospheric errors in real-time, achieving a Circular Error Probability (CEP) of under 5 meters. This transforms Iranian “area-saturation” tactics into surgical strike capabilities against hardened Israeli command nodes.

3. The “2,000 km Switch”

The most disruptive feature is the Short Message Communication (SMC). BDS-3 is not just a beacon; it is a two-way tactical data link. This allows Iranian commanders to communicate with weapons 2,000 km away in mid-flight.

• Tactical Re-tasking: If Chinese spy satellites detect a Patriot battery or an F-15E lock, a 560-bit “instruction packet” is sent via satellite to the drone.

• Logic Activation: The drone instantly activates a pre-programmed avoidance logic—switching from a standard flight path to unpredictable high-G maneuvers or sea-skimming profiles.

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Ni dobrih možnosti. Samo slabe, še slabše in nepredstavljive.

Day 8 of the Iran war and the President is cornered. Here are his only moves:

OPTION 1: Declare victory and retreat.

→ The U.S. loses the Middle East FOREVER

→ Israel’s days become numbered

→ Iran rebuilds and comes back STRONGER

→ America looks weak to every adversary on Earth

→ Trump’s legacy = another Afghanistan

OPTION 2: Boots on the ground.

→ Massive American casualties — GUARANTEED

→ Iran is the size of Alaska, 90M people, ALL mountains

→ The U.S. couldn’t beat the Taliban in 20 years with full NATO support

→ Iranian drones are shredding conventional military strategy

→ New generation of Iranian commanders are SMARTER than the ones killed

→ No exit strategy. None.

OPTION 3: Nuclear weapons.

→ The moment a nuke hits Iran — the ENTIRE world turns against America

→ Russia and China enter the chat IMMEDIATELY

→ Pakistan — Iran’s nuclear neighbor — retaliates

→ Radiation poisons the entire region INCLUDING Israel

→ M.A.D. protocol activated. Civilization at stake.

Here’s what nobody wants to say out loud:

The U.S. has the greatest air force in history. 8 days of bombing. And all they’ve achieved is political assassinations of leaders who were too arrogant to hide.

Iran’s missile launches dropped from 350 on Day 1 to 15 on Day 8 — but their drones keep coming. Their proxies keep firing. Hezbollah just CAPTURED an IDF soldier. Saudi oil fields are under attack.

The old playbook doesn’t work anymore. Drone warfare changed everything. China itself said: “You are not prepared for this.”

Trump is stuck between retreat, quagmire, and armageddon.

There is no good option. Only bad, worse, and unthinkable.

Po čem si bomo zapomnili odhajajočo vlado? Po tem, da se je v njenem mandatu gospodarska rast ohladila na le še 1.1 % v letu 2025, industrijska proizvodnja se je skrčila za 4.4 %, na lestvici konkurenčnosti IMD je Slovenija zdrsnila za 8 mest in davčni primež se je povečal. Je pa podelila veliko bonbončkov ob koncu mandata. To kaže, da fokus vlade ni bil razvoj, pač pa prerazdeljevanje.

Mandat te vlade si bomo zapomnili po  delitvi »denarja drugih« – po uvedbi obvezne božičnice, dvigu minimalne plače na tisoč evrov, povišanju plač za zaposlene v javnem sektorju za desetino, uvedbi prispevka za dolgotrajno oskrbo in znižanju oskrbnin v domovih starejših. Zapomnili si jo bomo po ponesrečeni davčni reformi, ko je namesto uvedbe davka na nepremičnine raje povišala obdavčitev dobičkov podjetij in samostojnih podjetnikov. Slednjim so se pogoji poslovanja tako zaostrili, da se je prvič po kovidni krizi število navoustanovljenih sp-jev zmanjšalo glede na leto prej, število izbrisanih sp-jev pa se je povečalo na rekordno raven. In to vlado si bomo zapomnili po verbalnem in dejanskem preganjanju podjetij v iskanje bolj ugodnih pogojev poslovanja v Hrvaški.

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Izraelsko – ameriški napad na Iran pred natanko enim tednom bo šel v zgodovino kot ena najslabše pripravljenih vojaških akcij v sodobni zgodovini. Res moraš biti genij, da se lotiš največje vojaške sile na Bližnjem vzhodu z vikend napadom, s trikrat manj aviacije, letalonosilk in bojnih ladij in šestkrat manj vojske kot v primeru napada na Irak (2003). Res moraš biti genij, da se lotiš te vojne brez da bi zapolnil izpraznjena skladišča protizračnih raket v svojih bazah in pri zaveznikih. Res moraš biti genij, da v času največjega muslimanksega praznika(Ramadan) ubiješ njihovega verskega voditelja in nato pozoveš njegove podanike naj naredijo državni udar. Res moraš biti genij, da se lotiš vojne sredi naftnega središča sveta, brez da bi prej napolnil domače strateške naftne rezerve, pri čemer ima napadena država popolno kontrolo nad logističnimi vrati (Hormuška ožina) za 20 % svetovne nafte in 30 % utekočinjenega plina, posledica česa je lahko gromozanski naftni šok. Res moraš biti genij, da štiri leta sankcioniraš uvoz ruske nafte, nato pa v enem popoldnevu odpraviš te sankcije, da bi zmanjšal velikost naftnega šoka. Res moraš biti genij, da se lotiš vojne, ki je v nobeni teoriji ne moreš zmagati.

Za kaj takšnega res moraš biti – Trump. Zelo stabilen genij.

No, izid te vojne ne bo samo najbolj boleč ameriški poraz v zgodovini, uničenje Izraela in izguba ameriškega nadzora nad Bližnjim vhodom, izid bo tudi popolna razgalitev ameriške vojaške rutine pred Kitajsko.  Kitajska s svojim satelitskim sistemom v realnem času snema vsakršno ameriško vojaško potezo, vse vojaške baze, vso namestitev in uporabo vojaške tehnike, vse premike in beleži vzorce delovanja. Za čas, ko se bo morala odzvati na neposredni ali posredni aneriški napad v njeni soseščini. Kitajska ameriške operacije v tej vojni opazuje kot realno vojaško simulacijo. Spoznava nasprotnika v popolni sliki,

The war involving the US and Israel is being monitored and recorded in real time by LEO satellite constellations such as Jilin-1, which are even capable of capturing 4K UHD video.

Today, China operates at least three LEO constellations comprising at least 300 satellites dedicated to espionage or dual-use purposes.

From the images constantly released about American bases, it is clear that the Chinese are building a true encyclopedia on U.S. naval and air doctrines.

Every ship positioning, fiend tactics, refueling time, ammunition resupply, everything is being monitored by Chinese satellites. This includes the exact location and behavior of air defenses, their mapped reaction times, missile trajectories, and reprogramming durations.

Nothing escapes the Chinese gaze. In this conflict, they have already mapped and publicly released data on multiple American bases in the region, even identifying the exact number and models of aircraft on the ground.

The war against Iran is giving the Chinese something they never had in the Ukrainian theater: the opportunity to study and document American forces in detail.

To give you an idea, in 2025 the Chinese recorded a video of Atlanta’s airport purely to demonstrate their capability.

I believe the same kind of videos are being produced daily on the American front against Iran.

Never in history has a U.S conflict been observed from the skies at this level, both tactically and strategically.

The price of the Iran war is high in many ways, as I have always said. 

And this single episode is giving the Chinese decades of planning and improvement in one go.