Morda se tega danes še ne zavedamo, toda v zgodovinskih učbenikih bo ta zgodovinski poraz ZDA proti Iranu označen kot zgodovinski mejnik glede vpliva ZDA na Bližnjem vzhodu in zahodni Aziji. Ta vojna, sprožena ioz objestnosti, bo pospešila konec ameriške globalne hegemonije.

We are witnessing history. Iran, to everyone’s surprise, is destroying American bases so thoroughly, on such a large scale, and so decisively that the world is not ready for this.

In 4 days, Iran has managed to expand its sphere of military dominance in the region. Iran has destroyed the most valuable and expensive military bases, property, and equipment in the entire world.

The American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are among the largest military facilities in the entire world. These facilities have cost trillions of dollars over several decades to build. We are talking about the fact that the bulk of the military spending that has been made over more than 30 years has gone up in smoke.

We see radars costing hundreds of millions of dollars each being destroyed in an instant. We see entire military bases being abandoned and burned, looted, and destroyed. And I’m telling you, as far as I know, the U.S. has never suffered such destruction in its entire history, except perhaps for Pearl Harbor, but that was just one attack.

No enemy in a conventional war has ever done this to American military forces as Iran is doing right now. It’s hard to believe. The military situation is so serious that censorship is blocking almost all new information about this war. If you’ve noticed, we’re getting less and less information every day.

Thirty-five years ago, during the first Iraqi war, we were shown endless footage from Iraq. Back then, smart bombs and cameras were a novelty, but every night we were shown night-time footage. Now we hardly see any videos at all.

Understand this! Supposedly, this is the world’s largest military power, with the world’s largest air capabilities, and on the fourth day of the U.S. offensive, supposedly and supposedly breaking through Iranian defenses, we don’t see any signs of American dominance in the Iranian sky. Where are all the video recordings of our planes flying over Tehran or any other part of Iran, for that matter?

American soldiers can’t even dream of setting foot on Iranian soil. And to understand how desperate this war is, on the fourth day you’re already hearing the most insane proposals and ideas from the Trump administration. They’re proposing sending military escorts for oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf. What are you even talking about! You want to send American ships into the zone of destruction of thousands of Iranian missiles? NOW no one can get through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranians have been preparing for this for decades. They’re flaunting the idea of arming Kurdish militias to invade Iran. What the hell are you talking about? Have you seen a map of Iran!? It seems the Trump administration has never seen a map of Iran! Do you know how vast it is? What does it mean to invade Iran!? Do you think a militia of 10,000 people could invade Iran!? Or even 50,000? Or 100,000? Iran will swallow them up.

The U.S. and Israel have already lost this war. The U.S. and Israel can kill millions of civilians in their homes. They have powerful bombs and can blow up buildings, but they won’t win this war. Iran’s military infrastructure and weaponry is deep underground all over IRAN. Neither the Americans nor, especially, the Israelis have any chance of reaching any of it. They’re in deep shit.

They started something they have no chance of finishing. When this all ends, the U.S. will never return to West Asia. There will be no American presence in the Middle East. I’m telling you this now with certainty.

Vir: Alon Mizrah

After evacuating bases and hiding military personnel in hotels, which were subsequently bombed, the United States has closed its embassies in Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon, Jordan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

The lack of planning and growing desperation are becoming increasingly evident, with rising oil and gas prices and the collapse of Asian markets.

The solution they’ve found? Escalate the bombings and drag more countries into the conflict, a measure that has so far failed to produce any success.

Increasing the bombings will not bring any victory.

The Soviets dropped more than 2 million bombs on Afghanistan and still lost the war.

The United States dropped over 7.5 million bombs on Vietnam and lost the war.

The U.S. dropped more than 200,000 tons of bombs on Afghanistan, yet the Taliban never won a single major battle, nevertheless, they advanced steadily, forcing the Americans into a desperate withdrawal. The Taliban remains in power to this day.

Studying asymmetric warfare should have been the first lesson before launching this invasion, which was so disastrously mismanaged that it didn’t even anticipate drone interceptors.

Zelo dobra zgodovinsko-biblična lekcija in razlaga za vsakogar, zakaj  gre tukaj za versko vojno cionistov proti vsem ostalim, za kaj se cionisti (Izraelci) v resnici borijo in zakaj jim kristjani pri tem tako goreče pomagajo. 

QatarEnergy je razglasil “višjo silo”, torej da začasno ne more izpolnjevati pogodbenih obveznosti zaradi izrednih okoliščin, ki jih ne more nadzorovati. To je pravni institut, ki omogoča podjetju, da začasno prekine dobavo ali izpolnjevanje pogodbe in da ne nosi pogodbenih kazni, dokler trajajo nepredvidljive okoliščine. To v praksi pomeni, da dokler traja vojna v regiji in zaprtje Hormuške ožine, katarska družba ne more začeti z utekočinjanjem plina in nato še 4 tedne, preden lahko začne dobavljati plin na svojem terminalu. Glede nato, da je QatarEnergy največji dobavitelj plina v Aziji, to pomeni energetsko krizo za večino Azije. No, za Rusijo oziroma za ruski utekočinjeni plin je to seveda odlična novica.

QatarEnergy just declared Force Majeure.

Three words that mean: we cannot deliver, and legally, we do not have to.

This is no longer a supply disruption. This is a contract collapse.

Force Majeure is not a precaution. It is a formal legal declaration that an unforeseeable event beyond QatarEnergy’s control has made fulfillment impossible. Every affected buyer just had their contract voided. The gas they were counting on is gone, and they have no legal recourse to get it back.

82% of Qatar’s LNG goes to Asia.

China relies on Qatar for 30% of its LNG imports. India 42 to 52%. South Korea 14 to 19%. Taiwan 25%. Japan is already rationing to spot markets.

Asian benchmark prices jumped 39% the day production stopped.

Force Majeure just made that permanent until further notice.

Indian companies have already cut gas supplies to industry by 10 to 30%. That is not a market adjustment. That is factories running at reduced capacity today, across the world’s most populous continent, because Iran sent drones into Ras Laffan.

Here is the number the market still has not fully absorbed.

Two weeks to restart a liquefaction train after a full cold shutdown. Then two more weeks to reach full capacity. That is a minimum of four weeks at zero, assuming no further strikes, no security complications, no inspection delays.

The war is still running.

There is no security guarantee. There is no restart timeline. There is no floor.

Every LNG contract in Asia just became a spot market problem. Every spot market problem just became an inflation problem. Every inflation problem just became a central bank problem.

This started as a war in the Middle East.

It is now inside every factory, every power plant, and every gas bill across Asia.

Samo nekaj fragmentov:

In the first Iraq War in 1990, the US had 1900+ aircrafts, 6 aircraft carriers, and 38 allies;

In the Second Iraq War in 2003, the US had 863 aircrafts, 5 aircraft carriers, and 16 allies;

In the 2026 Iran War, the US had 300+ aircrafts, 2 aircraft carriers, and only 1 ally.

Retired Turkish Admiral Cem Gurdeniz:

American ships cannot go to Bahrain to resupply ammunition. There isn’t a single US warship in the Gulf right now.

Where will they go to load missiles? To Diego Garcia. How much does it take to go there and back from the Arabian Sea? 7 days…

The US has the capacity to produce serious, expensive missiles between 800 and 1000 per year.

The other side (Iran) has 40,000 missiles and says, “We will not negotiate with the Americans.”

Zanimiva razlaga s pomočjo (ekonomske) logike teorije iger, ki upošteva dejavnike, o katerih večina ne razmišlja, ko razmišlja o tej vojni. Če je Hormuška ožina zaprta: kaj bo preostali svet brez 20 % ponudbe nafte in plina in kaj bodo zalivske države brez dostopa do hrane in vode? In do problema geografske trdnjave Irana in njegovih zalog raket in dronov ter mozaične decentralizirane geografske strukture iranske obrambe še prišli nismo.

Večina aktualnih zemljevidov kaže lokacije zračnih udarov po Iranu (vključno s Teheranom), ne pa kopenskih poti. Klasičen kopenski napad na Teheran je vojaško izjemno težaven scenarij zaradi:

• goratega reliefa kot naravne bariere (Elburz na severu, gore Zagros na zahodu/jugu)
• oddaljenosti od morebitnih izhodišč (Irak 500–700 km, Perzijski zaliv 1000+ km, Turčija/Azerbajdžan še dlje)
• iranskih obrambnih linij, minskih polj, IRGC enot in urbane obrambe v samem Teheranu (prebivalstvo 9+ milijonov)

Najverjetnejše hipotetične smeri (če bi prišlo do kopenske operacije).

Na podlagi geografske lege in starejših vojaških analiz bi bile možne glavne osi približevanja:

1. Iz smeri Iraka (zahod/jugozahod)
   • Najkrajša in najpogosteje omenjana v starih scenarijih (npr. preko Kermanshaha – Hamadana – Qoma proti Teheranu)
   • Avtocesta 48 / cesta 5 proti vzhodu. To je edina realistična ravninska pot od zahoda, a zelo dolga in izpostavljena.
2. Iz smeri Perzijskega zaliva (jug)
   • Izstop iz območja Bandar Abbasa / Bushehra → proti Shirazu → Isfahanu → Qomu → Teheranu
   • Glavna avtocesta 7: Zelo dolga (1000 km), puščavsko-gorsko območje, logistično nočna mora.
3. Iz smeri severa (Azerbajdžan ali Kaspijsko jezero)
   • Preko Tabriza / Ardabila proti Teheranu: Močno gorsko, ozek koridor, logistično težko in politično problematično.
4. Iz smeri vzhoda (Afganistan/Turkmenistan): Skoraj nerealen scenarij zaradi razdalje in logističnih težav.

Viri iz zadnjih dni kažejo, da se Trumpova administracija sicer ni izključila možnosti kopenskih enot, a trenutno ni nobenih znakov dejanske kopenske ofenzive – vse ostaja pri zračnih udarih.

Trenutno pa vojaški analitiki ocenjujejo, da polna kopenska invazija na Teheran ni realistična brez desetletja priprav in več sto tisoč vojakov – kar v 2026 ni na obzorju.

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* Slika in komentar ustvarjena s pomočjo UI

John Mearsheimer:

Iranu ni treba zmagati, mora samo zdržati in se ne pustiti pokoriti Izraelu in ZDA.

On 3 March 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking about the Iran war. I told the Judge that the Trump administration was dragged into this war by Israel and its enormously powerful lobby in the US. Both Secretary of State Marco Rubio and House Speaker Mike Johnson have admitted as much and it is clear from listening to and reading the discourse on the internet that many Americans understand that this is another war for Israel. Iran was no threat to the US and there was no reason for Trump to attack it.

I also emphasized that it is almost impossible for me to see how Israel and the US win this war. It seems that victory for this aggressive tag team requires not only regime change in Iran, but replacing the regime with new leaders who are subservient to Israeli and American wishes. If those two things do not happen, Iran will surely keep its nuclear enrichment capability; keep building ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, & long-range drones; and keep supporting Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah. The likelihood of this war producing an Iranian regime that is subservient to Israel and the US is close to zero in my estimation.

For Iran to win, all it has to do is survive and not end up as a pawn of Israel and the US. Even if its missile inventory is greatly diminished, its nuclear enrichment capability is crippled, and its infrastructure is badly damaged, it matters little if the regime survives or is replaced by a regime that refuses to kowtow to the tag team. Remember that in the Vietnam War, the US won virtually every battle and lost the war.