Še ena raziskava, ki dokazuje, da je ključni vzrok za to, da je po letu 1990 izginila tretjina ameriških delovnih mest v industriji, v povečanih investicijah njihovih multinacionalk v tujino in prenosu proizvodnje v tujino. Boehm, Flaaen & Pandalai-Nayar (2019) v najnovejši raziskavi, ki temelji na populaciji vseh ameriških multinacionalk, dokončno potrjujejo, kar smo že vedeli.
No, in v tem dejstvu, da ameriške multinacionalke prenašajo delovna mesta na Kitajsko, Mehiko itd. in uničujejo domačo industrijo, je treba iskati razlage za Trumpov notorični populizem s trgovinsko vojno s Kitajsko, nov trgovinski sporazum z Mehiko ter odpoved TTIP sporazuma. Kot sem že včeraj zapisal, s trgovinsko vojno (z uvedbo visokih carin, ki bodo podražile uvoz (tudi “ameriških”) izdelkov iz Kitajske) želi Trump po “metodi nežnega prepričevanja bratov Dalton” prepričati ameriške korporacije, da pripeljejo proizvodnjo nazaj v Ameriko. In s tem delovna mesta v “rust belt” in centralni del ZDA, tradicionalno belo delavsko volilno bazo Trumpa.
Ta populizem je nevaren, vendar mu ekonomsko utemeljene logike ne moremo odreči.
What has caused the rapid decline in US manufacturing employment in recent decades? This column uses novel data to investigate the role of US multinationals and finds that they were a key driver behind the job losses. Insights from a theoretical framework imply that a reduction in the costs of foreign sourcing led firms to increase offshoring, and to shed labour.
One of the most contentious aspects of globalisation is its impact on national labour markets. This is particularly true for advanced economies facing the emergence and integration of large, low-wage, and export-driven countries into the global trading system. Contributing to this controversy, between 1990 and 2011 the US manufacturing sector lost one out of every three jobs. A body of research, including recent work by Bloom et al. (2019), Fort et al. (2018) and Autor et al. (2013), has attempted to understand this decline in manufacturing employment. The focus of this research has been on two broad explanations. First, this period could have coincided with intensive investments in labour-saving technology by US firms, thereby resulting in reduced demand for domestic manufacturing labour. Second, the production of manufacturing goods may have increasingly occurred abroad, also leading to less demand for domestic labour.
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