Spodnji zapis Blancharda in Summersa ter knjiga, ki jo napoveduje, je najbrž eden najbolj definitivnih momentov sedanjega časa glede sklopa optimalnih makroekonomskih politik v času drsenja v sekularno stagnacijo. Kot napovedujeta, se danes na intelektualni ravni kuha podobna revolucija v makroekonomiji, kot se je v 1970. letih. Takrat v času visoke inflacije in stagflacije, je prišlo do intelektualnega zasuka od fiskalne k monetarni politiki kot rešiteljice za visoko inflacijo. Danes je zasuk nasproten, proč of monetarne politike, ki se je izkazala za impotentno v času nizke inflacije in rasti, k fiskalni politiki kot rešiteljici za spodbuditev rasti in inflacije. Pričakujte revolucionarno spremembo makroekonomskih učbenikov.
MIT Press has released Evolution or Revolution? Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy after the Great Recession, a volume containing the papers and discussions we organized at a Peterson Institute conference held 18 months ago. While matters are still far from clear, the events since then lead us to regard secular stagnation as a significant threat to advanced countries. From somewhat different perspectives (Blanchard 2019, and Rachel and Summers 2019), we have increasingly come to believe that a major rethinking of macroeconomic policy, and in particular of fiscal policy, is in order.
We had written in our overview paper that:
“At a minimum, monetary policy must reestablish its margin of maneuver. Fiscal policy must be reintroduced as a major stabilization tool. And financial policies must continue to be adjusted and reinforced. We can call this evolution. If, however, neutral rates remain extremely low, perhaps even negative, or if financial regulation falls short, more dramatic changes may be needed, from reliance on fiscal deficits, to active policy efforts to promote private spending, to higher inflation to achieve lower real rates, to much tighter constraints on the financial sector. We can call this revolution. Time will tell.”
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