Povzetek evropske vakcinacijske blamaže (slabo izpogajane pogodbe o dobavah cepiva zaradi fokusa na najnižjih cenah) bi lahko bil naslednji: res je, da je z dobrimi nameni tlakovana pot v pekel, vendar je tudi to pot v pekel mogoče narediti peklensko, kadar ingerenco nad izpolnjevanjem dobrih namenov prevzamejo posla nevešči birokrati. Vendar pa, če smo se že znašli v tej godlji, potem vsaj dajmo znotraj nje najti najmanj slabo varianto (torej optimalno varianto glede na nove okoliščine). To pa pomeni, da če že imamo manj cepiva, dajmo vsaj cepiti čim več ljudi z vsaj eno dozo (in iz vsake viale potegniti maksimum doz), da bomo tako lahko čimprej odprli javno življenje in gospodarstvo in tako zmanjšali ekonomsko in splošno družbeno škodo zaradi dolgega lockdowna. To je poanta spodnjega članka.

Early in the pandemic, the commission was tasked with procuring COVID-19 vaccines for the entire EU. This was the most sensible political path, since the alternative would likely have been an increasingly frenzied bidding war among member states of the sort that led to national personal protective equipment export controls earlier in the pandemic. But the commission had no experience in negotiating large-scale pharmaceutical purchases—and, it turns out, learning on the job in the middle of the worst European health crisis in 100 years may not have been a good idea.

The EU seems to have approached the common bulk vaccine purchases with economies of scale foremost in mind—that is, using the continent’s market power to negotiate advantages on price. From a human and macroeconomic perspective, this made little sense, however: The overwhelming priority should have been priority and speed of delivery, since the potential infections avoided and economic savings from an earlier reopening of EU economies would have dwarfed any cost savings from cheaper vaccines. Non-EU governments, such as Israel and the U.K., that made quicker and less price-conscious purchase decisions have been more successful at acquiring early supplies.

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Jasmina Držanič

Redki še živeči preživeli taboriščniki druge svetovne vojne so, ko so pripovedovali o tem času, naleteli na naslednje vprašanje: Kaj ste pa naredili narobe, da so vas zaprli? Taka vprašanja so postavljali najstniki in ko so jim poskušali razložiti, da ni treba nič narediti narobe, da je zadoščal že razlog, da so živeli, so bili najstniki šokirani in objokani. Mislim, da bi si morali vsi večkrat inducirati podoben občutek, kot ga doživijo najstniki, ko se jih pripoveduje o holokavstu. Tule razlagam zakaj.

V romanu Karavane Jamesa A. Michenerja poglavje, v katerem v Afganistan pobegli nacistični vojak v petdesetih letih prejšnjega stoletja razlaga ameriškemu diplomatu, kako se v človeku razvije pošastnost. Karavana, v kateri se oba lika znajdeta, se prebija čez afganistansko gorovje in na eni od točk, kjer prenočujejo, so ostanki palače Džingis kana. Tam so ogromni apneni stebri in ex-naci razloži Američanu, da so ti stebri narejeni tako, da so z apnom in peskom polivali trupla. Ex-naci potem meri širino stebrov in računa, koliko trupel je v stebru in vedno bolj šokiranemu Američanu razlaga, da taka pošastnost ne nastane od včeraj na danes, da je zelo težko ubiti prvega človeka, potem gre pa postopoma lažje in razlaga, kako se je sam pridružil nacistom in kaj so počeli in kako se mu je najprej obračal želodec, potem pa vedno manj in kako je med vojno pravi čas pobegnil, ker drugače bi končal v Nǜrenbergu….

Izvrsten roman, priporočam v branje. Za razumevanje tega teksta pa ostanimo pri sporočilu, da pošastnost ne nastane v enem dnevu. In lekcija, da je potrebno prepoznati pošastnost v nastajanju.

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Stanko Štrajn

Moje pismo, objavljeno na tem blogu in v Spletni Mladini 23. 1. 2021 je na spletu vzbudilo množico odobravanja, na drugi strani pa tudi zelo primitivno razpravljanje o vprašanju, ali je prav, da je MOL kot lastnik prevzel svojo posest. Očitno je potrebno, da bralcem dodatno pojasnim smisel mojega pisanja, ker bo le tako možno doseči, da bodo bralci usmerili svojo pozornost na ključna vprašanja družbenega dogajanja v Sloveniji, ne da bi se pri tem obremenjevali z ideološkimi prepiri.

Množični komentarji so spregledali, da je že sodišče pravnomočno priznalo MOL-u lastninsko upravičenje nad Rogom in da je povsem brezpredmetno razpravljati, ali ima MOL kot lastnik pravico imeti Rog v posesti. Medijske obravnave dokazujejo, da v javnih odzivih večina razpravljalcev ne opazi, da si je MOL samovoljno s pomočjo policije sam na nasilen način vzel svojo pravico. K demokraciji zaprisežena intelektualna elita novinarjev in kolumnistev ni opazila, da je samovolja in ignoriranje pristojnosti v delitvi oblasti pričetek razgradnje pravne države.

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This Manichean fixity explains the overwhelming support of white evangelicals for Trump—and their visceral abhorrence of secular society. As Stewart observes: “Even a corrupt sociopath was better, in their eyes, than the horrifying freedom that religious moderates and liberals . . . offer the world. That this neo-medieval vision is incompatible with constitutional democracy is clear.”

Nor is reasserting racial and cultural supremacy consonant with free elections among a diverse citizenry. When the stakes are apocalyptic and the chosen outnumbered, democracy must yield to the party of redemption—and the cynical self-interest of its leaders. Hence the GOP’s pervasive efforts to enshrine minority rule through gerrymandering and voter suppression. Their principal means are fictitious claims of voter fraud designed to disenfranchise minorities while undermining faith in our elections. Now we’ve witnessed the apotheosis—a concerted effort to delegitimize the indubitable results of a presidential election to perpetuate the party of white identity in power. The GOP’s true objection was to democracy itself: That Trump lost was, taken alone, sufficient evidence of corruption.

This should not surprise: Social science suggests that a majority of Trump voters are instinctive authoritarians. But one cannot separate Trumpism from the inherent character of the party which spawned him.

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Obvezno branje! In preden kdorkoli začne govoriti o širjenju teorij zarote, naj si prebere analize in dejstva, ki so polinkana v tekstu ter si nato ustvari mnenje.

1. Lethality: According to the latest immunological studies, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) of covid-19 in the general population is about 0.1% to 0.5% in most countries, which is comparable to the medium influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968.
2. Treatment: For people at high risk or high exposure, early or prophylactic treatment is essential to prevent progression of the disease. According to numerous international studies, early outpatient treatment of covid may reduce hospitalizations and deaths by about 80%.
3. Age profile: The median age of covid deaths is over 80 years in most Western countries (but 78 in the US) and only about 5% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of covid mortality is therefore comparable to normal mortality, but increases it proportionally.
4. Nursing homes: In many Western countries, up to two thirds of all covid deaths have occurred in nursing homes, which require targeted and humane protection. In some cases it is not clear whether the residents really died of covid or of weeks of stress and isolation.
5. Excess mortality: Up to 30% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by covid, but by the effects of lockdowns, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 40% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.
6. Antibodies: By summer 2020, global hotspots such as New York City and Bergamo had reached antibody seroprevalence levels of approximately 25%. Capital cities such as Madrid, London and Stockholm were around 15%. Large parts of Europe and the US, however, were still below 5%. Above about 30%, a significant slowdown of the infection process has been observed.
7. Symptoms: Up to 40% of all infected persons show no symptoms, about 80% show at most mild symptoms, and about 95% show at most moderate symptoms and do not require hospitalization. Mild cases may be due to protective T-cells from earlier common cold coronavirus infections.
8. Long covid: About 10% of symptomatic people report post-acute or long covid, i.e. symptoms that last for several weeks or months. This also affects younger and previously healthy people with a strong immune response. The post-viral syndrome is known from severe influenza, too.
9. Transmission: According to current knowledge, the main routes of transmission of the virus are indoor aerosols and droplets produced when speaking or coughing, while outdoor aerosols as well as most object surfaces appear to play a minor role.
10. Masks: There is still little to no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of cloth face masks in the general population, and the introduction of mandatory masks couldn’t contain or slow the epidemic in most countries. If used improperly, masks may increase the risk of infection.
11. Children and schools: In contrast to influenza, the risk of disease and transmission in children is very low in the case of covid. There was and is therefore no medical reason for the closure of elementary schools or other measures specifically aimed at children.
12. Contact tracing: A WHO study of 2019 on measures against influenza pandemics concluded that from a medical perspective, contact tracing is “not recommended in any circumstances”. Contact tracing apps on cell phones have also failed in most countries.
13. PCR tests: The virus test kits used internationally may in some cases produce false positive and false negative results or react to non-infectious virus fragments from a previous infection. In this regard, the so-called cycle threshold or ct value is an important parameter.
14. Medical mismanagement: In the US and some other countries, fatal medical mismanagement of some covid patients occurred due to questionable financial incentives and inappropriate protocols. In most countries, covid in-hospital mortality has since decreased significantly.
15. Lockdowns: In contrast to early border controls, lockdowns have had no significant effect on the pandemic. Rather, the WHO warned that lockdowns have caused a “terrible global catastrophe” and according to the UN, lockdowns may put the livelihood of 1.6 billion people at acute risk and may push an additional 150 million children into poverty.
16. Sweden: In Sweden, covid mortality without a lockdown is comparable to a strong influenza season and close to the EU average. About 70% of Swedish deaths occurred in nursing facilities and the median age of Swedish covid deaths is about 84 years.
17. Media: The reporting of many media has been unprofessional, has maximized fear and panic in the population and has led to a massive overestimation of the lethality and mortality of covid. Some media even used manipulative pictures and videos to dramatize the situation.
18. Vaccines: Due to their rapid development, little is yet known about the long-term effectiveness and safety of the covid vaccines. Following several deaths, Norway advises against RNA vaccination in frail persons over 80 years of age. Some other groups of people are also advised against RNA vaccination because of possible complications.
19. Virus origin: The origin of the new corona virus remains unclear, but the best evidence currently points to a covid-like pneumonia incident in a Chinese mine in 2012, whose virus samples were collected, stored and researched by the Virology Institute in Wuhan (WIV).
20. Surveillance: NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the covid pandemic may be used to expand global surveillance. In several parts of the world, the population is being monitored by drones and facing serious police overreach during lockdowns.

Glejte tudi:

1. On the treatment of Covid-19
2. Studies on Covid-19 lethality
3. The evidence on face masks
4. On post-acute (“long”) Covid
5. On the origin of SARS-CoV-2

Vir: Swiss Policy Research

Se spomnite začetka epidemije virusa Covid-19, ko so ob rasti okužb v razvitih državah številne mednarodne organizacije izražale bojazen, kako hude učinke bo ta okužba imela šele v državah razvoju, kjer so zdravstveni sistemi podhranjeni (svarilo OZN, strahovi IMF in Svetovne banke itd.). V resnici pa do napovedane katastrofe ni prišlo. Do resnejšega izbruha virusa je prišlo sredi (našega) poletja v Braziliji in Južni Afriki, vendar s številkami med 150 in 200 primerov na milijon prebivalcev, v Argentini pa med avgustom in koncem oktobra (vendar največ do 350 primerov na milijon prebivalcev). To so številke, ki so bistveno nižje od evropskih (med 600 in 1,200 primerov / milijon preb.).

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Tole potrjuje mojo včerajšnjo tezo, da je za počasno cepljenje v EU državah in za zaostajanje za V. Britanijo kriva predvsem pozna odobritev cepiva s strani EMA (2 tedna za Britanijo). Seveda pa tudi omejene tedenske dobave cepiva, na katere je pristala Evropska komisija, ne omogočajo, da bi EU države lahko morda kasneje dohitele Britanijo glede stopnje precepljenosti.

Ni kaj, v tem segmentu je britanska vlada izkoristila svojo novo suverenost in prehitela EU. Ta dva tedna zamika v odobritvi cepiva in počasnejši roll-out cepljenja v EU lahko pomenita (po nepotrebnem) nekaj deset tisoč več mrtvih v EU, hkrati pa tudi počasnejšo dinamiko odpiranja in večji upad gospodarske aktivnosti v prvi polovicci 2021.

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Nobelovec Angus Deaton v novi študiji na glavo obrne popularno prepričanje, da se je globalna neenakost zaradi Covid-19 povečala, ker naj bi se dohodki držav razvoju bolj zmanjšali. Velja obratno, razvite države so bile kljub boljšemu zdravstvenemu sistemu bolj prizadete s korono – relativno več mertvih in večji padec BDP. Tehtana globalna neenakost (z velikostjo držav) se je sicer res povečala, vendar zato, ker se je Kitajska odlepila od ostalih manj razvitih držav.

Ta korona kriza bo, v povezavi s protekcionizmom, ki so ga zagnale razvite državev obupu pred zaščito svojega tehnološkega zaostajanja, močno spremenila svet. Vendar se s krajšanjem oskrbovalnih verig in z vračanjem proizvodnje nazaj bližje domu zahodnim državam odpirajo možnosti industrijske renesanse. Če bo to povezano z višjimi plačami, bo to za seboj potegnilo tudi večje povpraševanje srednjega sloja, s tem pa višjo rast. Nadaljujte z branjem→

…na odprtje šol, dejavnosti, trgovin, …, predvsem pa glav vladajočih.

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Švedska agencija za javno zdravje je naredila primerjalno študijo, ali je ohranitev odprtih šol v prvem valu epidemije na Švedskem imelo posledice na močnejšo širitev epidemije kot na Finskem, ki je šole zaprla sredi marca. Študija ugotavlja, da zaradi odprtih šol na Švedskem ni prišlo do značilno večjega porasta okužb med mladimi kot na Finskem in ugotavlja, da je negativne družbene učinke zaprtja šol treba pretehtati v luči morebitnih pozitivnih učinkov, ki bi jih zapertje lahko prineslo. Glavni sklepi študije:

• Zapiranje šol ni imelo merljivega učinka na število primerov covid-19 med otroki.
• Otroci niso glavna rizična skupina za bolezen covid-19 in se zdi, da imajo z vidika prenosa manj pomembno vlogo, čeprav so bolj potrebni bolj aktiven nadzor in posebne študije, kot so študije prenosa bolezni v šoli in gospodinjstvu.
• Negativne učinke zaprtja šol je treba pretehtati glede na morebitne pozitivne posredne učinke, ki bi jih lahko imelo na ublažitev pandemije covid-19.

Zapiranje šol se torej zdi nesmiselna strategija, sploh dolgotrajnejše zapiranje, če so mladi manj podvrženi okužbi in če niso pomemben dejavnik v širjenju okužbe. Negativni dolgoročni učinki zaprtja šol na znanje (in možnosti v življenju) in na psihofizično zdravje otrok so namreč lahko neprimerljivo višji od morebitnih učinkov zaviranja širitve okužbe prek šol. Drugače rečeno, morebitni “zdravilni učinek” zapiranja je šol lahko povzroči neprimerljivo višjo družbeno škodo.