Covid-19 je zmanjšal globalno neenakost, ker so bile razvite države bolj prizadete

Nobelovec Angus Deaton v novi študiji na glavo obrne popularno prepričanje, da se je globalna neenakost zaradi Covid-19 povečala, ker naj bi se dohodki držav razvoju bolj zmanjšali. Velja obratno, razvite države so bile kljub boljšemu zdravstvenemu sistemu bolj prizadete s korono – relativno več mertvih in večji padec BDP. Tehtana globalna neenakost (z velikostjo držav) se je sicer res povečala, vendar zato, ker se je Kitajska odlepila od ostalih manj razvitih držav.

Ta korona kriza bo, v povezavi s protekcionizmom, ki so ga zagnale razvite državev obupu pred zaščito svojega tehnološkega zaostajanja, močno spremenila svet. Vendar se s krajšanjem oskrbovalnih verig in z vračanjem proizvodnje nazaj bližje domu zahodnim državam odpirajo možnosti industrijske renesanse. Če bo to povezano z višjimi plačami, bo to za seboj potegnilo tudi večje povpraševanje srednjega sloja, s tem pa višjo rast.

There is a widespread belief that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased global income inequality, reducing per capita incomes by more in poor countries than in rich. This supposition is reasonable but false. Rich countries have experienced more deaths per head than have poor countries; their better health systems, higher incomes, more capable governments and better preparedness notwithstanding. The US did worse than some rich countries, but better than several others. Countries with more deaths saw larger declines in income. There was thus not only no trade-off between lives and income; fewer deaths meant more income. As a result, per capita incomes fell by more in higher-income countries.

Deaton-Covid and growth

Country by country, international income inequality decreased. When countries are weighted by population, international income inequality increased, not because the poorest countries diverged from the richest countries, but because China—no longer a poor country—had few deaths and positive economic growth, pulling it away from poor countries. That these findings are a result of the pandemic is supported by comparing global inequality using IMF forecasts in October 2019 and October 2020.

Vir: Angus Deaton, NBER

One response

  1. Grobe ocene ekonomistov, ki grobo gledajo na stvar… Več smrti, ker je tudi povprečna življenjska doba v razvitih državah veliko višja, to bi bil npr. lahko zelo pomemben faktor. Gibanje BDP in mednarodne razlike v BDP tudi ne pomenijo veliko brez konteksta, bolj pomembno vprašanje je, kaj se je v tretjem svetu zgodilo z distribucijo tega BDP v populacije ter z revščino in absolutnim pomanjkanjem. Seveda so to samo zelo instantni pomisleki z moje strani, vendar pa je pomembno, da se stvari malo bolj resno raziščejo. Predvsem glede na to, ker imajo take trditve tudi nekakšne implicitne vrednostne in politične implikacije.

    T. Gonza

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