Yesterday CNN published another Russiagate like nonsense story:

Newly declassified US intel claims Russia is laundering propaganda through unwitting Westerners

Russian intelligence is operating a systematic program to launder pro-Kremlin propaganda through private relationships between Russian operatives and unwitting US and western targets, according to newly declassified US intelligence.

Caitlin Johnstone takes it apart:

Another Day, Another CIA Press Release Disguised As News

She concludes:

One of the craziest things happening in our world today is how westerners are being trained to overlook the massive amounts of western propaganda they’re inundated with day in and day out and focus instead on “Russian propaganda”, which has no meaningful existence in the west. In 2017 before RT was shut down in the UK, it accounted for 0.04 percent of the UK’s total TV audience. A New York University study published earlier this year found that the supposed Russian Twitter influence campaign ahead of the 2016 election which dominated headlines for years had had “no measurable impact in changing minds or influencing voter behavior”. An earlier study found that suspected Russian accounts showing up in Facebook’s news feed during that time amounted to “approximately 1 out of 23,000 pieces of content.” A study by Adelaide University found that despite headline after headline warning us about a massive wave of Russian bots manipulating online discourse after the invasion of Ukraine began last year, the overwhelming majority of fake accounts they examined (more than 90 percent) were pro-Ukraine accounts.

Contrast this microscopic smattering of influence with the fact that westerners are continually getting their news reporting from western propaganda outlets which openly publish CIA press releases disguised as news on a regular basis. These people are absolutely telling us the truth when they say we’re under constant bombardment by propaganda and influence operations — they’re just lying about who’s really doing it to us.

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Večina ljudi se ne zaveda, da staranje prebivalstva – kot posledica nižje stopnje rodnosti od stopnje umrljivosti – vodi v upadanje stopnje gospodarske rasti (seveda pa tudi v pospešeno rast izdatkov, povezanih s staranjem – za pokojnine, zdravstvo in dolgotrajno oskrbo). Stopnja rasti BDP je namreč po definiciji enaka vsoti stopnje rasti prebivalstva in stopnje rasti produktivnosti (BDP per capita). Spodaj je nekaj odlomkov iz zadnje empirične analize (za 145 držav), za koliko bi negativna demografija lahko znižala stopnjo gospodarske rasti. Analiza kaže, da če bi povprečna stopnja rasti BDP v obdobju 2020-2050 brez učinkov staranja znašala 2.5% letno, bi staranje prebivalstva to stopnjo rasti BDP v povprečju znižalo za 0.8 odstotnih točk. Ta negativni učinek bi lahko bil nižji (“le” 0.4 odstotnih točk), če bi upoštevali učinke “funkcionalne kapacitete” starostne strukture. Po domače rečeno, če bi vzporedno s staranjem prebivalstva tudi podaljševali delovno dobo oziroma skrajševali upokojitveno obdobje, bi lahko nekoliko omilili negativni učinek staranja prebivalstva.

Naj povem še drugače, ker smo z rastjo razvitosti izgubili željo po razmnoževanju (in po vsaj enostavni reprodukciji prebivalstva, to je najmanj 2.1 otroka v povprečju na žensko), bomo to morali plačati z nižjo gospodarsko rastjo. To pa lahko nekoliko omilimo s tem, da delamo dlje. Iz tega sledi logično vprašanje za mlajše generacije v reproduktivni dobi:

vam je ljubše roditi več otrok ali delati bistveno dlje (in manj časa uživati pokojnino)?

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Spodaj je zelo dobro dokumentirana finančna analiza, ki kaže, da medijska kampanja o finančnem in gospodarskem zlomu Kitajske ne drži. In analiza tudi daje odgovor, zakaj zahodni mediji to kampanjo izvajajo prav zdaj, ko se v resnici sesuva ameriški obvezniški trg.

It is impossible to turn to a newspaper, financial television station or podcast today without getting told all about the unfolding implosion of the Chinese economy. Years of over-building, white elephants and unproductive infrastructure spending are finally coming home to roost. Large property conglomerates like Evergrande and Country Garden are going bust. And with them, so are hopes for any Chinese economic rebound. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is either too incompetent, too ideologically blinkered, or simply too communist to do anything about this developing disaster.

Interestingly, however, financial markets are not confirming the doom and gloom running rampant across the financial media. Consider the following points.

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Kot pravi Branko Milanović (v tekstu spodaj), so BRICS danes enako kot Neuvrščeni nekoč reakcija na globalizacijo Nata. Tako Neuvrščene nekoč kot BRICS danes ne družijo skupne vrednote ali ideologija, pač pa to, da ne želijo biti del drugega, ideološkega bloka.

Je pa res, in tukaj se razhajam z Milanovićem, da danes države BRICS (in pretendente za članstvo) druži bistveno več, kot je nekoč Neuvrščene. Prvič, imajo skupno agendo, to je razvoj, neodvisen od ameriško oktroiranih pravil. In drugič, imajo alternativo (in krmarja), ki je Neuvrščeni niso imeli. Kitajska kot najmočnejša gospodarska sila in najmočnejša trgovinska partnerica večine držav ter država, ki obeta, da bo tehnološko in trgovinsko dominirala v prihodnosti, s svojo trgovinsko integracijo in relativno velikostjo daje državam v razvoju potrebno zavetje in varnost. Kitajska je hkrati edina država, ki očitno ima globalni načrt, ki vključuje mrežo ekstenzivnega razvojnega sodelovanja večine držav v razvoju. Kitajska ima Belt and Road Initiative, v okviru katere gradi pomorsko in kopensko infrastrukturno mrežo, ki železniško in pomorsko integrira Evropo, Azijo in Afriko in jo s tem tudi  trgovinsko in gospodarsko integrira. Kdor tega ne razume, ne razume pomena železnice ali organiziranih pomorskih poti za razvoj. In Kitajska to dela na enak način kot Avstroogrska, ki je zgradila železniške povezave od Dunaja proti Trstu, proti Pragi in Egru ter od Budimpešte do Rijeke.

In paradoksalno, s tem, ko se BRICS krepi z novimi članicami in z daljšajočo se listo pretendentov za članstvo, BRICS+ dobiva tudi ideoološko podstat. Ne lastno, pač pa jo definira ideologija nasprotnega bloka. Ameriško dominirani NATO in G7 ter njena podrejena podružnica EU namreč na BRICS lepijo etiketo, da gre za združenje nedemokratičnih držav oziroma držav za avtoritarnimi režimi. Ergo, obeta se nam ne samo globalna gospodarska polarizacija na osi “Globalni Zahod” (OECD) proti “Globalni Jug” (BRICS+), pač pa tudi politična globalna polarizacija, ki jo bodo – stavim – zahodni mediji postavili na osi “demokratični svet” proti “nedemokratičnemu svetu”.

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Se zelo splača prebrati to kronologijo. Odgovor na naslovno vprašanje je:

“This is a war,” Price answered, “that is in many ways bigger than Russia, it’s bigger than Ukraine.” The U.S. rejected Ukraine negotiating an agreement with Russia that met Kiev’s goals in favor of pressuring Ukraine to continue fighting in pursuit of larger U.S. goals and “core principles.”

Rarely mentioned in current commentaries on the war in Ukraine, in the early weeks that followed the February 24, 2022, Russian invasion, Russia and Ukraine engaged in three separate and significant attempts to negotiate a peaceful settlement. Those negotiations had several important things in common. All three could have ended the war before the devastation of Ukraine’s infrastructure, the massive Ukrainian loss of lives, and the increased risk of unchecked escalation. All three featured an offer by Ukraine not to join NATO. And all three were stopped by the United States.

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Res, kaj je tako zelo narobe s kitajskim gospodarstvom, tudi če raste “samo” po 5% letno? V excelu si naredite 10-letno trajektorijo kitajskega BDP po 5% letno in britanskega po 1% letno: kitajski BDP bi kumulativno zrastel za 63%, britanski pa za 10.5%.

Torej kaj je tako zelo narobe s kitajsko rastjo “samo” po 5% letno? In kaj je tako zelo narobe s tem, da ima 90% Kitajcev v lasti svoje stanovanje (skoraj brez dolga), medtem ko ga večina Britancev najema (in je torej brez premoženja). Da o zastonj šolanju Kitajcev, odlični infrastrukturi, nizki upokojitveni starosti, dostopnosti zdravstva za vse itd. ne govorimo.

Komu je potrebna tako neumna propaganda? In to iz države, ki se dobesedno gospodarsko sesuva (junija 2023 je bil kumulativni indeks britanskega BDP le za 0.8% nad predpandemskim iz februarja 2020).

End of summer blues

Jasmina Držanič

Slabe tri tedne po katastrofalnih poplavah je čisto primeren trenutek, da se dobro premisli, kako srednjeročno in dolgoročno financirati obnovo države po veliki naravni nesreči. Kako velika bo, bomo sicer vedeli po kolikor toliko solidni oceni škode, ampak dejstvo, da so o škodi ob poplavah poročali iz več kot 2/3 občin, napotuje na hipotezo o nadpovprečno veliki naravni nesreči za državo, ki ima relativno majhno površino.

Poglejmo ugotovljeno direktno škodo, ki so je zgodila pri dveh velikih nesrečah v našem sosedstvu, in koliko evropske pomoči so dobile države. Italija je dobila največji znesek pomoči za eno nesrečo, Hrvaški pa sta se zgodila dva potresa, ki sta zaradi svoje velikosti in v primerjavi s hrvaškmi BDP nekaj, na kar EU v resnici ni pripravljena.

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The Shakespearean de-dollarization drama

Whatever the final concrete results of these potentially game-changing days in Johannesburg – I analyzed the key themes here  – the basic facts are immutable.

China and Russia, as the main drivers, are bent on expanding towards BRICS+ to resist imperial bullying, diplomatic and otherwise; build alternatives to SWIFT; promote economic self-reliance among members and autonomy from the sanctions dementia (which will only increase); and eventually forge an alliance against imperial military threats – with the possibility of BRICS+ merging in the future with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

The China factor is arguably the key vector in all these complex, intertwined processes. It’s no wonder that President Xi, in his only second state visit abroad in 2023 (after Russia), will convene a special meeting in Johannesburg with dozens of African heads of state.

Chinese public opinion is absolutely riveted by the BRICS summit, with “interest surpassing the G7”. There’s extensive debate on the whole Empire-defying agenda – from de-dollarization to heightened influence in the energy market – and on the China-India divide, with New Delhi often pointed out as a hostile agent inside BRICS.

Sherpas, off the record, as well as diplomats from the current BRICS five (soon to expand) have been extra-cautious to frame the whole debate not on de-dollarization – still a distant prospect – but on alternative trade/payment systems in local currencies.

Yet in his address by videoconference – saluted like a rock star – President Putin was adamant: the de-dollarization process inside BRICS is irreversible.

Yet it’s internal contradictions that stand out when it comes to BRICS+. New Delhi has been extremely cautious – even as sherpas let it be known that the main rules for admission have been agreed upon.

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