Drago Babič

Uvod

Evropa se je ponovno znašla v krizi v oskrbi z energijo. Pred štirimi leti zaradi vojne v Ukrajini in prekinitve dobav energentov iz Rusije, sedaj zaradi vojne Izraela in ZDA z Iranom. Ta vojna je zaprla Hormuško ožino in tako prekinila dobave petine svetovne porabe nafte in plina, kar je povzročilo podražitev svetovnih cen nafte in plina za polovico. Evropa dosedaj ni kupovala veliko energentov na Bližnjem vzhodu, okoli 10% vsega uvoza, vendar je pri nafti in plinu pretežno uvozno odvisna (94% odvisnost). Zato nas vsesplošno povečanje svetovnih cen energentov ekonomsko hudo prizadene.

Po besedah predsednice Evropske komisije Ursule Von der Leyen (VDL), od izbruha vojne na Bližnjem vzhodu evropski račun za uvoz fosilnih goriv povečal za približno 500 milijonov evrov na dan ob količinsko istih dobavah. Ob tem je poudarila, da bi bil povratek k ruskim fosilnim gorivom (od koder je pred vojno v Ukrajini prihajala večina fosilnih goriv), napaka, saj EU zdaj z novimi uredbami (REPowerEU) načrtuje popolno in trajno opustitev uvoza ruskega utekočinjenega zemeljskega plina (LNG) še v letu 2026. Njen edini praktični napotek je bil varčevanje z energijo v slogu izjave »najcenejša energija je tista, ki je ne porabimo«.

Da to ni bila le populistična floskula, pričajo dejanski podatki o porabi energije v Evropi, ki se od prejšnje krize pospešeno zmanjšuje. Po podatkih Eurostat se je v EU dobavljena (primarna) energija od leta 2021 do leta 2025 zmanjšala za 8 % na 1358 Mtoe (milijon ton naftnega ekvivalenta), uvoz energije pa za 13 % na 642 Mtoe. Za tak količinsko zmanjšani uvoz smo lani plačali 385 milijard evrov, to je 140 milijard oziroma 57 % več kot leta 2021. V kolikor bodo na Bližnjem vzhodu še trajale take razmere in z njimi visoke cene, lahko pričakujemo še višje stroške za letni uvoz energije, okoli 500 milijard evrov, oziroma 100 % več, kot pred prvo energetsko krizo leta 2021 in skoraj toliko, kot med prvo krizo, ki jo je povzročila vojna v Ukrajini, ko je bil letni strošek uvoza energentov 640 milijard evrov.

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Vsako leto, v takšni posebni konstelaciji, v nekem čarobnem zalivu, pride tak dan, tak trenutek

One day while you were asleep
Who knows in what dreams
I took a long and quiet look at your face
And said maybe it is a fairytale
Maybe it is the wave that hits the shore
Maybe the ship on that wave
Maybe the pigeon on that ship
Maybe the voice of that pigeon
Maybe the sun that is reborn with my song
Maybe even beyond the sun
Maybe it is a tiny sparkle, this life
Maybe that is sufficient for us

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of ​​Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

Vir: Bloomberg

Who are you with? With Harari or with Henrich?

Joseph Heath critiques in this article the account of human evolution presented by Yuval Noah Harari in “Sapiens” for being unscientific and outdated. He contrasts it with the much more solid and current theory, according to him, of Joseph Henrich (“The Secret of Our Success”), which completely reverses the explanatory order.

Heath identifies four unique capacities that differentiate humans:

• Superior intelligence (including abstract and mathematical reasoning).
• Complex and grammatical language.
• Ultrasocial cooperation (with non-kin).
• Cumulative culture (continuous transmission and improvement of knowledge and artifacts).

Any serious theory must explain how these traits evolved in a very short evolutionary time (Homo erectus appeared about 2 million years ago or so).

Harari’s sequence follows the classic order:

Intelligence → Language → Cooperation → Culture.

But Heath sees many problems with it:

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WHY did I win my wager against @ProfessorPape?

I have great respect for him and my respect for him has grown recently. But what did he get wrong?

He believed, correctly, that US security principals faced a strong incentive to do whatever it takes to prevail. He expected them to get sucked into higher and higher levels of escalation to get their way, in a process he calls The Escalation Trap.

I told you from the start that, while this was a good model of an important dynamic at play, it suffered from a grave problem: there was nothing is the model that could ever account for deescalation—it could only explain higher and higher commitments.

So his model was theoretically incomplete in a very important way, and it was not pretty to watch him impose his theoretical priors on a dynamic reality that refused to obey the model.

I tried to think harder about the incentive structures for the two sides. I did eventually formally model the interaction as a bargaining game under asymmetric information. But the underlying logic was already clear intuitively beforehand.

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Israel feels that in the last few days Trump has turned against it. They are worried the change is permanent. But Israeli sources are not claiming Trump is being unfair necessarily, they are describing a trap of Netanyahu’s own making:

1. Israelis read the rebuke as deliberate humiliation. A senior official close to Netanyahu told Channel 12 that Jerusalem was “stunned” by Trump’s criticism and called it “a resounding slap in the face.” The Times of Israel
2. Israelis accept they oversold the war and got caught. Former PM Ehud Barak, on Israel’s public broadcaster, said “Israel is paying the price of Netanyahu’s hubris and blindness, and the price of the manipulations that he tried to pull on Trump.”
3. Israelis believe Trump now sees Netanyahu as a possession. A critic quoted in Israeli media warned that Netanyahu “is turning us into a client state that takes orders about its national security.” Maariv columnist Ben Caspit put it more sharply: “Israeli policy is dictated by Trump’s social media posts.”
4. Israelis read the Netanyahu “won’t run again” remark as Trump reaching into their politics. After Trump floated that it was an open question whether the 76-year-old wants to continue his political career, Likud was forced to publicly confirm Netanyahu would run.
5. They see Lebanon signals as abandonment of a front they consider existential. Nadav Strauchler, a former Netanyahu adviser, conceded to the Times of Israel that the premier was counting on Trump’s support in the election, and how the war ends will affect the result more than anything. This lands hard given fourteen IDF soldiers killed by Hezbollah since the April ceasefire. The Times of IsraelThe Times of Israel
6. Israelis see Netanyahu boxed in with no answer. Yair Golan, the center-left party leader and former general, posted on X that Trump “signs an agreement that funnels billions to the Ayatollahs’ regime, leaves the nuclear infrastructure intact, preserves the ballistic threat as is, and throws a lifeline to the murderous regime in Tehran.”
7. Netanyahu’s camp is minimizing the rift, which is the tell. Strauchler argued the perception of a rift was overstated, yet a senior Israeli source briefed on the relationship conceded the leaked call was not helpful to Netanyahu ahead of an election he is polling to lose

Bottom line: the Israeli interpretation is not that Trump betrayed a loyal ally. It is that Israel overpromised a war, Trump caught on, and Netanyahu now has no leverage, no alternative patron, and no way to answer a public humiliation except to deny it is happening.

Trita Parsi has a rational, pro-American view of the Iran war, so naturally Bari Weiss tried to get him deported. Trita Parsi is an award-winning foreign policy expert and author specializing in U.S.–Iran relations and Middle East diplomacy. He is the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award and has written several acclaimed books, including Treacherous Alliance and Losing an Enemy, on U.S. foreign policy and Iran. He co-founded and serves as Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and teaches at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.

Find Parsi here: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/

On 11 June 2026, I was on the “Deep Dive” with Lt. Col. (ret.) Danny Davis talking about Ukraine and Iran. Danny and I laid out the case that although neither the Iran war nor the Ukraine war is over, it is clear that Iran and Russia are going to be the winners and the US and its allies are going to suffer a pair of humiliating defeats. Save for the 1991 Gulf War, the US has been on a serious losing streak since at least the Vietnam war. Think Afghanistan and Iraq. There seems to be little doubt that the Iran and Ukraine wars are going to scramble the international landscape in significant ways, which is a subject for another day.

Andrew Korybko

Iran is poised to gradually return to the US-led Western order within certain limits exactly as Iran’s moderate faction has long wanted, its hardline faction has successfully preserved the armed forces and their missile stockpile, while Israel achieved none of its goals in its most epic defeat ever.

Iran and the US plan to sign a Zarif-inspired memorandum of understanding (MoU) on ending the Third Gulf War this Friday in Switzerland. The exact details aren’t yet known, and Fortune reported that there were at least three competing texts, but all of them “include similar elements around reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, giving Iran sanctions relief and opening the door to longer-term negotiations around its nuclear program.” That’s already enough to arrive at several very important conclusions.

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