Ameriški general Rob Spalding je nedavno izjavil, da vojna med ZDA in Iranom in ameriški vojaški anagažma utegne trajati 20 let. Tako kot angažma v Afganistanu ali Iraku. Toda problem je,  da ZDA tokrat za nasporotnika nimajo pastirskega naroda Afganistancev brez industrijske osnove ali porušenega in nacionalno fragmentiranega Iraka prav tako brez industrijske osnove, pač pa državo z 90 milijoni prebivalcev in 30 milijoni moških, sposobnih za orožje in državo z dolgo tradicijo znanosti, vsioko izobraženimi tehničnimi kadri in z industrijo proizvodnje sofisticiranih  raket in dronov. Iran ima večji arzenal raket kot ZDA in Iran ga lahko nadomešča hitreje kot ZDA. V vojni izčrpavanja šteje število za orožje sposobnih moških in sposobnost zagotavljanja orožja in streliva. Hkrati šteje tudi dejstvo, da gre pri Iranu za vojno za preživetje, pri Iranu pa za vojno za prestiž in vpliv. ZDA nikoli ne bodo poslale 30 milijonov vojakov v vojno proti Iranu in nikoli ne bodo namenile večine svojega proračuna za proizvodnjo orožja. Kar preprosto pomeni, da ZDA vojne izčrpavanja z Iranom ne morejo zmagati.

Former U.S. Army officer and missile-defense expert David T. Pyne just delivered one of the clearest assessments yet of the Iran conflict. His numbers and operational read paint a picture far darker than official statements. America is burning through its most critical munitions faster than it can replace them, while Iran remains resilient and strategically positioned to outlast the campaign.

THE MUNITIONS COLLAPSE

➡️ Pyne cites CIA-linked analysis showing the United States depleted roughly 45 percent of its overall offensive and defensive missile stocks in the first 38 days alone.

➡️ At least one-third of the Tomahawk inventory is already gone.

➡️ SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors have been expended at rates that signal either intense naval fighting or massive defensive intercepts against incoming Iranian missiles.

➡️ Iran, by contrast, has lost only about 30 percent of its missile force through both kinetic strikes and its own expenditure, leaving it with an estimated 5,600 ballistic missiles still available.

THE STRATEGIC REALITY

➡️ Iran enjoys anti-ship missile supremacy inside the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

➡️ U.S. Navy surface ships have been forced to retreat after brief forays; sustained control of the strait by American forces is not currently achievable.

➡️ Continuous daily bombing has failed to achieve a single one of the six original objectives Trump publicly set.

➡️ Nuclear facilities, including the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain complex, remain intact and beyond the reach of even the largest conventional penetrators.

THE ESCALATION TRAP

➡️ Trump has floated everything from obliterating Iran’s energy grid to limited ground raids on islands and facilities.

➡️ Pyne assesses any major airborne or amphibious assault would produce heavy U.S. casualties while giving Iran a ready-made hostage and attrition opportunity only 16 miles from its mainland.

➡️ The war has already become a pure attrition contest. The side that retains the larger remaining stockpile of missiles and drones will hold the strategic advantage.

THE BOTTOM LINE

America is fighting a near-peer adversary with superior regional missile density and no viable theory of victory. Every additional week of escalation further empties U.S. magazines while Iran’s core capabilities endure. The longer this continues, the more irreversible the depletion becomes.

This is the sound of a superpower discovering its limits in real time.

HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal