Bine Kordež

Pred dnevi smo lahko v Delu prebrali zanimiv članek o dediščinah (tekst je bil povzet po časopisu The Economist). Vrednost dediščin se v zadnjih letih v vseh državah povečuje in letni obseg dediščin že presega 10 % BDP posameznih držav. Pri tem je zanimivo, da kljub veliki vrednosti teh prenosov premoženja, državni statistični uradi ne objavljajo skoraj nobenih podatkov o dediščinah in omenjene ocene temeljijo samo na raznih analizah raziskovalcev tega področja.

Značilno je tudi, da so bili v začetku 20. stoletja prihodki iz davkov na dediščino pomemben del celotnega davčnega priliva na primer v ZDA in Veliki Britaniji. Kasneje pa se je politika obrnila proti tem davkom in njihov pomen za javne finance je vse nižji. Večina držav davka na dediščino sploh nima, v podrobnejših poročilih evropskega statističnega urada pa zasledimo, da s tem davki še največ zbere Francija (0,6 % BDP v 2019) in Nemčija (0,2 %), Avstrija, Švedska in Češka pa na primer praktično nič.

Tudi za Slovenijo v poročilih državnega statističnega urada (SURS) o obsegu dediščin ne boste o tem našli nobenega podatka, prav tako tudi ne na spletu. Ker gre za zelo velike zneske, je tudi za našo državo zanimivo oceniti letne vrednosti podedovanega premoženja in njihov pomen za dohodke državljanov. Ker kot rečeno, kakih uradnih podatkov nimamo, vrednost lahko samo ocenjujemo na osnovi različnega nabora podatkov. V nadaljevanju so predstavljene sicer zelo grobe ocene, a za namene prikaza te tematike, zbrani podatki zadoščajo.

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Nisem prepričan, da bo do resnejših sankcij proti Izraelu kdaj res prišlo, kajti moč finančnega sektorja, ki ga obvladuje kapitalska elita, ki se identificira kot židovsjega porekla, je gromozansko velika. Je močnejša od moči ZDA in katerekoli države z izjemo Kitajske. Je pa dobro, da so se tudi v največjih medijih začeli glede tega opredeljevati. Financial Times je bil prvi glede obsodbe izraelskega genocida nad Palestinci, temu valu se je kasneje pridružilo več velikih medijev. In Financial Times je spet prvi, ki javno diskutira o nujnosti sankcij proti Izraelu in kje bi Izrael najbolj bolelo. Izrael bi najbolj bolele sankcije glede prepovedi trgovanja, saj je polovično odvisen od uvoza iz držav EU.

Torej, kdaj bomo v Evropskem svetu imeli diskusijo o tem?

Europe’s patience with Benjamin Netanyahu’s war in Gaza and Israeli settlers’ aggression in the occupied West Bank may finally be running out.

In the past few weeks, EU foreign ministers have triggered a review of Israel’s association agreement with the bloc, Britain has halted trade talks, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund blacklisted an Israeli company for facilitating energy deliveries to West Bank settlements, and the leaders of France, the UK and Canada threatened to put sanctions on the country. Even Germany, Israel’s most stalwart backer in Europe, is criticising the country’s conduct.

Too little too late, some will say. And they will point to how fast the west imposed sanctions on Russia, in meaningful and unprecedented ways, after Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and put the difference down to hypocrisy.

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I suddenly realized that the completition between China and the United States has entered a decisive stage, and the fundamental reason is that China has played the rare earth card.

After this card was played, Americans increasingly feels being “choked”. They will definitely invest in the rare earth industry and study refining technology. Although their manufacturing has declined a lot recently, we obviously cannot expect them to never make a breakthrough, it will takes 5 or 10 years or more.

Within the 5-10 year window, rare earth card can be used to either exchange some geopolitical benefit such as Taiwan or greatly weaken the American military production for years. Both great for China! China can live with either result.

But if China now relax rare earth exports now, it will only give American more time to build its own rare earth industry, and China will lose this card by then. This determines that once China decides to play this card, it will definitely be strategic and long-term, rather than short-term.

This is actually somewhat like the steel and oil embargo the United States imposed on Japan before the Pearl Harbor incident. Americans are now in a state of anxiety and madness, just like the Japanese in 1941. The options faced by the Japanese at the time were to either withdraw their troops from China as the United States requested or their naval vessels were unable to go to sea due to lack of oil in 1-2 years. Japanese finally chose the Pearl Harbor.

For China, The first thing is to realize that the big moment has arrived. PLA must be well-prepared for the war. The possibility of the United States attacking China’s “Pearl Harbor” cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, China also should tell Americans that as long as they support China’s unification with Taiwan, the supply of rare earths can be restored. There indeed is a way out other than WW3.

Vir: DaiWW

Ta teden je postregel z novim Trumpovim javnim izpadom. No, z najbolj glasnim izmed številnih. V izopadu je KItajsko obtožil, da ne spoštuje dogovora iz Geneve (pred tem je seveda “naložil”, da je s tem dogovorom Kitajsko rešil pred kolapsom, resnica je sicer obratna, da je rešil ameriške prodajalce pred kolapsom in zraven še kazino na borzah). Problem je seveda zamolčal, da je prav Trump prvi prekršil dogovor, ko je de facto prepovedal, da bi kdorkoli v svetu uporabljal Huaweijeve čipe Ascend, ker da s tem kršijo ameriške sankcije, in ko je prepovedal izvoz Boeingovih motorjev za kitajska letala. Kitajska se je ostro odzvala na te prepovedi, tako verbalno kot s prepovedjo izvoza magnetov, ki temeljijo na mineralih redke zemlje in so ključni za proizvodnjo električnih motorjev in čipov.

Spodaj je zgodba.

Trump Accuses China Of Violating Agreement He Did Not Adhere To

The U.S. President is performing one of his usual stunts:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – May 30, 2025, 12:09 UTC…
I made a FAST DEAL with China in order to save them from what I thought was going to be a very bad situation, and I didn’t want to see that happen. Because of this deal, everything quickly stabilized and China got back to business as usual. Everybody was happy! That is the good news!!! The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!

Trump’s take is, of course, nonsense. But to see that one has to take a step back.

Trump had raised absurdly high tariffs against China which then had responded in kind. Additional hostile measures imposed by the U.S. were targeting China’s import and production of semiconductors.

In response China limited the export of products for which it holds a monopoly. These are mainly rare-earth elements and magnets produced with them. While these are rather small items trade-wise they are needed to make modern electrical motors and are thus a significant part of the supply chain for higher level production items.

The high tariffs on products from China threatened to lead to empty shelves in U.S. markets. The financial markets were concerned. The U.S. dollar, stocks markets and treasuries decreased in price. A financial crisis was developing.  Trump had to pull back.

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Spodnji nastop Glenna Greenwalda (urednika Uncensored) pri Tuckerju Carlssonu (vem, da liberalci ne marajo gledati Calssona, vendar se splača pogledati, sploh del glede Epsteina kot izraelskega modela za izsiljevanje politikov in vplivnežev)….

… je očitno toliko sprovociral izraelske službe, da so proti njemu sprožile propagandno kampanjo, češ da je gej. No, problema sta, da je Greenwald že zdavnaj razkril, da je gej (bil je poročen z moškim, ki pa je umrl) in drugič, da je kampanja udarila nazaj, saj je Greenwald začel dobivati javno podporo od povsod. Izraelske službe so spregledale, da so “liberalne vrednote” na Zahodu razširjene približno enako kot izraelski vpliv. Spodaj je zgodba.

As you know, all Jews are expected to unequivocally support Israel’s genocide, otherwise they are antisemites. Jews are not allowed to think for themselves and any Jews that say or do the right thing must be punished.

It is for this reason that Mossad decided to bring down Jewish traitor Glenn Greenwald. The journalist who co-founded the Intercept dared to reject the hive mind and tell the truth about Israel.

Greenwald went on The Tucker Carlson show to break down exactly how Israel wields its influence over the US government and the CIA. Obviously, telling the truth about Israel is an “antisemitic conspiracy theory”.

Israel was given no choice but to prove that it never uses tactics such as blackmail to control people. It therefore decided to end Greenwald’s journalistic career by revealing that he is, in fact, gay.

Yes, the country that puts rainbow flags on bombs, and screams that “Hamas would throw you off a rooftop”, admitted it sees homosexuality as a scandal. Only problem was, no one told Israel that Glenn came out years ago and was openly married… to a man (who sadly passed away). Plus, it’s 2025 and no one gives a shit about sexuality.

Disturbingly, Israel’s move has triggered a massive wave of support for Glenn from everyone who doesn’t hate gays. Countless people who had never heard of him were suddenly checking out his journalism. Millions of untainted minds were exposed to the truth about Israel.

While this move has massively backfired, I would like to assure you Israel still has massive influence over our politicians. This is because they were regulars at Epstein island and the public is not exactly keen on paedos.

Needless to say, all of the paedos in western governments will remain firmly behind Israel, no matter how many war crimes it commits, leaving you with no way of figuring out who they are. I bet you feel reassured now, don’t you?

Vir: Normal Island News

Ko je Robert Golob prevzel vodenje vlade s prepričljivo večino, so med podjetniki in splošno javnostjo prevladovala visoka pričakovanja, da bo nova oblast učinkovita, razvojno usmerjena in prijazna do gospodarstva. Toda tri leta kasneje se utrjuje vtis, da je vlada vse prej kot učinkovita, vse prej kot razvojno usmerjena in vse prej kot prijazna do gospodarstva in ljudi.

Da Golobova vlada nima nobene razvojne vizije, pravzaprav niti nobenega ne kratkoročnega in ne srednjeročnega načrta, kam usmeriti slovensko gospodarstvo, je bilo jasno od prvega dneva vladanja. Po treh letih dela te vlade pa se zdi, da je bila vlada ne samo brez pozitivne usmeritve, pač pa, da je sistematično sprejemala ukrepe, ki gospodarstvu škodijo. Vrhunec tega odnosa se je pokazal, ko se je predsednik vlade ob opozorilih, da slovenska podjetja zaradi boljših pogojev poslovanja selijo svojo dejavnost v Hrvaško, obregnil z izjavo, da to pomeni »morda kakšen izziv manj za našo šolsko, zdravstveno in socialno mrežo.« Finančni minister pa je pred tem na televiziji na isti očitek cinično odvrnil: »Samo povem, da so v Bosni še ugodnejši.«

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As a European who has lived in America, I used to believe the myth that the United States was the freest and most democratic nation on Earth. That’s what we were all told. But now that I’ve spent time in these political circles and spoken with major right-wing influencers, what I’ve seen and heard has completely shattered that illusion.

Let me tell you the story I’ve heard over and over again, from different voices, in different cities, at different events. Influencers, some of the biggest names on the right, get pulled aside at private gatherings. Someone leans in, starts a casual conversation, and then comes the pitch: “Have you ever thought about going into politics? We can get you into Congress.”

But there’s always a condition. They’re told to go to Jerusalem. Kiss the wall. Symbolically pledge loyalty. Only then does the funding and institutional support start flowing, usually from AIPAC and its donor network. I know how crazy that sounds, but it’s the same story every time.

And once you understand how things actually work, you start to see the pattern everywhere. Nearly every so-called “America First” politician in Congress takes AIPAC money. The few who refuse it—like Thomas Massie—get relentlessly targeted. AIPAC pours money into their opponents’ campaigns. Even Trump openly said they plan to get rid of him. And you still think this is the land of the free?

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V vednost:

Over the last seven days the Ukrainian military has launched over one thousand drones against targets in Russia. Most of these were shot down by Russian air defenses. There are no reports of any serious damage.

The biggest effect the week long drone attacks achieved was to shut down air traffic in Moscow for several hours.

After waiting a few days the Russian military responded in kind.

Over the last three days a record number of drones and missiles were launched against military installations and production facilities in Ukraine (archived):

Russia stepped up missile-and-drone assaults on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and other regions, killing at least 12 people overnight into Sunday after President Trump last week declined to impose further sanctions on Moscow over its refusal to halt its invasion.Russia attacked with a total of 367 drones and missiles—one of the largest single-night raids of the war, according to the Ukrainian Air Force—in a second consecutive day of pounding strikes that sent civilians running for shelters in the middle of the night.

Over three days the Russian forces used some 1,000 heavy drones plus 58 cruise- and 31 ballistic-missiles to attack Ukraine.

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John Mearsheimer in Branko Milanović imata popolnoma prav, ko pravita, da je mainstream ekonomska veda absolutno neuporabna za razumevanje realizma v mednarodnih odnosih. Ekonomska veda je irelevantna, ko poskuša Trumpa in njegovo kliko podučevati osnov ekonomije glede negativnih učinkov carin, kajti Trumpov (pred njim tudi Bidnov) namen ni bil izboljšati blaginje Američanov, pač pa škoditi Kitajski in ji preprečiti, da bi tehnološko, gospodarsko in vojaško prehitela ZDA. Ekonomisti s(m)o sposobni razmišljati samo v okviru win-win ali win-lose strategije, torej iz vidika konkurenčnega boja za povečanje absolutne blaginje. Naš instrumentarij pa ni sposoben pojasniti lose-lose strategije neke države (podjetja, združbe ali posameznikov), torej da so (bili) Trump I, Biden in Trump II pripravljeni žrtvovati blaginjo Američanov (prek višjih uvoznih carin in prepovedi izvoza tehnologije) z namenom, da Kitajska ne bi pridobila relativno glede na ZDA oziroma da bi ZDA ostale pred Kitajsko. Ekonomisti nis(m)o sposobni razumeti racionalnosti v ravnanju nekoga, ki z uporabo različnih ukrepov (tudi vojne) želi zagotoviti, da bo ostal ali postal (relativno) boljši od drugega, pa čeprav s tem oba absolutno izgubljata. 

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In a recent excellent article “War and International politics” (freely accessible) John Mearsheimer presents a succinct version of the realist theory of international relations, as applied to the current multipolar world. He focuses on the inevitable existence of war due to the way the international system is structured: it is an anarchy with no single country enjoying monopoly of power akin to what the state has in domestic politics, and thus with nobody to enforce the rules. He takes to task liberal thinkers for their naivete of believing (in the 1990s) that wars would end and great power politics become obsolete. (Similar naïve view was also ridiculed by Karl Polanyi in The Great Transformation.) Mearsheimer explains it in part by the fact that many liberal thinkers came intellectually of age during the unipolar moment when such dreams, with scant relation to historic realities, could be entertained.

In passing, Mearsheimer makes an observation that is extremely important for economists. He writes:

Mainstream economists can focus on facilitating economic competition within a fundamentally cooperative worldwide system because they pay hardly any attention to how states think about survival in international anarchy, in which war is always a possibility. Thus, concepts like security competition and the balance of power, which are fundamentally important for studying international politics, have no place in conventional economics…Moreover, economists tend to privilege a state’s absolute gains, not its relative gains, which is to say they largely ignore the balance of power.

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