Ključno vprašanje je, ali bi se Kitajska tudi brez ameriških sankcij tehnološko osamosvojila. Scott Kennedy v Foreign Affairs trdi, da ne. Kitajska je bilo prvotno zadovoljna s tekmovanjem pri ostalih proizvodih. Do tega, da mora postati tehnološko neodvisna od ZDA, so jo prisilile ameriške sankcije. Podobno velja glede trgovine nasploh. Kitajska je bila zadovoljna z globalno multilateralno ureditvijo trgovine po pravilih WTO, Trumpove in Bidnove carine in negotovost oziroma nevarnost, da jo lahko Amerika kadarkoli s carinami ali sankcijami odreže od ameriškega in evropskega trga, je Kitajsko prisililo, da prestrukturira trgovinske tokove v smeri BRICS oziroma držav globalnega juga. Oboje je Kitajsko samo še bolj tehnološko, gospodarsko in politično ojačalo in jo predestiniralo za bodočo vodilno globalno silo.

This is a good read by @KennedyCSIS in ForeignAffairs on “how America’s war on Chinese tech backfired”. Kennedy essentially makes the point, as was all too predictable, that far from hampering China’s tech development efforts, US sanctions actually ended up: 1) “turbo-boosting” China’s technological ambitions and pace of innovation, and 2) damaging U.S. innovation capacity by reducing R&D revenue for US firms, restricting scholarly cooperation, and limiting access to talented Chinese researchers and students.

In short, exactly the contrary of what was intended…

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Zanimiva teza v spodnji niti, o kateri doslej nisem razmišljal.

Grožnje o 10 %, 25 % ali 60 % carinah je sicer treba vzeti resno, čeprav in ker so del Trumpove pogajalske taktike. Trump je pač nepredvidljiv, izven racionalnega ekonomskega konteksta in bo poskušal nekaj iztržiti za svoje lomastenje.

Toda meni je bolj zanimivo (in po svoje zabavno) v spodnjem pogovoru, ko David Frum Trumpovo obsesijo z omejevanjem mednarodne trgovine opiše kot “družbeno reakcionarni projekt spolnega rebalansiranja ameriške družbe“. Kontekst projekta naj bi bil, kako moškemu povrniti nekdanjo vlogo vodje družine, kot tistega, ki materialno poskrbi za družino. Čeprav so že več kot pol stoletja v Ameriki ženske tiste, ki imajo v večjem deležu višjo izobrazbo kot moški, je bila njihova zaposlitev omejena na tajnice, natakarice ali trgovke, moški pa so bili tradicionalno tisti, ki so s sindikalno zaščitenimi službami in plačami zagotavljali stabilen dohodek družine in tako ohranjali svoj dominantni položaj v družini in družbi. In, tako trdi Frum, Trumpov projekt naj bi jim to vlogo spet povrnil.

Tudi če v ozadju Trumpovih carin res gre za tovrsten poskus spolnega reinženiringa ameriške družbe, je iluzoren in obsojen na propad. Prvič, izgubljena industrijska proizvodnja (denimo v tradicionalno avtomobilsko industrijo) se v Ameriko ne bo več vrnila. In drugič, tudi če bi se, bi morala biti popolnoma avtomatizirana in robotizirana, da bi lahko bila konkurenčna s kitajsko, japonsko, južnokorejsko in nemško (če bo slednja preživela). Tam pa ob robotih ni prostora za manualna delovna mesta za tekočim trakom. Torej idealizirana tradicionalna delovna mesta iz 1950-ih in 1960-ih v avtomobilskih tovarnah se v Ameriko ne bodo več vrnila.

Ameriški moški bodo morali iti študirat za inženirje, če bodo hoteli, da sodelujejo v tem procesu oziroma da bodo sploh imeli službe.

Thomas Fazi je prebral “Spomine” Angele Merkel. Spodaj je nekaj odlomkov iz njegove odlične refleksije glede knjige. V dveh stavkih: Ljudje danes pogrešajo obdobje stabilnosti in občutka varnosti, ki jim ga ja dajalo trdno vodenje Angele Merkel, toda Merklova je hkrati trasirala trende, zaradi katerih je Nemčija danes v gospodarskem in političnem razkroju. In med slednjimi ni navezava na poceni ruski plin, pač pa katasrofalna Energiewende, zapiranje jedrskih elektrarn, politika varčevanja, odsotnost industrijske politike in javnih naložb, odprtje vrat za imigracije ter dopuščanje nespoštovanja sporazumov iz Minska.

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“Merkel-Nostalgie” has swept a Germany grappling with war, a tanking economy and a collapsed government. The former German chancellor’s autobiography sold 35,000 copies on the day of publication, and Berliners queued for hours to have her sign their copies. As Angela Merkel said herself: you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone. Especially if your successor is Olaf Scholz — one of the weakest and least popular chancellors in the history of the Federal Republic, who has presided over Germany’s dramatic fall in economic and international standing. Thus, it’s perhaps not surprising that Germany has unexpectedly found itself longing for the stability and leadership symbolised during her 16 years in power, drawing voters back to her old party, the centre-right CDU. But is this nostalgia really justified?

The reality is that, in many respects, Merkel paved the way to today’s crisis. Her advocacy for stringent austerity measures, implemented both across Europe and within Germany after the 2008 financial crisis, ushered in over a decade of stagnation and underinvestment. Her policies left Germany’s infrastructure — bridges, roads and railways — to crumble; her doubling down on Germany’s neo-mercantilist, export-driven economic model, especially during the euro crisis, stifled internal demand by compressing wages and encouraging precarious employment, while leaving the economy overly dependent on exports.

By pursuing an industrial policy that emphasised traditional manufacturing sectors — automobiles, heavy industry and mechanical parts — she left Germany lagging in the high-tech revolution. By phasing out nuclear energy, she deprived the country of a clean and cost-effective energy source. By opening the door to over a million asylum seekers, she created serious challenges in social cohesion and public safety. By embracing a paternalistic and TINA-driven approach to politics, exemplified in her concept of “market-conforming democracy”, she starved the German democratic discourse.

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Ta naslov ni tako patetičen, kot se morda zdi na prvi pogled. Dejansko odraža sedanjo krizno situacijo, najbrž najhujšo krizo Evrope po drugi svetovni vojni. Zaradi geopolitičnih napetosti, v katere se je Evropa sama zapletla in posledične gospodarske stagnacije ter zaradi kritičnega trenda zaostajanja v tehnološkem razvoju in produktivnosti za Kitajsko in ZDA, je na široko odprto vprašnje nadaljnjega obstoja EU.

Ničesar ne dramatiziram. Samo gledam trende in ocenjujem sposobnost odziva evropske politične »elite« in evropske administracije. In oboje me navdaja z neizmernim strahom glede prihodnosti EU. Dolgoročni trendi so strašansko slabi, kratkoročni pa še slabši. V skladu s temi trendi je EU obsojena najprej na gospodarsko stagnacijo, zaton njene gospodarske in politične moči in posledično tudi, kot je opozoril Mario Draghi v poročilu o evropski (ne)konkurenčnosti, na propad njenega modela socialne države. Socialno državo je v Evropi mogoče vzdrževati zgolj ob solidno visoki gospodarski rasti, ki bi kompenzirala naraščajoče stroške, ki prihajajo s staranjem prebivalstva (za zdravstvo, pokojnine, dolgotrajno oskrbo).

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Ko Američani rečejo Nemcem: “Obesili vas bomo”,

Nemci odgovorijo: “Prinesemo lastno vrv ali boste vi dali svojo?”

Francija nima samo bedne ekonomske politike (Macronova ekonomska politika je daleč najslabša v zadnjih treh desetletjih; indikator tega je, da se celo Grčija danes dolgoročno zadolžuje ceneje od Francije), pač pa tudi bedno in nekonsistentno zunanjo politiko (Macron je znan po svojih pompoznih izjavah, ki jih že naslednji dan spremeni – od Kitajske, Ukrajine do Izraela). Francija je podobno kot Nemčija s svojim nesposobnim političnim vodstvom degradirala svojo moč in svojo kredibilnost v svetu. Postala je karikatura same sebe.

Spodaj je dober primer francoske bedne hipokrizije in nekonsistentnosti na primeru tiralice Mednarodnega sodišča za Netayahujem. Sramota.

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Benjamin Netanyahu is immune to the ICC arrest warrant, the French foreign ministry assured us yesterday. The French have some skills in bending the law, testing its flexibility and durability, but this is a stretch that is ultimately bound to fail legally, though it may politically be a success.

The French argument is that Netanyahu is covered by immunity because he is the head of a government in a state that is not a member of the ICC. This legal argument won’t hold, according to legal experts on immunity.

First there is no extra-treatment for heads of states. According to Art. 27 of the Rome Statute, all wanted persons are equal before the court, including heads of state or government. And no immunities under international law may bar the court from exercising its jurisdiction.

Second, there is the definition of jurisdiction. Israel may not be member of the ICC, but the State of Palestine is. It was granted membership back in 2015. This means the court can investigate Israeli nationals for crimes committed in occupied Palestine, which includes the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

There is also no exception for France. All 124 signatories to the Rome Statute, including all EU member states, are legally obliged to arrest Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant on their soil and hand them over to the courts. Member states are the enforcers of ICC arrest warrants, whether or not they agree with them politically.

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Andrew Korybko

The populist conservative-nationalist frontrunner might refuse to allow NATO troops to transit through Romania as part of a conventional intervention in Ukraine if he wins the second round next month.

The surprise victory of populist conservative-nationalist Calin Georgescu in the first round of Romania’s presidential election gives this heterodox outsider the chance to enter into office next month. The Mainstream Media is apoplectic since he criticized Romania’s hosting of the US’ missile defense infrastructure and is against perpetuating NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine. He’s also a devout Orthodox Christian and praised some of his country’s most controversial World War II-era figures.

Interestingly, he was also the diaspora’s favorite, with the added twist being that more in Western Europe voted for him than those in Eastern Europe. This suggests that his appeal is also due to the hope that he’ll bring long-overdue accountability to his infamously corrupt country and finally help its people improve their living standards through more effective economic, financial, and developmental policies. Foreign policy is important, but local issues and economics far outweigh the former for average voters.

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Spodnja razlaga glede delovanja in destruktivne moči rakete Orešnik je strašljiva. Putin jo tudi uporablja z namenom zastraševanja. Kljub temu so tehnične lastnosti delovanja rakete res zastrašujoče. Zaradi velike kinetične energije med letom (nad 11 Machov) se okrog nje ustavri polje plazme, ki jo ščiti pred radarskim in najbrž tudi satelitskim detektiranjem. Zaradi velikih hitrosti v terminalni fazi je ni mogoče prestreči z nobenim zahodnim protizračnim sistemom. Ko zadane cilj se zaradi velike kinetične energije razvijejo temperature blizu 4, tisoč stopinj Celzija (temperatura sonca na površini je med 5 in 6 tisoč stopinj C), kar pomeni, da z učinkom plazme vse stvari spremeni v prah oziroma praelemente. In po njenem učinkovovanju ni radiacije.

Orešnik ne potrebuje jedrskih konic, je zamenjava zanje. Popolni game changer.

Razvoj dronov in hipersoničnih raket in zdaj še Orešnika z lastnostjo, da nosi do 36 konic, bistveno spreminja razmerja vojaške moči. ZDA so do sedaj svojo vojaško prevlado utemeljevale na letalski moči (nadzvočnih letalih in letalonosilkah), kar se je ob tem razvoju izkazalo kot neuporabno. Amerišlke letalonosilke so se izkazale kot neuporabne že proti najbolj pocenskim dronom, ki so jih nanje spuščali jemenski Hutiji in so se raje umaknile iz Rdečega morja. Izraelska letala so se izkazala kot neuporabna v zadnjem izraelskem napadu na Iran, ki se mu niso upala približati na več kot 100 kilometrov, na drugi strani so iranske hipersonične rakete neovirano prodrle skozi izraelski Iron Dome. Toda z enim Orešnikom lahko Rusija iz igre vrže vse ameriške letalonosilke v Sredozemlju, z drugim pa vse ameriške letalske baze v srednji Evropi. To je strašljivo. Ni več potrebe po strašenju z jedrskim orožjem.

Tule je še razlaga za novinarje:

Will the clean hydrogen sector end this year in better shape than 12 months ago?

On the face of it, recent evidence points to a resounding ‘no’, given project cancellations, plunging stock prices, very limited progress in reaching FID and widespread reluctance to commit to long-term offtake deals.

UK company Johnson Matthey added to the gloom in late November when it reported a 46% year-on-year drop in first-half sales of hydrogen technologies, citing the “the slowing buildout of supply chains and infrastructure due to a lack of clarity around regulation and incentives.” It has reduced capex and headcount in its hydrogen business, and delayed the startup of an £80m ($101m) fuel-cell component plant in the UK.

Siemens Energy, which recently launched a large-scale electrolyser factory in Berlin in a joint project with French industrial gases company Air Liquide, struck a similarly downbeat note at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London. The market for hydrogen has “completely stalled”, with less than 7% of projects reaching FID, Anne-Laure de Chammard, executive board member of Siemens Energy, told the forum.

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