Konstruktiven pristop k Trumpovi carinski norosti

Olivier Blanchard, nekdanji profesor na MIT in nekdanji glavni ekonomist IMF, ima dober nasvet glede tega, kako bi morala EU reagirati na Trumpove carine:

Preudarno; udariti nazaj, kjer Trumpove tehnološke tajkune najbolj boli; prenehati kupovati ameriško orožje; ohraniti pravila svetovne trgovine z državami, ki to želijo; in skleniti dogovor s Kitajsko, ki glede e-avtomobilov omogoča opcijo med carinami in kitajskimi investicijami v EU.

Tentative advice to the European Union:

Take your time to respond. Let cool heads prevail.

If you think that Trump will not back down (likely in my opinion), best economic (not necessarily political) response: Do not retaliate. Ignore it.  Not because the Trump administration shot the US in the foot that there is any reason to do the same to the EU.

If you think you can get Trump to change his mind, then go for choke points. Make life harder for the GAFA using the anti coercion instrument. They have the phone numbers of the White House, and, if they hurt, they will call and explain the facts of life to the boss. (But realize that this is not without costs to the EU consumer)

Kill two birds at once. Shift as much of defense spending from the US to Europe. Have a major reallocation plan.  This will take years but is high priority.  Spend the EU money you need to help.

Be constructive rather than  only defensive.  Form coalitions of the willing with the countries still willing to play by some rules, going beyond Europe to Asia, Latin America, and Africa.  Do it for multinational corporate taxation, global warming, health, even tariff rules. 

Have a major negotiation with China, in particular on automobiles (tariffs, but with attractive inward FDI/joint venture conditions)

Vir: Olivier Blanchard