Enter Syrsky, who had been ground commander under Zaluzhny and was now put in charge of all Ukrainian military forces. Syrsky is the same guy whose tactics led to the collapse of Bakhmut and very heavy casualties, earning that city the name “meat grinder.”

Syrsky immediately called up three or four brigades to save Avdiivka from collapse. But his planned rescue operation almost immediately got into serious trouble.

Some of Syrsky’s brigades were being assembled and organized in a small town around 15 kilometers from Avdiivka, called Selydove. The Russians discovered the Ukrainian army operations in Selydove and attacked with Iskander missiles and cluster weapons.

According to Russian sources blogging on various media networks (Telegram and X, for example), the Russian attack all but wiped out an entire brigade with heavy Ukrainian casualties.

Ukraine’s propaganda mill went into high gear, alleging that the Russian attack was aimed at a hospital’s maternity ward in Selydov. But the reality was that Ukraine lost around 1,000 to 1,500 soldiers.

Most western news sources parroted the Ukrainian line.

Zelensky was on his way to the Munich Security Conference, where he got a standing ovation. Before he left Kiev he ordered Syrsky to stop the Russians from taking Avdiivka.

Syrsky committed the 3rd Brigade to the fight for the city. The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade in reality is the reformed Azov Brigade. The Azov brigade is the backbone of Zelensky’s ultra-nationalist support in Ukraine. If any organization in Ukraine fits Putin’s description of Ukrainian Nazis, the 3rd Brigade is the premier example. Zelensky’s political power depends on the Ukrainian military, and in particular the ultra-nationalists.

The 3rd Brigade did not perform as advertised. When its units got into Avdiivka, coming in from the north, they found the situation dire. By that time there were around 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers in the northern parts of the city, mostly holed up in the coke plant. Another 3,500 were in the center of the city verging on the southern town’s districts and an old abandoned airfield.

The 3rd Brigade disobeyed orders and ran out of the town, countermanding Syrsky and Zelensky’s explicit orders. Above all, Zelensky did not want to get embarrassed while he was at the Munich conference exactly while he was running around trying to get more ammunition.

Some from the 3rd Brigade surrendered to the Russians. This is what triggered Syrsky to signal a retreat and abandon Avdiivka. That retreat was a significant blow to Zelensky’s prestige and, apparently, there were angry phone calls from Munich to Syrsky. But Syrsky had little choice, other than to openly surrender. Instead he announced a “new” strategy, precisely what Zaluzhny had previously recommended.

The loss of Avdiivka leaves Zelensky in a bad situation. He has all but lost his most ardent supporters in the Army, has humiliated his former commander Zaluzhny and replaced him with Syrsky who has a reputation as a loser. He has lost face with the Europeans – and probably with the United States, although it is hard to tell for sure.

Washington does not want a deal with the Russians. All its focus has been on handing Russia multiple defeats, squeezing the Russians dry and replacing the country’s leader, Putin. Biden’s team also can’t stomach the idea that the Ukrainians might make a deal with Russia and undermine the policy.

Most of the central elements of Washington’s policy have failed. Excessive sanctions did not break the Russian economy but succeeded in driving the Russians in a wholly new direction, embracing China and India and BRICS. US technology did not turn the tide of war in Ukraine’s favor.

Not talking to the Russians helped solidify the Russian view that Washington and NATO were the enemy, intensifying their already stressed view that they had been lied to over the years about NATO expansion. While the US and Europe either could not or would not revitalize their defense industrial base, the Russians did so with a vengeance.

Meanwhile the US and Europe are standing by for the war to end and hundreds of billions to be sunk into rebuilding Ukraine, which is less and less likely to happen under US and European auspices.

The bottom line is that Zelensky’s regime is tottering. Because of Zelensky’s martial law-based regime, there will be no elections and no open political process. But anger in the army is growing, and sooner or later the military will choose a leader, most likely Zaluzhny.

There will be regime change in Kiev, coming soon.

Vir: Stephen Bryen, Asia Times

* Stephen Bryen served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.