Nate Silver je spet napisal odlično analizo na 538, v kateri je analiziral 14 možnih scenarijev, kako se bo obnašal predsedniški Trump in kako bo končal – kot heroj ali z ustavnim odpoklicem. Vse scenariji niso enako verjetni, toda plauziblini so vsi.
When faced with highly uncertain conditions, military units and major corporations sometimes use an exercise called scenario planning. The idea is to consider a broad range of possibilities for how the future might unfold to help guide long-term planning and preparation. The goal is not necessarily to assess the relative likelihood of each scenario so much as to keep an open mind so you’re not so surprised when events don’t unfold quite as you’d expected.
This technique might be useful in the case of President Trump.
Here, then, is a list of 14 plausible futures for Trump, grouped into a few broad categories. Some of them are mutually exclusive while others can be mixed and matched. And there are undoubtedly many possible futures that I haven’t considered. …
Group I: Extrapolations from the status quo.
This first group of scenarios involve Trump not changing his behavior very much. But the public reaction to him varies, following a steady course in Scenario 1, a downward trajectory in Scenario 2, and an upward trajectory in Scenario 3.
1. Trump keeps on Trumpin’ and the country remains evenly divided.
2. Trump gradually (or not-so-gradually) enters a death spiral.
3. Trump keeps rewriting the political rules and gradually becomes more popular.
Group II: Trump changes direction.
These scenarios imagine that Trump shifts his approach, whether because what he was doing before just wasn’t working or because the challenges of the presidency reshape his habits.
4. Trump mellows out, slightly.
5. Trump cedes authority.
6. Trump successfully pivots to the populist center (but with plenty of authoritarianism too).
7. Trump flails around aimlessly after an unsuccessful attempt to pivot.
Group III: The three horsemen of the presidential apocalypse: war, recession, scandal.
When presidencies fail, it’s usually for one of three reasons — because of an economic downturn, an unpopular war, or a major scandal. So we should consider how these might play out for President Trump. Of the three, war is the most uncertain case, as armed conflicts can sometimes produce an initial boost to a president’s popularity.
8. Trump is consumed by scandal.
9. Trump is undermined by a failure to deliver jobs.
10. Trump’s law-and-order agenda is bolstered by an international incident or terrorist attack.
Group IV: Things fall apart.
Here are what most of us would consider the worst-case scenarios — or at least the worst cases short of Trump starting a nuclear war.
11. Trump plunges America into outright authoritarianism.
12. Resistance to Trump from elsewhere in the government undermines his authority but prompts a constitutional crisis.
Group V: Trump Makes America Great Again.
By “Makes America Great Again,” I don’t merely mean that Trump is an effectual president, in the sense of becoming fairly popular or achieving most of his goals. I mean that he actually becomes a great president and is regarded as such by a broad range of historians. Intellectual humility demands that we consider this possibility. So how might it happen?
13. Trump becomes Governor Schwarzenegger.
14. Trump’s button-mashing works because the system really is broken.