Najslabši napovedovalec med FED predsedniki ne odstopa od svojega modela

It is quite an accomplishment to both be (a) the worst economic forecaster among your peers, and yet (b) engage in no public reflection and discussion of how and why you got the past wrong, and how you are changing your model of the economy in order to get it less wrong when you forecast in the future.

Charles Plosser has managed that accomplishment.

Those close to him in the WSJ rankings of Fed forecasting success–Bullard, Lacker, Kocherlakota, Williams, and Bernanke–have all discussed, sometimes at great length, what they got wrong, why they think they got it wrong, and what they think they have learned. Not Charles Plosser–at least, nowhere that I have seen. I have not even found any recognition by Charles Plosser that every single year he was President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia he did get it wrong, did misjudge the economy, and was recommending monetary policies that would be unduly and inappropriately restrictive. None.

Ranking Fed Forecasters The Wall Street Journal WSJ com

And so the honorable and intelligent Duncan Black descends further into insanity:

Duncan Black: “If It’s A Day Ending in ‘Y’ Charles Plosser wants the Fed to raise interest rates.

Vir: Brad DeLong

Aja, najboljša napovedovalka prihodnjih gospodarskih gibanj med regionalnimi predsedniki Fed je …  Janet Yellen, aktualna predsednica boarda Fed. Torej ima feeling za podatke in kaj se dejansko dogaja v gospodarstvu. Bo torej tudi uspela zadeti pravi trenutek, kdaj začeti dvigovati obrestno mero?

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