Konec sveta

Le nekaj dni pred grškimi volitvami je najbolj znani kritik (brezpogojne) globalizacije med ekonomisti, Dani Rodrik iz Harvarda, napisal kolumno o koncu sveta, kot ga poznamo. Njegov scenarij zadnjih korakov konca sveta je precej realističen in ne bistveno drugačen od tistega, kot bi ga napisal kak drug ekonomist. Zmaga Sirize v Grčiji bi za sabo potegnila domino efekt med šibkejšimi evropskimi državami, čemur bi nato na globalni ravni sledil efekt snežne kepe. Sledil bi tisti črni čas v 1930-tih letih s trgovinskimi in nato čisto tapravimi vojnami.

Over the next few years, the world economy slumps into what future historians will call the Second Great Depression. Unemployment rises to record-high levels. Governments without fiscal resources are left with little option but to respond in ways that will only exacerbate problems for other countries: trade protection and competitive exchange-rate depreciation. As countries sink into economic autarky, repeated global economic summits yield few results beyond empty promises of cooperation.

As in the Great Depression, the political consequences are more serious and hold longer-term significance. The eurozone’s collapse (and, for all practical purposes, that of the EU itself) forces a major realignment of European politics. France and Germany compete openly as alternative centers of influence vis-à-vis the smaller European states. Centrist parties pay the price for their support of the European integration project, and are repudiated in the polls by parties of the extreme right or extreme left. Nativist governments begin to kick out immigrants.

For nearby countries, Europe no longer shines as a beacon of democracy. The Arab Middle East takes a decisive turn towards authoritarian Islamic states. In Asia, economic strife between the US and China spills over into military conflict, with increasingly frequent naval clashes in the South China Sea threatening to erupt into a full-scale war.

In “glavni krivec”, da svet ni bil rešen, ko je bil še čas?

Many years later, Merkel, who has withdrawn from politics and become a recluse, is asked whether she thinks that she should have done anything differently during the euro crisis.  Unfortunately, her answer comes too late to change the course of history.

Jaz sem še vedno precejšen optimist. in to ne glede na izid grških volitev. Tudi Nemci ne morejo biti taki (sebični) tepci, da tega “konca sveta” ne bi imeli pred očmi.

In do takrat, ko bo Nemčija pristala na evroobveznice, poslušam REM v istoimenski pesmi It’s the end of the world as we know it.

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