Večina političnih analiz Petra Magyarja predstavlja kot človeka, ki bi lahko končal Orbanovo dobo. Paradoks madžarske politike pa je, da Magyar ne izziva Orbanove ideologije. Analiza programa stranke TISZA in njegovih javnih nastopov kaže, da so razlike med njima presenetljivo majhne. Ločujeta ju predvsem generacijska razlika in odnos do korupcije, medtem ko so njuna temeljna stališča glede nacionalizma, konservativizma, nacionalne suverenosti, migracij, energetske politike ter odnosa do Ukrajine in Rusije v veliki meri skladna. Magyar tako ne predstavlja ideološkega preloma z Orbanovim modelom, temveč prej njegovo politično prenovo brez korupcijskih bremen.

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Trumpova eskalacijsko-deseskalacija retorika je zelo povezana z njegovim prishološkim profilom. Ni pa v celoti iracionalna. V precekšnjem delu jo je mogoče razumeti kot strategijo tržnih manipulacij, da lahko z njim povezani špekulanti na podlagi notranjih informacij služijo stotine milijonov z borznimi transakcijami. Trump je vojno izkoristil za bogatenje njegovega kroga ljudi.

So, a couple of the boys have been texting me: “Why the hell would Trump drop the Hormuz blockade bomb on a Sunday? It’ll send oil screaming past $120, maybe $130 if the algos really panic. Makes zero sense if you actually want cheaper barrels.”

But it makes perfect sense. Beautiful, even.

See, Tokyo and Hong Kong are already humming by the time the East Coast is still nursing its coffee. Those futures pits—Dow, S&P, the whole equity complex, plus Brent and WTI on the screens—never really sleep. You’ve got fourteen, fifteen hours of runway before the New York bell. Plenty of time for the right hands to lean in: long the indices in Hong Kong, short the crude in Tokyo, riding the fear wave as the blockade tweet lights up every terminal from Singapore to Sydney.

Then, right on cue, before the U.S. opens, comes the pivot. Something about “there’s regime change in Tehran,” “we can do business,” “Talks were Good,” the usual art-of-the-deal baloney. Markets whip around like they’ve been Tasered. Oil gives back the spike, stocks rip higher. The boys in Asia unwind clean, pocket the spread.

A few hundred million, maybe more, conjured out of thin air on the back of one perfectly timed Sunday morning post. Not bad for a morning’s work. The Street’s been running these kinds of games for decades: information, timing, leverage. Just never quite so… presidential!!

Strinjam se s spodnjo argumentacijo in do kakšnega rezultata bi blokada vodila.

Regarding Trump’s threat/decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran, color me a skeptic.

1. Taking more oil off the market, particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf, will drive oil prices further up, and the paper price of oil will get closer to the actual price, which should be around $150 per barrel. A dramatic increase in inflation in the US will ensue. Avoiding this is precisely why Trump was stuck in a position where he had no escalatory options out of this conflict before the ceasefire. He still doesn’t.
2. Stopping tankers carrying Iranian oil wouldn’t just be an escalation vis-à-vis Iran, but also against the countries that are buying Iranian oil, which includes China, India, and other Asian countries. I doubt Trump is ready for that escalation, particularly given the upcoming summit in Beijing.
3. This is also true for punishing countries that have negotiated a toll with Iran for the Straits. That includes Pakistan, which hosted the negotiations.
4. The naval blockade escalation will make the closing of the Red Sea more likely by the Houthis. That would take another 12% of global oil flow off the market. We would now be looking at oil around $200 per barrel.

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Spodnji prizor je res heartbreaking in hkrati opogumljajoč. Pokaže, kako so Iranci, ki so jim vzeli eksistenco, ohranili človečnost in dobroto.

In to smo lahko videli v 40 dneh spopada med ZDA in Izraelom na eni in Iranom na drugi strani: Američani so vojno začeli z raketnim napadom na dekliško šolo, v katerem so ubili najmanj 170 deklic, Izraelci in Američani ciljno raketirali več kot 700 iranskih bolnišnic, šole in univerze; na drugi strani so Iranci ciljali zgolj vojaške cilje in kasneje, kot povračilo, nekatere infrastrukturne objekte; niti enkrat pa niso ciljali bolnišnic, šol in univerz.

To je ta razlika v civilizaciji. Razlika v človečnosti. Izrael je zlo in ZDA so postale enake.

Ob tej obsodbi ameriške agresije na Iran s strani (ameriškega) papeža Lea mi pade na misel prizor iz nove zaveze Svetega pisma, ko Jezus pride v jeruzalemski tempelj in zagleda trgovce, ki so iz njega naredili tržnico. Jezus je (kot pravi tekst) pograbil bič in izgnal trgovce, prevrnil mize menjalcev denarja in rekel: »Moja hiša naj se imenuje hiša molitve, vi pa ste iz nje naredili razbojniško jamo.« Ameriške administracije so, in Trump je zgolj zadnji vrh sprevrženosti, so iz sveta naredli razbojniški divji zahod.

Ključni problem te Trumpove “brilijantne” ideje ni samo to, da vojaška izvedba pomorske blokade iranskega naftnega terminala na otoku Kharg in vojaška zasedba Hormuške ožine tehnično (vojaško) ni možna. Pač pa v tem, da bi s pomorsko blokado Irana (da ne bi več mogel izvažati nafte) dobili dvojno blokado Hormuške ožine. Nekaj takšnega, kot če bi k eni ključavnici na vrata namestili še dodatno. Če Američani izvedejo pomorsko blokado Irana – denimo na “varni razdalji” okrog 1,000 km stran v Arabskem morju -, pač skozi Hormuz ne bo prišla niti ena ladja, Ne z iransko in ne z arabsko nafto. Ne bo LNG, ne bo gnojil, ne bo žvepla, ne bo helija, ne bo polimerov, ne bo ničesar.

S pomorsko blokado Irana bodo Američani zgolj dvojno zaklenili Hormuška vrata. Moraš res biti zelo stabilni genij, da prideš na takšno idejo.

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Trump is sharing articles floating a US naval blockade of Iran, the “Venezuela playbook,” after talks fail. Here’s what that would actually look like.

The idea is the US Navy takes control of the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island strangling Iran’s economy while cutting China and India off from their key oil source simultaneously.

The problem: Iran is not Venezuela.

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Štiri slike o pogovorih med ZDA in Iranom v Islamabadu. Jasno je, da pogovori niso mogli biti uspešni, kajti ameriška zahteva, da Iran ne bo več bogatil urana ali izgradil jedrske bombe, je preprosto passe. Ta vlak je odpeljal 28. februarja. 27. februarja je Iran na to še pristajal. Nato pa sta ZDA in Izrael sredi pogajanj, kjer je Iran pristal prav na tak dogovor, napadla Iran. Pomorila njegovo vodstvo in dekliško šolo v Minabu.

Iran preprosto tega ne more več dovoliti. In edino učinkovito orožje proti temu je, da ima jedrski arzenal. Drugo učinkovito orožje je nadzor nad Hormuško ožino, vendar to “orožje” deluje počasi (prek pristiska na svetovno gospodarstvo) in ne preprečuje napada na Iran.

(Mimogrede, omejitev bogatenja urana je bil del dogovora med ZDA in Iranom, ki ga je diosegel Obama leta 2015, nakar ga je Trump 3 leta kasneje enostransko odpravil. V to stanje se ni mogoče več vrniti. Nič več po dveh ameriško – izraelskih napadih na Iran in po iranski zmagi v tej vojni.

Netanyahu is openly threatening Spain:

“You are about to pay the price for this. Never forget the power outages and mysterious train accidents that happened right after Spain stood against Israel.”

What does this mean? 

He’s saying they’re going to carry out terrorist attacks within Spain. 

The world should take note of this.

And Spain’s response: 

“We’re not smearing you, we’re defining you: You are a genocidal and criminal regime. All of you will appear before the International Criminal Court.”

Ključna determinanta  v vsakih pogajanjih je pogajalska moč. To determinira veliko večino končnega izida. Pogajalske veščine so pomembna komponenta, vendar za uravnavanje fines, toda smer izida določa pogajalska moč. In Američani tokrat nimajo dobrih kart.

The Americans and the Iranians are now engaged in armed bargaining where the outside options of both sides determine their bargaining power.

Both sides now know that if Iran can be disarmed, the US has the upper hand; if it cannot, Iran does. The WSJ reported today that Iran’s missile arsenal is vastly larger than previously believed. The timing could hardly have come at a better time for Iran.

They have claimed that they have an inventory of 15,000 ballistic missiles and 45,000 drones. The Israelis claim that Iran has 1,000 MRBMs left, along with thousands of SRBMs (4,000-6,000?). JINSA reports that Iran has fired about 2,200 ballistic missiles.

The Americans concede that we’re at best half way done with the job (assuming constant rates of interception and reconstitution). Meanwhile, the US magazine depth of standoff munitions is also half gone.

We know that the Iranians have reserved their heavier and more powerful missiles for use after they had depleted the interceptor inventories. Meanwhile, the interceptor inventories are practically out in Israel and the GCC states.

So, we’re looking at Iran being in a better position to draw blood if hostilities resume. Of the US and its allies running out of interceptors and magazine depth sooner than the Iranians run out of arrows.

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