Zelo dober pregleden članek Larsa P. Sylla o uporabi predpostavke racionalnih pričakovanj v makroekonomiji in o njeni napačnosti v realnem svetu ter problemu tega, da so ekonomisti zaljubljeni v traktabilnost matematičnih izpeljav, čeprav je osnova, na kateri gradijo, absolutno gnila in napačna. Larpurlartizem brez kakršnekoli uporabne vrednosti.

The concept of rational expectations was first developed by John Muth (1961) and later applied to macroeconomics by Robert Lucas (1972). In this way the concept of uncertainty as developed by Keynes (1921) and Knight (1921) was turned into a concept of quantifiable risk in the hands of neoclassical economics.

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Many central banks rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models – known as DSGEs to cognoscenti. This column […] argues that the models’ mathematical basis fails when crises shift the underlying distributions of shocks. Specifically, the linchpin ‘law of iterated expectations’ fails, so economic analyses involving conditional expectations and inter-temporal derivations also fail. Like a fire station that automatically burns down whenever a big fire starts, DSGEs become unreliable when they are most needed.

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Robert Skidelsky o nemškem egoizmu, o tem, zakaj Nemčija za razliko od Kitajske noče znižati zunanjetrgovinskega presežka in rešiti evro območja pred recesijo in zakaj samo Draghijevo “metanje denarja iz helikopterja” lahko še drži evro območje nad vodo. Ampak nič več kot to. Nadaljujte z branjem→

Robert Lucas: Modern Macroeconomics: “I was convinced by Friedman and Schwartz…

…that the 1929-33 down turn was induced by monetary factors (declined is money and velocity both) I concluded that a good starting point for theory would be the working hypothesis that all depressions are mainly monetary in origin…. As I have written elsewhere, I now believe that the evidence on post-war recessions (up to but not including the one we are now in) overwhelmingly supports the dominant importance of real shocks…

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Črt Kostevc

Za mnoge ni bilo posebno presenečenje, ko je Evropsko sodišče za človekove pravice odločilo v prid varčevalcev nekdanje Ljubljanske banke iz BiH in hkrati sprožilo zelo verjetno kaskado nadaljnih vlaganj podobnih zahtevkov s strani preostalih skupin varčevalcev predvsem na Hrvaškem in BiH. Kaže, da je presenečena zgolj slovenska vlada. Vračilo glavnice in natečenih obresti za slabo četrtino stoletja bo zamajalo terminski načrt slovenske fiskalne ozdravitve. Dobrega pol leta po tem, ko se je rodila Družba za upravljanje terjatev bank in le dva meseca potem, ko je bil prenešen prvi večji sveženj bančnih tertjatev nanjo, nas čaka nov fiskalni knockdown. *
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Karl Polanyi’s The Great Transformation is certainly the right place to start in thinking about “neoliberalism” and its global spread. But you are right to notice and do need to keep thinking that Polanyi is talking about pre-World War II classical liberalism, and that modern post-1980 neoliberalism is somewhat different.

First, as I, at least, see it, there are three strands of thought that together make up the current of ideas and policies that people call “neoliberalism”:

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• Five myths about the gender pay gap – The Washington Post
• The Evidence Is In: Patent Trolls Do Hurt Innovation – James Bessen
• Polanyi, Classical Liberalism, and Varieties of “Neoliberalism” – Brad DeLong
• CEO Pay and Stock Performance correlation Pretty Random – Businessweek
• A Quick Check-in on the Wage Front – Jared Bernstein
• Are the Rich Coldhearted? – NYTimes.com
• How not to introduce official e-money? – FT Alphaville
• The Will to Make Legible – Acemoglu and Robinson
• Ezra Klein Asks the Wrong Question – Paul Krugman
• Quick Thoughts on Ryan’s Poverty Plan – Rortybomb
• The inequality snowball effect – The Washington Post
• Financial stability and monetary policy – vox
• On State Unemployment Rates, It’s Analyst Beware – NYTimes.com
• Justin Wolfers False Symmetry on Unemployment Benefits – Beat the Press
• The continuum from monetary to fiscal – Nick Rowe

Težka tema za poletje, ampak ena izmed ključnih tem za pravilno dojemanje makroekonomije. Za tiste, ki niste sledili dosedanjim postom o tej temi na tem ali ostalih blogih: sredi 1970. let je Robert Lucas razvil teorijo racionalnih pričakovanj, na podlagi katere je prišlo do t.i. makroekonomske revolucije, torej do nastanka t.i. mikrofundiranih makroekonomskih modelov, ki temeljijo na optimizacijskem obnašanju enega samega popolnoma racionalnega reprezentativnega posameznika. In to je osnova za dinamične stohastične modele splošnega ravnotežja (DSGE), ki jih uporabljajo centralne banke za napovedi makro agregatov. To modeli so seveda grdo udarili mimo pri napovedih v času velikih eksogenih šokov, kot je bila sedanja kriza.

Spodaj je izsek iz intervjuja z nobelovcem Jamesom Heckmanom, prav tako iz Chicago University, ki pravi, da sta tako on kot Milton Friedman opozarjala, da so nekateri teorijo racionalnih pričakovanj vzeli preveč resno, kar je privedlo do velikega razkoraka med teorijo in dejstvi (podatki). Povzeto po ekonomskem zgodovinarju Larsu P. Syllu: Nadaljujte z branjem→

Why should we care about Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu?

Because  Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu ultimately explains why New Classical, Real Business Cycles, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) and “New Keynesian” microfounded macromodels are such bad substitutes for real macroeconomic analysis! Nadaljujte z branjem→