Kaj lahko spremenijo F-16?

Pričakovati čudeže od nekaj zastarelih in inferiornih letal z doletom 500 km, brez ukrajinskih vzletišč in brez zračnih tankerjev bi bilo precej naivno. Ampak tukaj gre za PR učinke. …dokler jih Rusi ne sklatijo, kot so v staro železje spremenili čudežne Himarse in Patriote. Eden izmed dobrih zapisov o specifiki F-16 je spodaj.

Je morda kdo pomislil na začetek mirovnih pogovorov? Ali pa mora za ameriške interese prej umreti še zadnjih nekaj deset tisoč ukrajinskih vojakov, ki so še ostali od začetnih +300 tisoč vojakov?

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A few days ago U.S. President Joe Biden announced the training of Ukrainian pilots for the F-16 multirole fighter aircraft:

President Joe Biden told G7 leaders on Friday that the US would join in efforts to train Ukraine’s pilots on fourth generation fighter jets including the F-16s, a senior administration official told CNN on Friday.

This has obviously been in the planning for some time. The timing of the announcement at the G7 summit was simply chosen to maximize the propaganda value for Biden.

The process we have seen has repeated itself again and again. As pro-Ukrainian blogger (with no military knowledge) describes it:

This has clearly become a proxy war between Russia and NATO, supercharging the political considerations inherent to any war. Ukraine’s goal is to wheedle as much military aid as humanly possibly out of NATO, especially the United States. The United States’ goal is more complex: give enough aid to push Russia back, but not so much that its proxy war with Russia escalates into an actual one.This dynamic has created a Hunger Games scenario where Ukraine is constantly playing to the cameras to cajole extra gifts from the wealthy sponsors who watch its every move over the internet in real time. I had decided against using this analogy until I saw Ukrainians themselves using it. There is something grotesque and sobering about finding yourself in this position, and writing about it. But it is what it is.

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Novi BRICS

South Africa reported that applications for joining the BRICS are received almost weekly. According to Anil Suklal, Ambassador-at-Large for Asia and BRICS at the South African Foreign Ministry, we are talking about 30 countries. At the moment, BRICS consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. News portal NewZimbabwe reported last week, citing internal BRICS documents, that joining the group is now sought by:New BRICS

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Greece: another chapter

Po končanju waterboardinga Grčije s strani trojke je relativni napredek velik, toda Grčija je danes še vedno 20% pod ravnijo pred začetkom finančne krize:

“Nevertheless, this relative improvement in the economy is a key reason why the ND is likely to win. But the emphasis is on relative. The recent fast GDP growth since COVID is coming from a really low level of GDP. The Greek economy remains still some 20% smaller than before the Great Recession and euro debt crisis. And the recent investment rise is mostly in unproductive real estate investment. “

michael roberts's avatarMichael Roberts Blog

Greece has a general election today. The conservative New Democracy party under Kyriakos Mitsotakis currently forms the government, having defeated the leftist Syriza party under Alexia Tsipras in the 2019 election. In 2019, New Democracy took 39% of the vote to Syriza’s 32%. When Syriza took power in 2015 at the height of the euro debt crisis, Syriza polled 35% to ND’s 28%. Disillusionment with Syriza among previous strong working-class support was enough for the ND to gain a substantial victory in 2019. The former social democrat party PASOK, which had adopted neo-liberal policies during the debt crisis, polled only 10% and the Communists (who called for leaving the EU) fell to just 5%.

Although voting is formally compulsory, turnout was only 57% in 2019. Indeed, voter turnout has steadily fallen since Greece joined the EU in the early 1980s, but it did rise during the euro debt crisis between…

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Kako zapreti 3-kratni zaostanek v znanosti v zgolj 7. letih?

Kitajska je je bila leta 2015 na 3-krat nižji ravni kot ZDA glede prispevka k “high quality” znanosti (po metriki najbolj ugledne znanstvene revije Nature), leta 2022 avtorji iz kitajskih raziskovalnih inštitucij po prispevku k znanosti prehitele kolege iz ameriških raziskovalnih inštitucij.

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G7: where is that recession?

michael roberts's avatarMichael Roberts Blog

The G7 leaders meet this weekend in Hiroshima, Japan, the site of the first atomic bomb holocaust dropped by American bombers on the city in August 1945, leading to the deaths of at least 100,000 citizens.  But the G7 leaders’ main deliberations will not be about that, but instead on how to ‘contain’ China and ‘protect’ Taiwan from Chinese ‘aggression’ through further militarization of the island as a thorn in the side of Chinese leaders.  It’s a form of what the British police call ‘kettling’, namely to surround and contain demonstrators in public protests.  It is no accident that, with the North American Treaty Organisation (NATO) is now expanding its role into Asia, that Ukrainian leader Zelensky has been invited to address the G7 leaders.  As a counter, the Chinese are holding a conference of central Asian states in Xian. Such are the machinations of the intensifying geo-political conflict. 

But…

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Ameriški “iraški” načrt za Ukrajino: Nafta in plin za ameriška podjetja ter korupcija kot mazivo

Kot pravijo, “true American interests are all about oil and arms“. Če ste že pozabili Irak, Libijo in Sirijo, Ukrajinski primer se odvija prav zdaj pred našimi očmi:

As the war in Ukraine drags on, the government is selling off state assets in a big privatization spree.

US fossil fuel corporations like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Halliburton are participating in discussions to take over the Eastern European nation’s oil and gas industry, as Kiev pushes to increase production to replace Russian energy exports.

This comes soon after Ukraine’s Western-backed leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, sent a friendly video message to a US corporate lobby group, thanking companies like BlackRock, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Starlink, and promising “big business” for others.

In September, Zelensky also symbolically opened the New York Stock Exchange, announcing that his country is “open for business”, offering more than $400 billion in “public-private partnerships, privatization, and private ventures” for US companies.

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The Unpopular Truth about Electricity & Future of Energy

Odlično predavanje Larsa Schernikaua, ki bi ga morali pogledati vsi, da bi sploh razumeli, kaj pomeni, da bo našo prihodnost poganjala elektrika. Da bi razumeli napačne predpostavke in zavajujoče LCOE izračune, na katerih je zgrajen balon “zelenega prehoda”. Toliko blefa in zavajanja, kot ga je v “električnem zelenem balonu”, težko najdete. Dobro je, da to slišite od strokovnjaka na tem področju.

Ko se Krugman razjezi na svoje: How Biden blew it on debt

Vsaka država je nesrečna na svoj način in vsaka država ima svoje norce. Le da se z nesrečniki in norci velikih držav, hočeš nočeš, mora ukvarjati ves svet. No, v tem ameriškem šovu med demokrati in republikanci glede meje zadolžitve se zdi, da sta Biden in Yellenova slabo odigrala svoji vlogi.

As soon as Republicans took control of the House last November, it was obvious that they would try to take the economy hostage by refusing to raise the federal debt limit. After all, that’s what they did in 2011 — and hard as it may be to believe, the Tea Party Republicans were sober and sane compared to the MAGA crew. So it was also obvious that the Biden administration needed a strategy to head off the looming crisis.

More and more, however, it looks as if there never was a strategy beyond wishful thinking. I hope that I’m wrong about this — that President Biden will, at the last minute, unveil an effective counter to G.O.P. blackmail. He may even be forced to do so, as I’ll explain in a bit. But right now I have a sick feeling about all of this. What were they thinking? How can they have been caught so off-guard by something that everyone who’s paying attention saw coming?

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Robert Lucas: the rationality of capitalism

Prispevek Roberta Lucasa (pogostega “infamous gosta” na tem blogu) k ekonomski teoriji:

“Lucas was widely acclaimed because he furthered mainstream theory that markets could work without crises or distortions as long as individuals has sufficient information to make ‘rational decisions’ on their own interests. So the reality of crises and inequalities was due not to capitalist markets but to ‘irrational’ decisions by authorities or unions interfering with markets.

In particular, Lucas attacked the Keynesian ‘aggregate demand’ theory of economies, namely the Keynesian conclusion that total demand could fall below total supply in an economy, leading to periods of high unemployment. Lucas argued that if governments intervened to increase money supply or increase spending to boost aggregate demand, they would distort the ‘rational expectations’ of individuals and only make things worse.”

Njegov vrh triumfa ter kako je končala njegova napoved:

“Given his victory over the Keynesians; given the apparent success of the advanced capitalist economies in the 1990s; and given the neoliberal policies of reduced government ‘interference’ and ‘independent’ central banks, Lucas was confident that harmonious capitalist development was here to stay. In 2003, he made the now infamous statement that “macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded: Its central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes, and has in fact been solved for many decades.” As Romer remarked it “Using the worldwide loss of output as a metric, the financial crisis of 2008-9 shows that Lucas’s prediction is far more serious failure than the prediction that the Keynesian models got wrong.””

Ampak o mrtvih vse dobro.

michael roberts's avatarMichael Roberts Blog

Robert Lucas has died at the age of 85.  Lucas was a leading mainstream neoclassical economist at the University of Chicago – the bastion of neoclassical equilibrium economic theory.  In 1995, Lucas received a ‘Nobel prize’ for his theory of ‘rational expectations’.  He was regarded by Greg Mankiw, the author of the main mainstream economics textbook used in universities, as “the most influential macroeconomist of the last quarter of the 20th century.”

It is an irony, given the body of his work, that when Lucas started studying economics, he considered himself a “quasi-Marxist” because he reckoned that it was the economic foundation of society that was the driver of history, not the ideas of individuals.  The irony is that his main contribution to mainstream economics was eventually to present a theory that economic change was driven by the ‘rational’ action of ‘agents’ i.e, individuals as consumers.

What is ‘rational expectations’…

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