Trump ni edini predsednik, ki se mu dogaja, da njegova administracija počne stvari mimo njega, brez njegove vednosti in v nasprotju z njegovimi javnimi izjavami. Se mu pa to dogaja zelo pogosto, vedno bolj. Kar seveda pomeni, da – dodatno k volatilnosti njegovih izjav – postaja mednarodno povsem nekredibilen voditelj. Predsednik države, katerega beseda ne velja nič in predsednik, s katerim se nima smisla niti pogovarjati, ker njegova beseda ne velja nič.

Ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar reminds us of subtle maneuvers by deep state actors to sabotage presidential policies.

When a U.S. spy plane was shot down over the Soviet Union President Dwight Eisenhower had not be informed about its real mission. The CIA claimed that it had been a weather plane that went off course after its pilot was incapacitated. The president repeated that tale.

The Soviets then published that the wreckage of the U-2 spy plane had been recovered and the pilot captured alive. The Soviets were miffed of being lied to and Eisenhower’s attempt of detente with them failed.

Bhadrakumar sees a parallel in the recent Ukrainian drone attacks on strategic bomber on several Russian air field.

President Trump, in a call with the Russian president Putin, claimed that the U.S. had had no knowledge of the attack. That is, as several former CIA members confirm, implausible. The operation had been the making for 18 month which means that it had been initiated under President Biden. U.S. and/or British intelligence was certainly involved in designating the targets.

It seem that Trump, like Eisenhower before him, was not informed and thus embarrassed himself.

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Že dolgo nisem bral tako dobrega komentarja v sicer sinofobnem, rusofobnem, pro-vojnem in neskončno pro-izraelskem The Economistu. Če povzamem – Evropejci, svet je šel v tri krasne, prebivalstvo nam upada, že dolgo nas ne bremeni več, da ne znamo doseči omembe vredne gospodarske rasti in že zdavnaj smo se sprijaznili, da ne bomo globalna velesila. Ampak, hej, kaj boste počeli čez vikend? In če težave ne moremo rešiti do junija, lahko počaka na september, ko se vrnemo z morja.

Je nekaj simpatičnega v tem našem odnosu do sedanjosti in prihodnosti, mar ne? Zakaj bi se sekirali zaradi stvari, ki jih ne poznamo ali jim nismo kos ali pa ki bi zahtevale preveč matranja?

The world is going to hell, meaningful economic growth is a long-forgotten phenomenon, and by the way what are your plans for summer? That, roughly, is the vibe in Europe these days. To outsiders it feels hopelessly self-indulgent. Europeans have plenty that ought to keep them up at night. Beyond war in Ukraine and Trumpism in America, its big companies are also-rans and the continent’s population is shrinking for the first time since the plague seven centuries ago. Panic, moi? Whatever the issue, if it cannot be dealt with in the next few weeks it will have to wait for la rentrée in September.

Europeans know the global race for economic supremacy is lost. But the continent’s business model endures: it is a third poorer than America, works a third less, and is a lot more tanned at the end of August. 

Enjoy the weekend. Most Europeans will also enjoy Monday off, by the way.

Vir: The Economist

V času energetske krize so se cene plina za poslovne odjemalce povišale za 100 % (manjši odjemalci) do 150 % (največji odjemalci) glede na leto 2019. Za največje industrijske odjemalce plina so bile cene plina konec leta 2024 še vedno za 75 % višje kot leta 2019. Za manjše odjemalce so cene še za 15 % do 50 % višje kot za največje odjemalce in za 60 % višje kot leta 2019.

Slika 1: Cene zemeljskega plina v industriji v Sloveniji glede na velikost odjema, z vsemi dajatvami (EUR/kWh)

Vir: SURS.

V času energetske krize so se cene električne energije za poslovne odjemalce povišale za 140 % (manjši odjemalci) do 235 % (največji odjemalci) glede na leto 2019. Leta 2024 so bile za največje industrijske odjemalce cene elektrike še vedno za 220 % višje kot leta 2019. Za manjše odjemalce so cene še za 20 % do 30 % višje kot za največje odjemalce in za 90 do 170 % višje kot leta 2019.

Slika 2: Cene električne energije v industriji v Sloveniji glede na velikost odjema, z vsemi dajatvami (EUR/kWh)

Vir: SURS.

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Dober komentar v Washington Postu: Velesila, ki se odpove financiranju znanosti, ki ji je omogočila tehnološki, gospodarski in vojaški vzpon, se je odločila za samomor. Kitajska je seveda povsem nasproten primer od trumpovske Amerike. Toda lekcija je aktualna tudi za Slovenijo. Brez povečanega financiranja znanosti, raziskav in spodbujanja tehnološkega sektorja se nikoli ne bomo prebili med razvojno propulzivne države. Vedno bomo le drugo- ali tretje-razredni dobavitelji komponent za druge. Pa še to le v primeru, če kitajska podjetja ne bodo povsem izrinila nemških, za katera delajo naši dobavitelji. In ta stava je zelo tvegana.

But the planned spectacle is laughably hollow. Even as the president wants to showcase U.S. military power, he is doing grave and possibly irreparable damage to the real sources of U.S. strength, including its long-term investment in scientific research. Trump is declaring war on science, and the casualty will be the U.S. economy.

Since the 1940s, when the University of Chicago, Columbia University and the University of California played a central role in the Manhattan Project, the engine driving U.S. economic and military competitiveness has been federal support of research universities. That partnership has produced most of the key inventions of the information age, including the internet, GPS, smartphones and artificial intelligence.

Federal support of university research has also made possible the success of the United States’ world-leading biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries. Advances enabled by federal support include magnetic resonance imaging, the Human Genome Project, LASIK surgery, weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic, and drugs that have saved countless AIDS and covid-19 patients.

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Kopičenje poraza za porazom sistema “liberalne demokracije” je privedlo do psihološkega zloma, notranje dislokacije Zahoda. To zdaj vodi v neracionalna dejanja in iskanje zatočišča v pobožnih željah.

Spodaj je odlično razmišljanje Moon of Alabama o zlomu Zahoda, ki temelji na predavanju Emmanuela Todda. Dobra teza tega predavanja je, da je nekdanja Sovjetska zveza oziroma njena naslednica Rusija po koncu hladne vojne tako zelo kolapsnila ne samo zaradi kolapsa gospodarskega sistema, pač pa zaradi kolapsa ideologije (Todd to imenuje “religija”). Ideologija je vezivo vsakega sistema, brez ideologije se sistemi razkrojijo. In to Todd zdaj napoveduje Zahodu – po gospodarskem porazu proti Kitajski in po neštetih porazih liberalne demokracije (liberalne hegemonije) v mednarodnih odnosih se zahodni sistem sesuva, ker se sesuva tudi njegova ideologija. Trans liberalne vrednote hedonističnih individualistov niso ideologija, ki bi držala skupaj družbo. Vrednote družine, tradicije, nacije in država pač.

In 1976 the French anthropologist Emmanuel Todd predicted the down fall of the Soviet Union. In After The Empire, first published in French in 2001, he predicted the (relative) decline of the United States. 

In his latest (and last) book, La Défaite de l’Occident (The Defeat of the West), he laments the West’s inability to distinguish facts from wishes, as seen in its behavior during the war in Ukraine. Nihilism, a lack of values and of acceptance of reality, has infested western thinking:

Trans ideology is therefore, in my opinion, one of the flags of this nihilism that now defines the West, this drive to destroy not just things and people but reality.

Todd recently opened a substack where he is posting speeches and talks he has given.

Two of those, a recent talk given in Russia (in French) and one given in Hungary (in English) make (mostly) similar points.

The downfall of the Soviet Union led to deep psychological and societal dislocations in Russia. The defeat of the West, or ‘liberal democracy’,  is leading to similar consequences in Western societies.

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Res težka dilema Izraela: če bi pustili odpravi Grete Thunberg in Liama Cunninghaama, da pripelje po morju hrano do Gaze, bi se lahko zgodil precedens, da bi Palestinci, ki jih je Izrael obsodil na smrt z bombardiranjem, streljanjem in stradanjem, dobili hrano. Ko je nekdo na takšnem bibličnem poslanstvu, kot je Izrael danes, si takšen precedens težko privošči. Ali pa to njegovemu vodstvu vsaj ne da spati – kakšno minuto…

Morda bi izraelsko vodstvo moralo za nasvet vprašati Boruta Pahorja. Načelnega in modrega politika

Life as a genocidal settler-colony can be hard.

You just want to quietly go about your day, exterminating the natives to fulfil your Biblical prophecy of Disney Land Gaza, but you keep running into problems like “international law” and “public opinion”.

Apparently, a majority of the international public now hates the world’s only murderous ethno-state – and no one is clear why such antisemitism is out of control. Must be Tiktok, I guess.

Israel was close to clearing the skeletal population out of Gaza when they heard something truly terrifying is on its way. No, not the asteroid at the edge of the solar system that may or may not be an earthbound alien mothership! I’m talking about something much scarier: international wanted terrorist Greta Thunberg and her second-in-command Liam Cunningham, a fearsome warrior who was forged in the fires of Westeros. The pair are travelling aboard a flotilla of… humanitarian aid ships.

As you can imagine, the 4″10 autistic girl and her loyal assistant strike fear into the heart of every IDF soldier. The situation could only be scarier if Ms Rachel was aboard one of those vessels, but that doesn’t bear thinking about.

In a sane world, Israel would have every right to protect itself from humanitarian aid ships that were bound for another country. Israeli intelligence shows the so-called “Freedom Flotilla” is planning to arm Palestinians with food, and apparently, Israel is expected to sit back and do nothing. Thankfully, our rulers are staying quiet and preparing to blame Greta if things get out of hand. Whether the public and the ICC judges accept their shit is another matter..

Israeli drone operatives are in a difficult position: if they do what they want to the Freedom Flotilla, they could find themselves charged with “war crimes”, and if they allow the boats to get through, it will set the precedent that Palestinians eat. As you can imagine, Israeli strategists are in panic mode, trying to figure out the best way forward.

In the past, Israel’s actions have ranged from bombing aid vessels, to boarding them and gunning everyone down, to showing restraint and strip searching the entire crew. You can’t miss an opportunity to needlessly strip search people, can you? What do you think they are? The world’s most moral army?

Clearly, the only reasonable course of action is for the Freedom Flotilla to turn around and let Israel continue with the aid distribution effort alone.

Bine Kordež

Pred dnevi smo lahko v Delu prebrali zanimiv članek o dediščinah (tekst je bil povzet po časopisu The Economist). Vrednost dediščin se v zadnjih letih v vseh državah povečuje in letni obseg dediščin že presega 10 % BDP posameznih držav. Pri tem je zanimivo, da kljub veliki vrednosti teh prenosov premoženja, državni statistični uradi ne objavljajo skoraj nobenih podatkov o dediščinah in omenjene ocene temeljijo samo na raznih analizah raziskovalcev tega področja.

Značilno je tudi, da so bili v začetku 20. stoletja prihodki iz davkov na dediščino pomemben del celotnega davčnega priliva na primer v ZDA in Veliki Britaniji. Kasneje pa se je politika obrnila proti tem davkom in njihov pomen za javne finance je vse nižji. Večina držav davka na dediščino sploh nima, v podrobnejših poročilih evropskega statističnega urada pa zasledimo, da s tem davki še največ zbere Francija (0,6 % BDP v 2019) in Nemčija (0,2 %), Avstrija, Švedska in Češka pa na primer praktično nič.

Tudi za Slovenijo v poročilih državnega statističnega urada (SURS) o obsegu dediščin ne boste o tem našli nobenega podatka, prav tako tudi ne na spletu. Ker gre za zelo velike zneske, je tudi za našo državo zanimivo oceniti letne vrednosti podedovanega premoženja in njihov pomen za dohodke državljanov. Ker kot rečeno, kakih uradnih podatkov nimamo, vrednost lahko samo ocenjujemo na osnovi različnega nabora podatkov. V nadaljevanju so predstavljene sicer zelo grobe ocene, a za namene prikaza te tematike, zbrani podatki zadoščajo.

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Nisem prepričan, da bo do resnejših sankcij proti Izraelu kdaj res prišlo, kajti moč finančnega sektorja, ki ga obvladuje kapitalska elita, ki se identificira kot židovsjega porekla, je gromozansko velika. Je močnejša od moči ZDA in katerekoli države z izjemo Kitajske. Je pa dobro, da so se tudi v največjih medijih začeli glede tega opredeljevati. Financial Times je bil prvi glede obsodbe izraelskega genocida nad Palestinci, temu valu se je kasneje pridružilo več velikih medijev. In Financial Times je spet prvi, ki javno diskutira o nujnosti sankcij proti Izraelu in kje bi Izrael najbolj bolelo. Izrael bi najbolj bolele sankcije glede prepovedi trgovanja, saj je polovično odvisen od uvoza iz držav EU.

Torej, kdaj bomo v Evropskem svetu imeli diskusijo o tem?

Europe’s patience with Benjamin Netanyahu’s war in Gaza and Israeli settlers’ aggression in the occupied West Bank may finally be running out.

In the past few weeks, EU foreign ministers have triggered a review of Israel’s association agreement with the bloc, Britain has halted trade talks, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund blacklisted an Israeli company for facilitating energy deliveries to West Bank settlements, and the leaders of France, the UK and Canada threatened to put sanctions on the country. Even Germany, Israel’s most stalwart backer in Europe, is criticising the country’s conduct.

Too little too late, some will say. And they will point to how fast the west imposed sanctions on Russia, in meaningful and unprecedented ways, after Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and put the difference down to hypocrisy.

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