Naslov je vzet iz naslova novega članka Thomasa Pikettyja in Gastona Nievasa, ki ga komentiram v sosednjem postu. Spodaj je daljši povzetek ugotovitev. Dober je opis, kako so zahodne države v 19. stoletju z rentami izropale države globalnega juga, kako so po prvi svetovni vojni te rente nenadoma usahnile in kako bi relativno majhna sprememba pogojev menjave v korist držav globalnega juga tem državam pomagala pri razvoju in razvojnem dohitevanju zahodnih držav. Vendar do slednjega ni prišlo.

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Are today’s trade and current account imbalances unique in history? Are international economic relations characterized by self-correcting market mechanisms, or by persistent imbalances and power relations between nations? What does this mean for collective regulation and the organization of the international monetary system and global trade rules?

In a new study, Gastón Nievas and Thomas Piketty examine patterns of global imbalances, current account surplus/deficit and net foreign wealth accumulation over more than two centuries. They also present “counterfactual simulations” exploring how these dynamics might have evolved under alternative trade and monetary regimes.

The study draws on a new database wbop.world tracking global trade flows and the balance of payments (goods, services, income, and transfers) across 57 core territories (48 main countries + 9 residual regions) from 1800 to 2025.

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Na vse ameriške protekcionistične ukrepe (od prepovedi izvoza tehnoloških izdelkov in čipov, črne liste kitajskih podjetij, …, do astronomskih carin na kitajske izdelke) je Kitajska reagirala zgolj z dvema – z recipročnimi carinami in s prepovedjo izvoza mineralov redke zemlje. Magneti iz slednjih so ključna sestavina vseh tehnoloških izdelkov in avtomobilov (elektro motorji itd.). In Kitajski je s tem uspelo zaustaviti ameriško avtomobilsko industrijo in proizvodnjo elektronskih naprav. Bolj kot je Trump navijal carine in tehnološke prepovedi, bolj je Kitajska vztrajala pri začetnem izhodišču, da je pogoj za pogovore, da ZDA odpravijo vse nove ovire. Trumpu na koncu ni preostalo nič drugega, kot da svoje podrejene pooblasti, da v pogajanjih ponudijo odpravo tehnoloških omejitev.

Kitajska ima dobre karte, Trump pač ne. Kljub temu, da se je maja kitajski izvoz v ZDA zmanjšal za tretjino (34 %), pa se je agregatni kitajski izvoz povečal za 4.8 % in kitajski mesečni izvozni presežek se je povzpel na rekordnih 100 milijard $. Slednje pomeni potencialno nov letni rekord Kitajske v trgovinskem presežku (lani je znašal 1,000 milijard $).

In Kitajski ni treba pristati na nobena ameriška izsiljevanja ali obljube. Kajti Xi Jinping lahko v kateremkoli trenutku ugasne ameriško industrijo.

Namesto ene je treba organizirati stotine, tisoče plovil z uglednimi osebnostmi na njih, ki se jih izraelski režim ne bo upal pobiti. Na neki točki izraelski vojski ne bo uspelo ustaviti tega vala, in prebilo se bo eno, nato dve, nato deset plovil… In neki točki bo izraelska blokada Gaze padla. In ob humanitarni pomoči prebivalcem Gaze bo padel tudi izraelski apartheid režim nad Gazo in Zahodnim bregom.

To be clear, the only reason the *** Zionist Israeli *** did not kill Greta Thunberg, Rima Hassan and the others is because of the global attention that was on the Madleen Gaza freedom flotilla. This is why their pathetic propaganda is focused on trying to mock it as a “celeb selfie yacht”, because they want the next ones to have less prominent people on them so they can kill them with full impunity.

The very fact that they did not dare do to them what they did to Rachel Corrie, Shireen Abu Akleh, Tom Hurndall and so many others with Western citizenship proves that the model of deterrence adopted by the freedom flotilla movement works.

And now it must be replicated a hundred, a thousand times over, with freedom convoys travelling from sea and land and having prominent people on board of them, spread out and dispersed. There is already a land convoy under way toward Rafah.

They will not dare touch you at the borders on land and on route on sea, at most they will kidnap you. But remember, they killed those on the last flotilla. They will have to expend massive resources trying to stop you all, and one of you will eventually get through, and then two, and then three, then ten, twenty, fifty, and the genocidal decades-long siege is broken.

They are afraid now, it is the time to begin a mass flotilla convoy movement to finally break through the genocidal blockade and free Gaza, and free Palestine!

Vir

Izjave spodnjega tipa, da je Rusija glede velikosti gospodarstva manjša od Španije in Portugalske, niso samo faktično nepravilne, ampak tudi nevarne zaradi podcenjevanja dejanske moči držav

Rusija je po tržnem tečaju naspram dolarju leta 2023 sicer res imela enak nominalni BDP kot skupaj Španija in Portugalska (1.900 milijard $), vendar je način primerjave napačen in zavajujoč glede implikacij. V spodnjem grafu je primerjava BDP držav po metodologiji tržnih tečajev (nominalni BDP) in metodologiji paritete kupne moči (PPP). Po prvi Rusija glede velikosti ne bi bila v prvi deseterici držav, po drugi je četrta gospodarsko najmočnejša država na svetu, večja od Japonske in Nemčije. V čem je bistvo problema primerjav?

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Trump ni edini predsednik, ki se mu dogaja, da njegova administracija počne stvari mimo njega, brez njegove vednosti in v nasprotju z njegovimi javnimi izjavami. Se mu pa to dogaja zelo pogosto, vedno bolj. Kar seveda pomeni, da – dodatno k volatilnosti njegovih izjav – postaja mednarodno povsem nekredibilen voditelj. Predsednik države, katerega beseda ne velja nič in predsednik, s katerim se nima smisla niti pogovarjati, ker njegova beseda ne velja nič.

Ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar reminds us of subtle maneuvers by deep state actors to sabotage presidential policies.

When a U.S. spy plane was shot down over the Soviet Union President Dwight Eisenhower had not be informed about its real mission. The CIA claimed that it had been a weather plane that went off course after its pilot was incapacitated. The president repeated that tale.

The Soviets then published that the wreckage of the U-2 spy plane had been recovered and the pilot captured alive. The Soviets were miffed of being lied to and Eisenhower’s attempt of detente with them failed.

Bhadrakumar sees a parallel in the recent Ukrainian drone attacks on strategic bomber on several Russian air field.

President Trump, in a call with the Russian president Putin, claimed that the U.S. had had no knowledge of the attack. That is, as several former CIA members confirm, implausible. The operation had been the making for 18 month which means that it had been initiated under President Biden. U.S. and/or British intelligence was certainly involved in designating the targets.

It seem that Trump, like Eisenhower before him, was not informed and thus embarrassed himself.

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Že dolgo nisem bral tako dobrega komentarja v sicer sinofobnem, rusofobnem, pro-vojnem in neskončno pro-izraelskem The Economistu. Če povzamem – Evropejci, svet je šel v tri krasne, prebivalstvo nam upada, že dolgo nas ne bremeni več, da ne znamo doseči omembe vredne gospodarske rasti in že zdavnaj smo se sprijaznili, da ne bomo globalna velesila. Ampak, hej, kaj boste počeli čez vikend? In če težave ne moremo rešiti do junija, lahko počaka na september, ko se vrnemo z morja.

Je nekaj simpatičnega v tem našem odnosu do sedanjosti in prihodnosti, mar ne? Zakaj bi se sekirali zaradi stvari, ki jih ne poznamo ali jim nismo kos ali pa ki bi zahtevale preveč matranja?

The world is going to hell, meaningful economic growth is a long-forgotten phenomenon, and by the way what are your plans for summer? That, roughly, is the vibe in Europe these days. To outsiders it feels hopelessly self-indulgent. Europeans have plenty that ought to keep them up at night. Beyond war in Ukraine and Trumpism in America, its big companies are also-rans and the continent’s population is shrinking for the first time since the plague seven centuries ago. Panic, moi? Whatever the issue, if it cannot be dealt with in the next few weeks it will have to wait for la rentrée in September.

Europeans know the global race for economic supremacy is lost. But the continent’s business model endures: it is a third poorer than America, works a third less, and is a lot more tanned at the end of August. 

Enjoy the weekend. Most Europeans will also enjoy Monday off, by the way.

Vir: The Economist

V času energetske krize so se cene plina za poslovne odjemalce povišale za 100 % (manjši odjemalci) do 150 % (največji odjemalci) glede na leto 2019. Za največje industrijske odjemalce plina so bile cene plina konec leta 2024 še vedno za 75 % višje kot leta 2019. Za manjše odjemalce so cene še za 15 % do 50 % višje kot za največje odjemalce in za 60 % višje kot leta 2019.

Slika 1: Cene zemeljskega plina v industriji v Sloveniji glede na velikost odjema, z vsemi dajatvami (EUR/kWh)

Vir: SURS.

V času energetske krize so se cene električne energije za poslovne odjemalce povišale za 140 % (manjši odjemalci) do 235 % (največji odjemalci) glede na leto 2019. Leta 2024 so bile za največje industrijske odjemalce cene elektrike še vedno za 220 % višje kot leta 2019. Za manjše odjemalce so cene še za 20 % do 30 % višje kot za največje odjemalce in za 90 do 170 % višje kot leta 2019.

Slika 2: Cene električne energije v industriji v Sloveniji glede na velikost odjema, z vsemi dajatvami (EUR/kWh)

Vir: SURS.

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Dober komentar v Washington Postu: Velesila, ki se odpove financiranju znanosti, ki ji je omogočila tehnološki, gospodarski in vojaški vzpon, se je odločila za samomor. Kitajska je seveda povsem nasproten primer od trumpovske Amerike. Toda lekcija je aktualna tudi za Slovenijo. Brez povečanega financiranja znanosti, raziskav in spodbujanja tehnološkega sektorja se nikoli ne bomo prebili med razvojno propulzivne države. Vedno bomo le drugo- ali tretje-razredni dobavitelji komponent za druge. Pa še to le v primeru, če kitajska podjetja ne bodo povsem izrinila nemških, za katera delajo naši dobavitelji. In ta stava je zelo tvegana.

But the planned spectacle is laughably hollow. Even as the president wants to showcase U.S. military power, he is doing grave and possibly irreparable damage to the real sources of U.S. strength, including its long-term investment in scientific research. Trump is declaring war on science, and the casualty will be the U.S. economy.

Since the 1940s, when the University of Chicago, Columbia University and the University of California played a central role in the Manhattan Project, the engine driving U.S. economic and military competitiveness has been federal support of research universities. That partnership has produced most of the key inventions of the information age, including the internet, GPS, smartphones and artificial intelligence.

Federal support of university research has also made possible the success of the United States’ world-leading biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries. Advances enabled by federal support include magnetic resonance imaging, the Human Genome Project, LASIK surgery, weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic, and drugs that have saved countless AIDS and covid-19 patients.

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Kopičenje poraza za porazom sistema “liberalne demokracije” je privedlo do psihološkega zloma, notranje dislokacije Zahoda. To zdaj vodi v neracionalna dejanja in iskanje zatočišča v pobožnih željah.

Spodaj je odlično razmišljanje Moon of Alabama o zlomu Zahoda, ki temelji na predavanju Emmanuela Todda. Dobra teza tega predavanja je, da je nekdanja Sovjetska zveza oziroma njena naslednica Rusija po koncu hladne vojne tako zelo kolapsnila ne samo zaradi kolapsa gospodarskega sistema, pač pa zaradi kolapsa ideologije (Todd to imenuje “religija”). Ideologija je vezivo vsakega sistema, brez ideologije se sistemi razkrojijo. In to Todd zdaj napoveduje Zahodu – po gospodarskem porazu proti Kitajski in po neštetih porazih liberalne demokracije (liberalne hegemonije) v mednarodnih odnosih se zahodni sistem sesuva, ker se sesuva tudi njegova ideologija. Trans liberalne vrednote hedonističnih individualistov niso ideologija, ki bi držala skupaj družbo. Vrednote družine, tradicije, nacije in država pač.

In 1976 the French anthropologist Emmanuel Todd predicted the down fall of the Soviet Union. In After The Empire, first published in French in 2001, he predicted the (relative) decline of the United States. 

In his latest (and last) book, La Défaite de l’Occident (The Defeat of the West), he laments the West’s inability to distinguish facts from wishes, as seen in its behavior during the war in Ukraine. Nihilism, a lack of values and of acceptance of reality, has infested western thinking:

Trans ideology is therefore, in my opinion, one of the flags of this nihilism that now defines the West, this drive to destroy not just things and people but reality.

Todd recently opened a substack where he is posting speeches and talks he has given.

Two of those, a recent talk given in Russia (in French) and one given in Hungary (in English) make (mostly) similar points.

The downfall of the Soviet Union led to deep psychological and societal dislocations in Russia. The defeat of the West, or ‘liberal democracy’,  is leading to similar consequences in Western societies.

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