Glejte spodaj: Evropa naj bi do leta 2050 zmanjšale emisije CO2 za 1.65 milijard ton, za kar naj bi zapravila okrog 20 bilijonov (20 tisoč milijard) evrov. Zdaj pa pazite na skupne učinke te norosti:

• te investicije v sončne panele, vetrnice, vodik, zajemanje CO2 itd. ne bo prineslo nobenega povečanja produktivnosti,
• večina (tudi 90%) vse te “čiste tehnologije” (solarji, vetrnice itd.) je in bo proizvedeno v Aziji, predvsem na Kitajskem,
• zaradi precej dražje električne energije iz obnovljivih virov in zaradi še bolj drage zamenjave plina z vodikom bo Evropa posledično uničila domačo industrijo,
• to zmanjšanje C02 v 30 letih bodo azijske države nadomestile zvečjimi izpusti v zgolj 2 letih,
• čemu ta evropska norost?
• čemu ta kolektivna  blaznost?
• morda je bolj pravilno vprašanje: komu koristi ta blaznost?
• … koristi tistim, ki dobivajo subvencije

In obratno, čim dlje bo trajala vojna, bolj bo Ukrajina uničena, več zemlje bo minirane ali posejane s kasetnimi bombami in s tem neobdelovalne, več mladih moških bo umrlo, več ljudi se bo nepovratno izselilo in manjša je verjetnost k povrnitvi pozitivnega demografskega prirastka, bolj uničena bosta infrastruktura in gospodarstvo, nižja bo osnova za pobiranje davkov in manjša bo možnost vzdrževati kakršnekoli resne šolske, zdravstvene in socialne storitve. Dlje časa kot bo trajala vojna, manj možnosti ima Ukrajina, da se spet postavi na noge in da postane sodobna demokratčna država.

No matter how the war ends, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has created the very outcome he most wanted to prevent: a thriving anti-Russian, pro-Western democracy, armed to the teeth with American weaponry, destined at a minimum to become a de facto ally of Washington, if not an official member of the NATO alliance.  

Or so it is thought in Washington and other Western capitals. But, with the sole exception of Ukraine’s deepening and quite understandable revulsion toward Russia, it is much closer to wishful thinking than to reality.  

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Western media have finally changed course. They are now admitting that the much promoted Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed. In fact, the acknowledge that it never had a chance to win in the first place.

The Hill, the Washington Post and CNN now agree that the Ukrainian army will never achieve its aims.

That makes it difficult for the Biden administration to get Congress approval for $24 billion in additional ‘aid’ to Ukraine. It does not make sense to pay for a cause that is evidently lost.

The Polish President Duda has also acknowledged that the counter-offensive has failed. Relations between Warsaw and Kiev have gotten worse and Polish interests will not allow for more support or active intervention.

Nothing has come from the ‘peace conference’ which Saudi Arabia arranged on Ukraine’s behalf.

Despite the onslaught of bad news the Ukrainian army is still trying to take Russian positions in the south and east of Ukraine. But it simply does not have enough in men and material to break through the lines.

Even if they would manage to get a local breakthrough there are not enough reserves to push for the necessary follow up. Just one of the NATO trained brigades has still been held back. All others have been mauled in their various deployment zones.

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Tako dobesedno pravi The Economist, če komu to kaj pomeni (kot ex-post zunanja potrditev znanega dogajanja). V glavnem, zgodba ameriškega “zaustavljanja Kitajske” je dokaj enostavna. Obe zadnji ameriški administraciji (Trumpova in Bidenova) sta poskusili zaustaviti kitajski vzpon prek vse bolj kompleksnega mehanizma carinskih ovir, prepovedi nastopanja kitajskih tehnoloških podjetij na ameriškem trgu, prek prepovedi izvoza tehnologije v Kitajsko in prek prepovedi izvoza tehnologije za izdelavo kritičnih tehnoloških inputov (čipov). Čeprav je bila na prvi pogled ameriška strategija uspešna, pa je privedla do treh perverznih učinkov. Prvič, kitajski izvoz in investicije v ZDA so se sicer res zmanjšali, vendar je Kitajska te proizvode preusmerila na ameriški trg prek tretjih držav (od Indije in Vietnama do Mehike) in se s tem izognila ameriškim carinam. Drugič, ZDA so s tem te tretje države pahnile v kitajski objem oziroma v kitajske dobavne verige. Te tretje države so zdaj postale odvisne od kitajskih investicij in naročil in če se bodo nekoč morale odločati med ZDA in Kitajsko, se bodo bolj verjetno odločile za KItajsko, ki jih je idnustrializirala in jim “daje kruh”. In tretjič, z ekonomsko integracijo tertjih držav s Kitajsko prihaja tudi geopolitična. Kitajska s tem širi svoj krog zaveznikov in svojo geopolitično moč, kar se nenazadnje kaže v porastu pomena grupacije BRICS+ in števila novih prošenj za članstvo (+23).

Torej, se je ZDA ta strategija “odklapljanja” (decoupling) od Kitajske in “zmanjševanja tveganj” (de-risking) splačala ali pa so se s tem tveganja za ZDA samo še bolj povečala? Je bila ameriška strategija glede Kitajske ameriški strel v lastno koleno?

On August 9th President Joe Biden unveiled his latest weapon in America’s economic war with China. New rules will police investments made abroad by the private sector, and those into the most sensitive technologies in China will be banned. The use of such curbs by the world’s strongest champion of capitalism is the latest sign of the profound shift in America’s economic policy as it contends with the rise of an increasingly assertive and threatening rival.

For decades America cheered on the globalisation of trade and capital, which brought vast benefits in terms of enhanced efficiency and lower costs for consumers. But in a dangerous world, efficiency alone is no longer enough. In America, and across the West, China’s rise is bringing other aims to the fore. Understandably, officials want to protect national security, by limiting China’s access to cutting-edge technology that could enhance its military might, and to build alternative supply chains in areas where China maintains a vice-like grip.

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Vojna v Ukrajini je za ZDA win – win ekonomska zgodba. Velika večina finančne pomoči Ukrajini je dejansko v obliki financiranja proizvodnje orožja v ameriških podjetjih (s čimer ZDA nadomestijo zastarelo orožje in se pripravijo na vojno (s Kitajsko)). Zraven pa je še “windfall gain”, korist za ameriške ponudnike LNG plina, ki so v veliki meri nadomestili ruski plin, in to po 3 do 5-krat višji ceni. Pa še Evropo, predvsem Nemčijo so deindustrializirali in s tem umaknili na stranski tir. Gledano iz tega vidika je ameriški ekonomski interes, da vojna v Ukrajini traja čim dlje. Dokler pač ne zmanjka za boj sposobnih Ukrajincev in ozemlja.

Dober komentar, zakaj ameriška proxy vojna s Kitajsko na Talvanu nikakor ne bi bila primerljiva s sedanjo ameriško proxy vojno z Rusijo v Ukrajini. Na Tajvanu ni posebne nekitajske manjšine, ki bi se upirala, Tajvan ne meji na sosednje države, ki bi lahko čez mejo dobavljale orožje in ZDA nimajo načina, da bi v primeru vojne na Tajvan dostavljale zadovoljive količine orožja.

Too many people are convinced that the US can almost in a light switch moment, move to support Taiwan in a conflict with China. They make comparisons between Taiwan and Ukraine which don’t exist.

Taiwan is an island and isn’t landlocked to potential allies, it effectively depends on external sources for its energy needs, it doesn’t have ethnic Chinese in a civil war with the Taiwanese to provoke a future conflict. Taiwan doesn’t have the same political will as Ukraine does to engage in a conflict with China. Who exactly is going to provide ammunition, military hardware etc to Taiwan and how exactly are they going to get it to them?

Conducting a proxy war with China wrt Taiwan bears no resemblance to conducting a proxy war with Russia wrt Ukraine. Never mind the fact that the West has all but exhausted its arms capabilities supporting Ukraine and is likely to take years to replenish even if the Ukraine war stopped tomorrow.

Vir: The Sirius Report, Twitter (X)

The Ukraine war — or more precisely the West’s response to the latter — is causing Europe to deindustrialize at frightening speed. What’s worse, there is ample evidence that, from America’s perspective, this was the intended outcome all along.

America Is Deindustrializing Europe Compact Magazine, a radical American journal https://compactmag.com/article/america-is-deindustrializing-europe

1/ The Russia-Ukraine conflict has deeply transformed transatlantic relations, leading to a greater degree of European “vassalisation” (in the words of a recent @ecfr report) to the US than ever before.

The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations Europeans’ response to Russia’s war on Ukraine confirms their profound dependence on the US – an unwise position given the security challenge in Europe and coming geopolitical competition with China. https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-art-of-vassalisation-how-russias-war-on-ukraine-has-transformed-transatlantic-relations/

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Meritve v zadnjem desetletju konsistentno kažejo anomalije v temperaturi površine oceanov, nekje v razponu med 0.1 in 0.2 stopinje Celzija nad povprečjem obdobja 1991-2020. Letošnja anomalija pa je še posebej velika in je julija znašala kar 0.5 stopinje Celzija:

Opomba: Sea surface temperature anomalies (°C), relative to the 1991-2020 reference period, averaged over the extrapolar global ocean (60°S-60°N) for the month of July from 1979 to 2023. Data source: ERA5.

Vir: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.

Ključno vprašanje med atmosferskimi fiziki in klimatologi letos je, kaj je povzročilo to nenormalno visoko anomalijo letos. Dober povzetek možnih razlogov je dal slovenski atmosferski fizik Žiga Zaplotnik:

Slovenska strokovnjakinja za področje atmosferske dinamike Lina Boljka, zaposlena na Univerzi v Bergnu, pa dodaja, da gre najbrž za amplifikacijo posameznih učinkov:

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