Iran ne more izgubiti, ker ne sme – ker se bori za preživetje in bi s porazom bilo konec Irana kot neodvisne države. ZDA lahko izgubijo, ker se borijo za prestiž, za svoj vpliv – s porazom ne izgubijo eksistence, pač pa samo svoj vpliv na Bližnjem vzhodu. Iran z zmago pridobi relativno več od ZDA – Iran se reši iz zapora, v katerega so ga strpale ZDA pred 47 leti, ZDA pa samo ohranijo svoj vpliv na Bližnjem vzhodu in ohranijo sedanji status petrodolarja. Iran se bo torej boril bolj in z vsemi sredstvi. Ker ne sme izgubiti.

I do not agree with Azizi’s reading of the balance of resolve. What matters is not the absolute destruction each side can dish out to the other. What matters in Mercy is pain tolerance.

Iran has vastly higher pain tolerance than the US bc it is fighting for its survival as an independent power, while the US is fighting for an extended position. If the Iranians lose, they lose everything. If the US loses, it loses the Gulf. If Iran wins, it gets out of the jail that the West has put it in.

Also important to note that Iran is strategically hard as a state formation, the US is not. This became clear as daylight with the turnouts for the 250th and the ayatollah’s funeral.

It’s not even close. The balance of resolve strongly favors Iran. That is ultimately why Iranian strategy is correct. And why the US will not be able to reverse the decision of the war.

Listen to @vali_nasr carefully. Iran’s calculation is that this has to last longer much than a few weeks. The blockade of the Gulf would have to go on for long enough so that Trump says, “I don’t want to do this again.”

Even the doves no longer believe that they can get anything without imposing dramatically higher costs on the US. This means that they have to crash the world economy to teach Trump a lesson he won’t forget. 

Nasr thinks this is a risky strategy. But again, what alternatives are available to Iran at this point? How can Iran surrender the Hormuz weapon — bc that is what the US is demanding de facto — and hope to tell the tale? What other course of action is available to Tehran to deter the US from attacking it again? How else can Iran get out of the jail than the West has put it in?

Ofc, it is risky and costly. But it is superior to all alternatives available to Tehran now that the possibility of an accommodation has been rejected by the US. Sometimes you have to take risks. One such time is when your survival as an independent state is on the line. This is why the Iranian strategy is correct.