The closing scissors and profits

Zanimiv članek v tem, da pokaže gibanje dobičkov. Vendar temelji na napačni učbeniški predpostavki, da dobički poganjajo poslovne korporativne investicije. Že ta spodnja slika iz članka kaže, da se oboji sicer gibljejo v isto smer, vendar da ne gre za mehansko relacijo – torej da dobički neposredno poganjajo bodoče poslovne investicije.

https://thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com/2022/09/prof6.png

Kot povedo sami menedžerji, na poslovne investicije najbolj vplivajo poslovni sentimenti – torej vzdušje optimizma ali pesimizma med mednedžerji. Kar pomeni, da lahko investicije sovpadajo z višjimi dobički, lahko pa tudi zaostajajo ali prednjačijo.

To smo ugotovili tudi mi v lanski empirični analizi, ki smo jo naredili za Evropsko komisijo in ki je pokazala, da v državah EU dobički niso močno povezani z bodočimi investicijami.

https://damijan.org/2022/08/12/kako-pojasniti-nizko-stopnjo-nvesticij-v-sloveniji-v-zadnjem-desetletju/

Michael Roberts Blog

Global corporate profits growth is heading south, according to analysis by JP Morgan economists. JP Morgan estimates that, after surging a humungous 89% (4q moving ave) in 2021, global corporate profits moderated to a still-solid 24% in the year ending in 2Q22. And they reckon that “on net, the level of profits is 17% above its pre-pandemic trend, but still making up for lost earnings through the pandemic.” However, JP Morgan expects “slowing in profit growth in the coming quarters as inflation cools while labor markets remain tight. Additional pressure is coming from rising corporate borrowing rates as central banks press on with the steepest tightening cycle in decades.” The scissors of a future slump (falling profits and rising interest rates) are beginning to close.

During the post-pandemic recovery, corporate profit margins (that’s the difference between revenues and costs per unit of production) reached multi-decade highs as the surge in…

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