Rusiji ne gre po načrtih v invaziji v Ukrajini. Hkrati so za vedno padle simpatije v Ukrajini do velikega ruskega brata. Tudi med ruskim prebivalstvom, kajti Putinova vojska je do tal zbombardirala mesti s pretežno ruskim prebivalstvom (Harkiv in Mariupol).

Na drugi strani pa Rusiji grozi največja finančna kriza po letu 1998 ter težke posledice za prebivalstvo. Toda sankcije in učinki finančne krize delujejo na daljši rok. Če so bile sankcije namenjene temu, da se oligarhi, ki bodo (začasno) izgubili premoženje, in prebivalstvo uprejo Putinu, glede tega ne bodo prav uspešne. Vsaj ne na srednji rok. Putina lahko zaustavi le ljudska vstaja, milijoni ljudi na ulicah ruskih mest. Zaenkrat tega ni na vidiku. Kot kažejo izkušnje, ljudi k javnemu angažmaju ali uporu bolj ženejo ideje in ideologija kot pa materialne težave. In Putin je tukaj sprožil učinkovito strategijo, kako želi povrniti nekdanjo veličino Rusije po kolapsu Sovjetske zveze in ostalih zgodovinskih porazov od boljševikov naprej.

First, he’s set the clock ticking for possible defaults on about $150 billion in debt as the Russian economy slumps and its currency collapses under the pressure of sanctions, including on its foreign-currency reserves.

That would be Russia’s worst economic crisis since the 1998 default that’s scarred into the memories of millions of its people. Unlike then, the Kremlin is now increasingly isolated, and the international community won’t likely be in the mood to help cushion the blow.

Second, Putin has convinced Ukrainians they can never accept Russian dominance. While a pro-Moscow constituency existed in Ukraine before the war and largely agreed with his view that the two nations were one people, Russia’s destruction of mostly Russian-speaking cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol has ended that debate.

And lastly, with Ukraine still defending fiercely nearly three weeks into the war, Putin has also exposed the failings of Russia’s military modernization on which he lavished billions in the past decade. That’s raising big questions about whether corrupt officials — Russia’s perennial problem — siphoned off funds that undermined the rearmament.

Despite Kremlin efforts to crush dissent, evidence of unease is emerging — an anti-war protest during Russia’s main TV news broadcast last night caused a sensation.

Still, state-run pollsters claim Putin’s popularity increased since the war started. It’s also far from clear sanctions will push Russians to protest. Historically, they’ve been motivated more by ideas than material hardship, which they generally meet with stoicism.

Putin showed he understood that, retaining public support with rhetoric about restoring Russia’s greatness following the Soviet Union’s collapse.

But his Ukraine gamble has cast doubt on that central message of his rule.

Vir: Bloomberg