Inflacija – ne zganjajte panike

Zapis iz jutrišnjega Bloomberga:

Wall Street is wrong. The panicky talking heads are wrong. The former government officials are wrong. This seems to be the message coming from the Fed, according to minutes of a recent meeting. Instead, policymakers and the public should be listening to the central bank’s army of 400 Ph.D. economists and their clear message about inflation: it will be back under 2% next year.

Sicer bomo videli, kdo bo glede inflacije imel prav (panični finančni trgi, jastrebi med centralnimi bančniki ali pa armada ekonomistov na Fedu), dosedanje izkušnje pa kažejo, da Fedovi ekonomisti bolj natančno napovedujejo inflacijo kot Wall Street inštitucije ali člani boarda Fed.

Research co-authered by Christina Romer, a former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama administration, also found that Fed staff forecasts were more accurate than forecasts from FOMC participants or private sector economists.

Anyone making predictions would do well to discard the committee forecasts in favor of the staff, and “should put little or negative weight on the commercial forecasts,” she and co-author David Romer wrote in 2008.

A study published by the European Central Bank in 2014 agreed, finding that Fed staff forecasts are more accurate than private forecasts.

While the Fed doesn’t identify who’s behind its forecasts, the staff haven’t shied away from making out-of-consensus calls. In a September discussion paper, Jeremy Rudd argued that the view that inflation expectations are a critical tool in assessing the inflation outlook — widely accepted by Fed policy makers — was wrong.  

One response

  1. To, da ameriška vlada že najmanj 5 desetletij sistematično ponareja statistiko je že dolgo znano dejstvo. Obstaja celo (plačljiva) stran bivšega visokega uradnika ameriškega statističnega urada, ki je naredil business iz promptnih popravkov uradne statistike. Svojčas sem celo naredil bookmark, ki ga sedaj na žalost ne morem na hitro najti.

    Kar pa se realne inflacije tiče. Namesto 400 ekonomistov vprašajte na tisoče nabavnih mangerjev. To kar opažamo v podjetjih od začetka tega leta, je skokovita rast inflacije. Pa ne par procentov. Ko se bodo cene še dodatno prilagodile rasti cen energije in ko bodo sledili sindikati s povečanjem plač, bo inflacijski pritisk brutalen.

    Kako bodo na to reagirale centralne banke, ki ni majo nikakršnega prostora za dvig obrestnih mer? No ja, vsaj če nočejo do konca sesuti proračunov držav, da o podjetjih niti ne govorimo.

    Moja stava je, da bodo počele to , kar so tudi med krizo po letu 2008:

    “Extend and pretend”

    Dokler bo šlo. Na koncu pa, kot bi rekel Keynes, smo vsi mrtvi.

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