Ali bi se “izgubljenemu desetletju” v razvitih državah, ki se kaže v trajno izgubljeni blaginji prebivalstva, lahko izognili? Robert Skidelsky zatrjuje, da bi lahko – (1) če bi se izognili recesiji z boljšo regulacijo finančnega sistema in (2) če bi vodili prave makroekonomske politike v času krize – keynesianske namesto varčevalnih.
Ten years after the 2007-2008 financial crisis, it is worth asking where the world’s developed economies are today, where they would have been had there been no crisis, and, perhaps more important, where they might have been had different policy choices prevailed before and after the collapse.
The first two questions can be answered with a single graph, which shows real (inflation-adjusted) per capita GDP growth for OECD countries from 2000 to 2018. As a bloc, the OECD spent five years getting back to where it was just before the crash (the eurozone took two years longer). And its average annual growth rate (1.5%) has remained at three-quarters of the pre-crash level (2%).
The red dotted line shows where the OECD would be but for the crisis, and the green line shows where it will be if growth continues at its lower post-crash rate. By 2019, each person in the bloc will have suffered a cumulative loss of $32,000, on average.
The question of where we would be had different policies been adopted is, no surprise, much harder to answer. Could the crisis have been avoided in the first place? In retrospect, there is a strong case to be made that it could have been. We now know that financial-market liberalization, influenced by “efficient market theory,” made banks inherently more vulnerable to contagion. But what about the effects of post-crash policies? The insight and analysis offered in recent years by Project Syndicate commentators, many of whom have led the economic-policy debate since the crisis, help to answer that question.
A review of the policy debates of the post-crisis years suggests that flawed macroeconomic theories were given too much weight for too long. The result has been slower growth, lost economic capacity, and surplus misery for millions of people around the world.
Vir: Robert Skidelsky, Project Syndicate