Zakaj je S&P, ali kako se že kliče, znižal oceno Franciji

Heh, tale je dobra. S&P (ena izmed tistih treh bonitetnih hiš, ki je ničvrednim mortgage-based obveznicam štancala AAA bonitetne ocene) je danes znižala bonitetno oceno Francije na AA. Z obrazložitvijo: “Francoska davčna reforma in reforma trga dela ne bosta bistveno dvignili srednjeročnih obetov za rast v Franciji“.

No, Krugman je šel pogledat, kaj se dogaja s francosko rastjo in javnim dolgom ter obeti do 2018 glede na Britanijo, ki ima oceno AAA. In ups, Francija je s krizo bolje opravila glede rasti BDP in ima bistveno boljše obete glede javnega dolga od Britanije. Kaj si naj zdaj mislimo o oceni S&P?

V odgovor nekaj sočnih poudarkov iz Krugmanovega komentarja:

Does S&P have inside knowledge of the state of French finances? No. Does it have a better macroeconomic model than, say, the IMF […] ? You have to be kidding.

So why is France getting downgraded? […]

OK, another dirty little secret. What do we know — really know — about which economic reforms will generate growth, and how much growth they’ll generate? The answer is, not much! People at places like the European Commission talk with great confidence about structural reform and the wonderful things it does, but there’s very little clear evidence to support that confidence. Does anyone really know that Hollande’s policies will mean growth that is x.x percent — or more likely, 0.x percent — slower than it would be if Olli Rehn were put in control? No.

So, again, where is this coming from?

I’m sorry, but I think that when S&P complains about lack of reform, it’s actually complaining that Hollande is raising, not cutting taxes on the wealthy, and in general isn’t free-market enough to satisfy the Davos set.

Če vas zanima, kaj so bonitetne agencije, na čelu s S&P, počele pri ocenjevanju rizičnosti ameriških mortgage-based obveznic in kakšna je njihova krivda za nastanek sedanje finančne krize, si preberite moj zapis iz maja Ocene bi lahko naredila “vsaka krava”.

Iz tega vam bo tudi precej jasno, koliko lahko S&P zaupate pri katerikoli drugi bonitetni oceni. Odgovor je: nič (zero, nada, 0).

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