Bi Ciper moral zapustiti evro?

To zgodbo smo že obdelali na primeru Grčije. Se splača državi zapustiti skupno valuto v času velike finančne krize? Krugman (še vedno) pravi, da ja. Morda ne pred pred krizo, ker bi to povzročilo padec zaupanja in s tem spodbudilo nastanek krize. Toda zakaj vztrajati pri skupni valuti, ko je finančna kriza že tukaj? Krugman:

Having your own currency raises transaction costs and makes business more difficult; but giving up your own currency means that you have to adjust to overvaluation through deflation, which is much more costly than devaluation. At this point, however, Cyprus has made doing business very difficult via capital controls, while retaining its inability to deal with overvaluation via currency realignment. So it has created a pessimal currency area, offering the worst of both worlds.

And Cyprus is now very overvalued — not only have the big capital inflows of yore dried up, a major export industry — offshore banking — has just died.

OK, there are still some considerations: access to ECB lending, possibly anti-inflation credibility, and general relations with the European Union. But Cyprus is now almost surely facing the prospect, not of recession, but of deep depression. Is this worth it?

Hja, Krugman pozablja na en pomemben detajl, ki smo ga obdelali že pri Grčiji. Prehod nazaj na samostojno valuto je povezan z visoko devalvacijo. To pa pomeni na eni strani povečanje uvoznih cen v enaki meri ter sorazmerno povišano inflacijo. Po drugi strani pa razvrednotenje (realnih) plač ob enakem bremenu dolga za podjetja in gospodinjstva. Devalvacija je dobra je za izvoznike. Toda kaj, če države (kot so Grčija in Ciper) zelo malo izvažajo? Kakšen smisel ima iti nazaj na svojo valuto in še bolj zatolči podjetja in gospodinjstva?

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