John Mearsheimer:

Iranu ni treba zmagati, mora samo zdržati in se ne pustiti pokoriti Izraelu in ZDA.

On 3 March 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking about the Iran war. I told the Judge that the Trump administration was dragged into this war by Israel and its enormously powerful lobby in the US. Both Secretary of State Marco Rubio and House Speaker Mike Johnson have admitted as much and it is clear from listening to and reading the discourse on the internet that many Americans understand that this is another war for Israel. Iran was no threat to the US and there was no reason for Trump to attack it.

I also emphasized that it is almost impossible for me to see how Israel and the US win this war. It seems that victory for this aggressive tag team requires not only regime change in Iran, but replacing the regime with new leaders who are subservient to Israeli and American wishes. If those two things do not happen, Iran will surely keep its nuclear enrichment capability; keep building ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, & long-range drones; and keep supporting Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah. The likelihood of this war producing an Iranian regime that is subservient to Israel and the US is close to zero in my estimation.

For Iran to win, all it has to do is survive and not end up as a pawn of Israel and the US. Even if its missile inventory is greatly diminished, its nuclear enrichment capability is crippled, and its infrastructure is badly damaged, it matters little if the regime survives or is replaced by a regime that refuses to kowtow to the tag team. Remember that in the Vietnam War, the US won virtually every battle and lost the war.

Kot sem že nekajkrat povedal: Ameriški napad na Irak v 2023 je (s posledičnim dramatičnim dvigom cen nafte in plina) Rusijo potegnil iz bankrota in jo znova vrnil med velesile.

Tokratni ameriški napad na Iran bo ruskemu gospodarstvu letos dal pospešek in dodatno geopolitično moč – Indija in Kitajska bosta plačevali več za rusko nafto, ker bo ta edina dosegljiva. Rusija bo nehote največji zmagovalec te vojne.  Kateri pametnjakovič je bil arhitekt tega norega napada na Irak?

(če še ne veste: Iranci so danes v Savdski Arabiji napadli največji izvozni naftni terminal na svetu in če se bodo v vojno proti Iranu vključile zalivske države, jim bodo Iranci potolkli vsa ključna nahajališča, terminale in skladišča nafte; izgubili bodo tudi svoje, toda Iranci borijo bitko za svoje preživetje).

Jože P. Damijan, Drago Babič

Slovenija se v evropskih in mednarodnih primerjavah še vedno uvršča med države z razmeroma visoko kakovostjo življenja. Po kazalnikih socialne varnosti, dostopnosti javnih storitev, nizke dohodkovne neenakosti in splošnega zadovoljstva prebivalstva praviloma presega povprečje Evropske unije. Ta rezultat ni naključen. Je posledica zgodovinsko ugodnega institucionalnega razvoja, relativno uspešne tranzicije, razmeroma uravnoteženega socialno-ekonomskega modela, vključitve v skupni evropski trg relativno stabilnega makroekonomskega okvira.

Toda Poročilo o razvoju 2025 temu uspehu nastavlja natančno in neprijetno ogledalo. Ključna ugotovitev poročila ni v tem, da bi Slovenija danes živela slabo, temveč v tem, da se Slovenija po letu 2010 vse bolj oddaljuje od razvojne dinamike, ki bi takšno raven blaginje lahko dolgoročno vzdrževala. Rast produktivnosti dela v Sloveniji že več kot desetletje zaostaja za povprečjem EU in še izraziteje za vodilnimi inovacijskimi gospodarstvi. Po letu 2020 se proces realne konvergence v BDP na prebivalca praktično ustavlja.

Slovenija je obstala v režimu nizke investicijske intenzivnosti. Podatki iz Poročila o razvoju 2025 kažejo, da so poslovne investicije v Sloveniji po krizi ostale trajno nižje kot v primerljivih državah, zlasti investicije v neoprijemljivi kapital – raziskave in razvoj, digitalizacijo, organizacijske inovacije in razvoj kadrov. Delež vlaganj v raziskave in razvoj sicer ni zanemarljiv, vendar je struktura teh vlaganj neuravnotežena: preveč sredstev ostaja ujetih v raziskovalni sferi, premalo pa jih preide v faze prototipiranja, pilotnih linij in komercializacije. Še izrazitejši je zaostanek pri vlaganjih v digitalizacijo procesov, razvoj kadrov in organizacijske inovacije v podjetjih – torej v tiste elemente, ki neposredno vplivajo na produktivnost.

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Andrew Korybko

The goal is to obtain proxy control over Iran’s enormous oil and gas reserves so that they can be weaponized as leverage against China for coercing it into a lopsided trade deal that would derail its superpower rise and therefore restore US-led unipolarity.

Trump claimed that the US’ military campaign against Iran is to “defend the American people”, while many critics have alleged (whether in jest or not) that it’s to distract from the Epstein Files, but few observers realize that it’s actually all about China. It was explained here that Trump 2.0 “decided to gradually deprive China of access to markets and resources, ideally through a series of trade deals, in order to imbue the US with the indirect leverage required to peacefully derail China’s superpower rise.”

To elaborate, “The US’ trade deals with the EU and India could ultimately result in them curtailing China’s access to their markets under pain of punitive tariffs if they refuse. In parallel, the US’ special operation in Venezuela, pressure on Iran, and simultaneous attempts to subordinate Nigeria and other leading energy producers could curtail China’s access to the resources required for fueling its superpower rise.” The resource dimension that’s relevant to Iran is a major part of the US’ “Strategy of Denial”.

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Moralni pristop k mednarodnemu pravu

Hipokritični pristop k mednarodnemu pravu v funkciji vazalnega odnosa do gospodarja:

“Legal assessments under international law will achieve relatively little in this regard… That is why now is not the moment to lecture our partners and allies; despite all doubts, we share many of their goals, without ourselves being able to actually achieve them.”

Scott Ritter:

President Trump has gambled his entire legacy on a quick and relatively bloodless victory over Iran.

His goal (and the goal of his Israeli masters/partners) is regime change.

The plan his “Secretary of War” (a name which is fundamentally at odds with the concept of a “Peace President”) has convinced him to implement involves decapitating the Iranian leadership, suppressing the Iranian security apparatus, and waiting for the Iranian people to take matters into their own hands. In his concluding remarks made in an 8-minute video posted on his Truth Social account shortly after the joint Israeli-US attacks began, Trump laid out the basic gist of his plan:

To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity. Or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death. Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

For many years, you have asked for America’s help. But you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.

Using intelligence provided by the United States (and openly bragged about by Donald Trump in the lead up to this war), Israel attacked and killed some 46 members of Iran’s senior military and civilian leadership—including the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

This single action, more than anything else the United States has done (including yet again carrying out the war crime of perfidy by lulling the Iranians into a false sense of security through so-called “peace negotiations” that neither the US nor Israel ever intended to follow through on) shows both the moral and intellectual vacuum that exists within the Trump administration when it comes to Iran.

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Wall Street Journal:

“The precise size of the U.S. stock of air-defense interceptors—what the Pentagon calls magazine depth—is classified. But repeated conflicts with Iran and its proxies in the Middle East have been eating into the supply of air defenses in the region.”

In 12 day war, some evidence Iran conserved many missiles, including its more capable ones, in case war spiraled.

They understand the missile defense math is on their side and can potentially wait US out.

The problem: Iran drones and missiles are cheap and easy to replace. But missile defense interceptions are expensive and time consuming to build.

US might run out before they do, and they can out produce missiles compared to US interceptor production.

It’s the same broad cost-exchange problem US encountered fighting the Houthis, armed by Iran with similar cheap capabilities. That was less about interceptors/missile defense than premier U.S. guided missiles vs. cheap launchers.

US spent $7 billion bombing Houthis over about 6-7 weeks and failed to degrade Houthis’ ability to attack.

The problem v. Iran is much worse because on top of expensive offensive munitions, US and Israel are burning through defensive munitions (interceptors) too.

Trump says he wanted regime change but it seems like he thought that could happen in a week — or otherwise perhaps hoped remnants of Iran regime would “lay down arms” for “immunity.”

What happens if Iran still attacking Gulf targets a week from now, with interceptor stocks even more critical?

The level of overconfidence coming from the White House and Trump is astounding.

https://wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-races-to-accomplish-iran-mission-before-munitions-run-out-c014acbc?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_1

I may have been the only analyst to predict this in advance. Now pls listen to me carefully.

The US and Israel do not have a theory of victory. There was two very hard-to-solve problems with their war planning. 

• US-Israeli war aims are, preferably, to permanently remove Iran from the ranks of the confrontation states by toppling the regime; failing that, to disarm Iran by destroying its missile arsenal.

• Regime change cannot be accomplished by aerial bombardment. It has never been done. Without ground-force partners, there is no way to control political developments on the ground. Air coercion is simply not up to the task.

• What can be accomplished, if one is prepared to expend much of one’s magazine, is crippling and fragmenting the state. But that expands rather than constrains the possibility space. This is not a path to a clear victory for the Western powers.

• The second problem is even more immediate. This is the issue that the Iranian arsenal is simply too large for the US to disarm it. And now that, as I predicted, they are going for counter-value strikes on soft targets, how do you protect the oil monarchies? And if you can’t do that, then how you contain this? How do you prevent Iran from wrecking financial markets, the world economy, the Trump presidency, and the GOP for a generation?

• There are considerable risks of escalation here. The White House needs to game plan the exit plan here. There is no clear path to victory. And the risks are multiplying by the hour. You are not going to like where this ends up.

 

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