Trump je včeraj v svojem tipičnem slogu razglasil “predčasno” zmago v vojni proti Iranu. Že ure pred tem so ameriške sile dobile ukaz za evakuacijo iz vojaških baz v Zalivu, ameriški leteči tankerji pa so odleteli proti Evropi. Kar je lahko znak ameriškega enostranskega umika ali pa prihajajoče jedrske eskalacije.

Toda čeprav je Trump razglasil zmago in ukazal svojim silam pot domov, se vojna z Iranom ni končala. Vojna se bo končala, ko se bo za to odločil Iran. Kakšen bo endgame te vojne?

Endgame lahko povzamemo v štirih alinejah:

1. popoln umik ZDA iz zalivskih držav,
2. prihod Kitajske kot strateškega partnerja zalivskih držav,
3. Iran bo dobil “pravico do atomske bombe” in sankcije proti njemu bodo ukinjene,
4. uničenje Izraela.

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Cornered, Trump makes an announcement to calm the markets, but the war goes on and the strait remains closed.

Nothing has changed in the war. Trump is backed into a corner by the market, with few interceptors left, American bases being bombed, and Israel under intense bombardment.

Although Israel has been successful in suppressing footage of the strikes, the number of hospitalized victims gives us an idea of the scale of these attacks: 2,000 people hospitalized in Israel, a figure very similar to that of Iran, which is being devastated by bombs.

President Trump called President Putin, likely seeking mediation with Iran, but was rebuffed by the Iranian regime, as hours later he threatened much, much, much worse bombings if the strait was not opened.

Trump is behaving like a spoiled loser child and tomorrow will face renewed pressure from the markets, which are starting to realize he has no power over the situation.

Tonight, attacks on Tehran continue, and Iran is retaliating with more missiles against Israel.

Also this morning, refueling aircraft and others departed from Saudi Arabian airports, in a clear Iranian victory following several days of bombing that included Saudi oil facilities.

Despite the Iranian bombardment against Gulf countries, US troops maintained attacks on Iran from these territories, causing damage to the infrastructure of those nations.

The US-Israel coalition is at a loss. As they continue the bombings, they see no sign of Iran yielding; on the contrary, Iran has been destroying radars and opening a corridor for more efficient missile strikes against Israel.

It seems the war will endure for some time, and the strait will remain closed

Trump pač ni v mentalni kondiciji razumeti reliefnih kart, zgodovine in vojaške strategije.

Iran is calling our bluff because they know a ground invasion would be catastrophic for US forces.

Doing targeted strikes with Delta or DEVGRU is one thing –– doing a full scale democracy-building invasion is the dumbest possible thing we could do. They have an overwhelming strategic advantage.

We have an incredible military. Best in the world by far, no one else comes close. Still doesn’t matter here.

Iran is massive, and built like a fortress. It has 90 million people, tons of hidden bases and outposts, infinite places to ambush US troops, and more than 600,000 fighters who are ideologically motivated to fight to the death and kill as many US troops as possible.

Their landmass is 50% larger than both Iraq and Afghanistan combined. They have 5x more troops than we faced in Iraq and Afghanistan combined –– and everyone knows how those went.

These aren’t a bunch of goat herders with RPGs, either –– they have a sophisticated military, they’re better-equipped than anyone else we’ve faced in decades, and they’ve also prepared for this conflict for decades.

Further, their fighters believe they’re on a holy and righteous mission. We martyred their religious leader and humiliated their country on the world stage –– and the Persians are a very proud people. These people would gladly fight to the death for decades on end in a brutal war of attrition, honored at the opportunity to kill as many Americans as possible and eventually be martyred at the hand of the Great Satan.

Analysts estimate it would take 500,000-1M troops to secure Iran in a full-scale ground invasion. It would require decades, many trillions of dollars, and be orders of magnitude more challenging than conquering Iraq and Afghanistan combined. It’s hard to estimate how many American troops would die.

Not gonna happen. Ridiculous to even consider a full-scale ground invasion.

This stuff about the admin potentially drafting Americans for an invasion –– it’s nonsense. They’re bluffing to get Tehran to come to the table, and Tehran knows it.

That said –– if we ever were crazy enough to attempt a full-scale invasion, the Iranians would welcome it. Their country would become a graveyard for American soldiers, and the expenditures would bankrupt our country. We can’t afford to make that mistake.

Analiza izobrazbene strukture žensk v Iranu in primerjava z ZDA

Izobrazbena struktura žensk v Iranu se je v zadnjih desetletjih bistveno izboljšala, zlasti po islamski revoluciji leta 1979, ko je država močno razširila dostop do osnovnega in srednjega izobraževanja. Kljub določenim institucionalnim in družbenim omejitvam – kot so omejitve v posameznih študijskih programih ali razlike v dostopu do trga dela – so ženske v Iranu dosegle visoko stopnjo udeležbe v izobraževalnem sistemu. V primerjavi z Združenimi državami Amerike, kjer je izobraževanje žensk že dolgo visoko razvito in institucionalno podprto, podatki kažejo tako podobnosti (npr. prevlada žensk med univerzitetnimi študenti) kot tudi razlike (npr. v splošni pismenosti in povezavi med izobrazbo ter zaposlenostjo). Analiza temelji na najnovejših razpoložljivih podatkih (2022–2024) iz virov, kot so UNESCO Institute for Statistics, World Bank, OECD in U.S. Census Bureau.

1. Pismenost

Pismenost je temeljni kazalnik izobrazbene strukture, saj odraža dostop do osnovnega izobraževanja.

Iran

Stopnja pismenosti žensk, starejših od 15 let, znaša približno 85–87 %. Pri mlajši generaciji (15–24 let) je pismenost skoraj univerzalna, približno 98–99 %. To predstavlja velik napredek v primerjavi s sedemdesetimi leti, ko je bila pismenost žensk približno 35 %. Razlika med spoloma še obstaja (pri moških približno 92–94 %), vendar se hitro zmanjšuje. (Snopes)

ZDA

Stopnja osnovne pismenosti odraslih žensk je skoraj univerzalna (≈99 %). Vendar pa raziskave OECD (PIAAC) kažejo, da je funkcionalna pismenost – sposobnost razumevanja kompleksnih besedil – nižja, približno 80–85 %, kar pa ni neposredno primerljivo z osnovnim kazalnikom pismenosti v Iranu.

Primerjava

ZDA imajo višjo splošno pismenost zaradi daljše tradicije univerzalnega obveznega izobraževanja. Iran pa je v zadnjih desetletjih dosegel izjemen napredek, zlasti med mlajšimi generacijami, kjer so ravni pismenosti že skoraj enake kot v razvitih državah.

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If the United States cannot, either through direct denial or military coercion, suppress Iran’s attacks on its own assets and those of its allies and protectorates, that would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States. If the US declares mission accomplished whilst the Iranians are still firing their weapons at the oil monarchies, US military bases, Israel, and, above all, if Hormuz is still closed, that would constitute an unambiguous strategic defeat for the United States.

By the same token, if Iran can continue its attacks and keep Hormuz closed despite whatever the US throws at it, until such a time as the US offers a ceasefire, it would’ve succeeded in reestablishing deterrence. That would constitute a strategic victory for Iran. This is not a definitional question; it is a question of the perception of adversaries, third parties, and disinterested analysts. The Western media spin won’t count; it would just be too blatantly obvious.

As I showed you on Twitter, the mechanics of the drone war are quite daunting.

…

Even in the highly implausible extreme scenario where Iran cannot reconstitute any production sites and the US degrades them at the rate of 90% per month, Iran can still sustain a high rate of fire for four months.

What is the solution to this problem? If Iranian capabilities cannot be degraded for at least four months, the costs to the world economy and the United States would be intolerable. We will see a global inflation shock, global monetary tightening, a food crisis as the fertilizer shock cuts the next crop in half, and almost certainly a global recession. It will destroy the Trump presidency; it will destroy the GOP for a generation; and it would finally end the entrapment of the United States by its junior geopolitical ally.

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Hormuška ožina zaprta že deveti dan. Svetovno gospodarstvo je pred dogodkom, ki je lahko največji energetski šok v sodobni zgodovini. Ne govorimo o običajni motnji v dobavi, temveč o zaprtju ene ključnih arterij globalnega energetskega sistema. Skozi Hormuško ožino vsak dan potuje približno 20 milijonov sodov nafte, kar predstavlja okoli 20 % svetovne porabe nafte, ter približno 20 % svetovne trgovine z utekočinjenim plinom (LNG). Če ta tok obstane, se svet v nekaj dneh znajde v položaju, kjer se iz globalnega trga nenadoma umakne petina ključnega energenta. In prav to se zdaj dogaja.

Cena nafte se je v zadnjih dneh dramatično povečala. Včeraj, 8. marca 2026, so se cene na svetovnih trgih gibale med 107 in 109 dolarji za sod. Ameriški benchmark WTI je bil na ravni okoli 108–109 dolarjev za sod, mednarodni benchmark Brent pa približno med 107 in 109 dolarji. Gre za enega najhitrejših cenovnih skokov v sodobni zgodovini naftnih trgov. V primerjavi s prejšnjim tednom, po začetku vojne proti Iranu, ko so se cene gibale približno med 65 in 75 dolarji za sod, to pomeni rast za več kot 40 do 60 % v manj kot 10 dneh. V zadnjem tednu so cene narasle za približno 28 do 35 %, kar je največji tedenski skok za WTI od leta 1983. Analitiki opozarjajo, da bi lahko daljše zaprtje Hormuške ožine potisnilo cene proti 120 ali celo 150 dolarjem za sod.

Toda bistvo problema ni le cena. Bistvo je fizična razpoložljivost energije. Če energija izgine, se ustavi gospodarstvo.

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