To je star rek v financah – finančni trgi lahko ostanejo iracionalni dlje, kot lahko gospodarstvo ostane solventno. V tem konkretnem primeru je razlika seveda v tem, da Iran ni iracionalen, pač pa se racionalno bori za svoje preživetje. Da ga ne doleti usoda Iraka, Libije, Sirije, Venezuele itd.

Natanko to se bo zgodilo,  Gre za inovativen in eleganten pristop Irana k poplačilu vojne škode v času te vojne. Način, s katerim bi se lahko strinjale tudi ZDA in zalivske države, saj je sicer Iran zahteval plačilo vojne škode neposredno od njih. Za zalivske države je to tudi neprimerno boljši “deal” kot Trumpov predlog (kolikor je verjeti medijskim zapisom, naj bi Trump od zalivskih držav zahteval plačilo 5,000 milijard $, da nadaljuje vojno z Iranom in 2,500 milijard $, da preneha z vojno).

Gre za potencialno zelo velike (in permanentne) fiskalne prihodke iranske države. Ob pristojbini 2 mio $ za ladjo in 120 ladij dnevno, to pomeni 280 mio $ dnevnih prilivov za Iran, na letni ravni pa 87.5 milijard $. Glede na to, da nekatere večje ladje plačujejo tudi po 4 mio $ za prehod, lahko računamo, da bo povprečna pristojbina za ladjo okrog 3 mio $. Kar pomeni 360 mio $ dnevno za iranski proračun oziroma dobrih 131 milijard $ letno.

Kdor je od napovedovanega govora ameriškega predsednika Donalda Trumpa v sredo zvečer stavil na deeskalacijo in ameriški umik iz vojne v Iranu, se je uštel. Trump je z napovedjo, da bo z močnim bombardiranjem Irance »poslal nazaj v kameno dobo, kamor spadajo« napovedal efektivni globalni gospodarski kolaps.

Dejstvo je, da ZDA vojaško ne morejo poraziti Irana. Iran je ogromna gorata trdnjava s 100 milijoni prebivalcev, zaprta iz vseh strani z visokimi gorskimi verigami, na kateri so si doslej vsi polomili zobe. Rimski cesar Valerijan pred skoraj 2.300 leti, ki je bil z vojsko okoli 60–70 tisoč vojakov poražen s strani perzijskega kralja Šapurja (Valerijan je bil ujet živ, umrl je v perzijskem ujetništvu, njegovo kožo naj bi ustrojili in obesili na zid). In nazadnje, ko se je iraški napad na Iran leta 1980, kjer je Sadamova vojska štela med 200 in 240 tisoč vojakov, končal z iraškim umikom in v kateri je umrlo po ocenah med 105 in 200 tisoč iraških vojakov.

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Solarni paneli, vetrnice in baterije so mrtvi rokav energetike. Zaradi nizke energetske gostote in zaradi njihove občasnosti (odvisnost od dnevnega in sezonskega cikla, odvisnost od vremena).

A gallon of jet fuel contains about 34 kWh of energy and weighs roughly 6 pounds. A lithium-ion battery storing the same energy weighs about 250 pounds.

That density gap defines modern systems.

Aviation runs on jet fuel.

Shipping runs on bunker fuel.

Agriculture runs on diesel.

Nobody wages war over solar panels and turbines.

Liquid fuels deliver high energy in compact form.

Batteries do not.

This is simple physics. Not “climate denial”.

Ugotavljam, da ja najlažji način nekaj povedati, če ljudem pokažeš zadeve na vizualni način. Torej:

Evropa od sredine 1990-ih strukturno – glede rasti produktivnosti – zaostaja za ZDA.  Ker je stopnja gosdpodarske rasti vsota stopnje rasti produktivnosti in stopnje rasti prebivalstva (dY = dY/L + dL) to pomeni, da ob stagniranju demografije EU zaradi nizke (in relativno nižje stopnje rasti produktivnosti od ZDA in ostalih držav) zaostaja tudi glede gospodarske rasti.

Če za Japonsko govorimo, da se nahaja v izgubljenem desetletju (ki traja že 35 let), kje se potem nahaja EU, ki zaostaja celo za Japonsko?

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The US will not formally leave Nato. In any case, this is not necessary for the White House to cause irreparable damage to the alliance. Beyond casting credible doubt about Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, the US President can also refuse to share intelligence with Nato partners — and with Ukraine. Trump can put a halt on weapons deliveries, and restrict the export of security-related technologies like Joe Biden did with China. Unlike China, Europe is not in a position to invent its own digital technologies.

EU leaders don’t seem to have thought through this course of action. At most, they have notational strategies, but there is a total absence of European-wide strategic thinking, especially in matters of security and energy. Had the EU been serious about strategic autonomy, leaders would have pooled their procurement and developed defence strategies which aren’t driven by industrial interests. They would have adopted a common energy policy, and struck diversified strategic partnerships with raw material importers. None of this is possible without a political and fiscal union. And if this is politically unrealistic, then surely it is also unrealistic for the EU to trigger a split in the transatlantic alliance.

Vir: Wolfgang Münchau, UnHerd

V dnevnih pregledih blagovnih borz se tolažimo, da cene nafte kljub vojni v Iranu in selektivni odprtosti Hormuške ožine še niso ponorele. Toda pri tem običajno spregledamo, da na borzi vidimo terminske cene nafte za dobave čez 1, 2 ali 3 mesece (in več), ne pa cen za tekoče dobave. No, cene za fizične (takojšnje) dobave so za približno tretjino višje od terminskih cen (učinek backwardation). Denimo, danes je terminska cena Brent nafte za dobave v maju znašala okrog 108, cena za takojšnje dobave pa 141 $/sodček.

Razlog je seveda v tem, da je z vojno v Iranu prišlo do efektivnega izpada 13 do 14 % globalne ponudbe nafte, kar poskušajo distributerji nadoknaditi z nakupi rezervnih količin, ki še obstajajo. Toda te rezerve so se v štirih tednih spraznile, kar se kaže v porastu cene ruske nafte (Urals), ki je celo presegla ceno severnomorske nafte (Brent) in v zapiranju škarij med rotterdamsko in singapursko blagovno borzo. In to seveda pomeni, da bodo kmalu tudi terminske cene nafte za dobave čez 1 mesec (in več) poskočile.

Spodaj je dober opis tega, kaj se dogaja na naftnem trgu in opozorilo na situacijo v času Covida. Takrat smo imel inverzno situacijo, da je povpraševanje po nafti kolapsnilo za 20 % za obdobje enega leta, nakar po Covidnem odpiranju spomladi 2021, ko je povpraševanje po nafti spet poskočilo, ponudba ni uspela dohajati povpraševanja. Cene nafte so ponorele, hkrati s tem pa tudi inflacija.

Jeff Currie of Carlyle went on live television and said the oil market is completely mispriced.

He said futures price crude at around $100 a barrel, but physical oil delivered to Asian refiners is actually costing between $130 and $170.

At one point this month, Oman crude, the benchmark for oil on the free side of the Strait spiked all the way to $173 a barrel.

The paper market and the real world have completely split from each other and Currie was explicit about why that split is dangerous.

He said jet fuel spiked to $230 a barrel in Singapore last week, then the same spike hit Rotterdam at $220 a barrel, then Thailand, then the Philippines, then New Zealand, then Australia.

He called it molecular contagion, a physical shortage virus spreading across global supply hubs one by one.

To understand why that phrase matters, consider what the Strait of Hormuz actually is.

Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day moved through that single 100-mile waterway.

The IEA now says flows have dropped from 20 million barrels per day to what they described as a trickle and Barclays estimates the effective supply loss at 13 to 14 million barrels per day in a prolonged closure scenario.

Currie said there are no more spare barrels in the system.

The price spread between Singapore and Rotterdam which normally tells traders where surplus oil is sitting has completely disappeared and when that spread goes to zero, there is no buffer left anywhere on earth.

He said this supply shock is nearly equal in size to the COVID demand crash, and he reminded viewers what COVID did to global supply chains.

COVID wiped out approximately 20 million barrels per day of demand and fractured supply chains for two full years.

This war has now wiped out a comparable volume of supply and supply chains cannot work from home.

The data behind his warning is already visible.

Middle Eastern crude exports to Asia have collapsed from roughly 19 million barrels per day in February to under 7 million barrels per day in March.

Dubai crude surged past $166 a barrel on March 19, hitting an all-time record and Oman crude crossed $150 for the first time in history just days before.

Meanwhile, Chevron’s CEO and Shell’s CEO both stood up at the CERAWeek conference in Houston and confirmed the same thing Currie said, physical disruptions are now spreading from South Asia into Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and are beginning to reach Europe.

Currie said the reason WTI and Brent paper prices stayed suppressed is that Russian Urals crude rallied 65 to 70 dollars a barrel after sanctions were lifted.

That closed the gap between cheap Russian oil and expensive Western benchmarks.

Once that gap closed, the last pressure valve in the global system shut off and now the entire complex has nowhere to hide.

Štiri točke, ki zvenijo razumno:

1. A definitive and complete cessation of aggression and terrorist attacks;

2. The provision of objective and credible guarantees to prevent any resumption of aggression or war;

3. Full compensation for material and moral damages;

4. Respect for Iran’s legal jurisdiction in the Strait of Hormuz for the purpose of ensuring international maritime security.

Vir: TASS