Zlato pravilo: Ne obmetavaj se s kamni, če živiš v stekleni hiši. Ne zajebavaj se z norimi Hutijci, če ne moreš zaščititi vitalne energetske in transportne infrastrukture.

Savdijci so to enkrat že dojeli, vendar pozabili. Izraelci in Američani pa v konfliktu z Iranci tudi. Le da so Iranci na “very next level”, česar se Izraelci in Američani nočejo zavesti.

There is an old saying that people who live in glass houses should not throw stones. Saudi Arabia would be wise to remember it as the confrontation with the Houthis escalates.

The problem is not Saudi Arabia’s ability to hit the Houthis. It can, and it can hit them hard. The problem is what comes next.

Saudi Arabia has a great deal to protect: oil facilities, export terminals, airports, ports, desalination plants, and other critical infrastructure. The Houthis do not have to defeat the Saudi military to hurt the Kingdom. They simply have to show that every round of escalation comes with a price.

And this is not the same Houthi organization Saudi Arabia confronted a decade ago. Years of Iranian assistance, technology transfer, training, and local weapons production have significantly improved its missile and drone capabilities. The Houthis have also shown that they are willing to absorb considerable punishment without necessarily changing course.

This is the Saudi dilemma in a nutshell: Riyadh can throw much bigger stones than the Houthis, but it also has far more glass to protect.

That does not mean Saudi Arabia should avoid military action. It means that bombing the Houthis is not, by itself, a strategy. The real test is whether Riyadh can weaken their military capabilities and change the strategic reality on the ground, while protecting its own critical infrastructure and preventing another cycle in which every Saudi escalation produces a Houthi response, followed by another Saudi strike.

If it cannot, Saudi Arabia may once again find that winning individual battles in Yemen is much easier than changing the strategic equation.