Phone Call: Saudis Issue Ultimatum to Trump on Behalf of GCC
The Gulf countries bought time in a cycle where they themselves are negotiating to pay for the war damages to Iran, make concessions, and advance a peace plan.
Amid strong rumors that Netanyahu had already agreed with Trump to resume bombings against Iran, Gulf countries like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates were already working behind the scenes.
Qatar, in particular, had been warning about the imminent risks to its massive infrastructure and natural gas exports. This, however, was not enough to dissuade Trump, who was moving forward with his plan, especially since the two major American natural gas exporting companies are benefiting from the scenario and were donors to Trump’s campaign. The UAE had also been warning about the risks to its facilities, but with little progress.
In the last 72 hours, these countries informed Washington that local intelligence reports confirmed Iran had already mapped oil fields, refineries, and power plants across all GCC members for an immediate counter-attack should the US initiate the bombings, but also to no avail.
It was Mohammed bin Salman who aligned the GCC’s position. On Saturday, he placed a call to Trump and warned that Iran would respond to any bombings by directly attacking the energy infrastructure of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf neighbors. This was nothing Trump and Netanyahu did not already know and had not already ignored in advance when deciding on the attack.
But the Saudi leader went further: on behalf of the GCC, he expressly requested that Trump back down from plans for large-scale attacks against Iranian territory. He directly demanded clarification on Washington and Tel Aviv’s plan of action, arguing that missteps at this juncture would destabilize the global energy market for extended periods. In doing so, he implicitly conveyed two things:
The first is that, if destroyed, the GCC economies would be unable to honor the signed agreements, Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), and long-term structural partnerships celebrated during Trump’s administration, values that range between $2 trillion and $3 trillion. This is not to mention the billions injected directly into the businesses of Donald Trump himself and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
To the wise, it became clear that these resources could be redirected toward investments in other blocs, including the Chinese.
The second is that, if Trump refused the request of the Saudis, acting as spokespersons for the Gulf and pressed ahead, he would be solely responsible for the destruction of local economies and a global economic crisis. Faced with structural disaster in their own territories, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries would close their airspace to American fighter jets and revoke permissions for the use of logistical bases in the region.
It was these two implicit messages that deterred Trump. Everything else he had already evaluated and, nonetheless, decided to proceed with the attack…
DAMIJAN blog 