China: zig zagging

Je Kitajska res na robu prepada in da zdrsne v “past srednje razvitosti”? Je bila njena “zero Covid” politika res neuspešna? Bo stagnacija glede demografije kitajsko gospodarsko rast res drastično znižala?

Michael Roberts zelo učinkovito pobije te “argumente” zahodnih analitikov. Če bi Kitajska uveljavila enake protikovidne ukrepe kot zahodne države, bi bilo število mrtvih tisočkrat večje, tako pa se je Kitajska izognila tako mrtvim kot recesiji.

Demografska stagnacija za Kitajsko še nekaj časa ne bo problem, ker produktivnost povečuje za 4 do 6-krat hitreje od zahodnih držav. Prav tako ni problematilen njen centraliziran investicijsko-gnani model razvoja, saj ta generira bistveno višjo gospodarsko rast ter tehnološko bolj napredno gospodarsko strukturo kot zahodni decentralizirani model potrošniško-gnanega razvoja. Zahdni analitiki in politiki se že vsaj dve desetletji sistematično motijo glede (nadaljevanja) uspešnosti kitajskega razvojnega modela, ki se kar noče sesuti. Najbrž prav zato, ker Kitajska ne sledi zahodnemu modelu razvoja, ki je očitno razvojno bistveno manj uspešen.

“Unfortunately, sections of the Chinese leadership, particularly their economists in the finance sector, accept this annoyingly stupid argument from the Western experts. How can anybody claim that the mature ‘consumer-led’ economies of the G7 have been successful in achieving steady and fast economic growth, or that real wages and consumption growth have been stronger there? Indeed, in the G7 consumption has failed to drive economic growth; and wages have stagnated in real terms over the last ten years (and are now falling), while real wages in China have shot up.”

Michael Roberts Blog

China is in deep trouble. Its zero-COVID policy has failed; the economy has slowed to halt; it now has a falling and fast-ageing population; it is in the midst of a property and debt crisis; so it is heading for a permanent, low productivity growth stagnation like Japan. Xi’s leadership is in crisis as he flails about swinging from one policy to another. And the risk is that the ‘aggressive nationalism’ of the CPC will lead to military action against ‘democratic’ Taiwan, just as Russia did with Ukraine.

That’s the line of the Western economic experts and the media on a daily basis. All these arguments have been raised before and for that matter for the last 20-plus years: namely, that China is about to implode and the CP-control is about to collapse. I have provided balanced answers to all these issues many times before, in particular in a series…

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