The war on inflation

Dilema pred nami:

“Which way will it go? Will Powell, Draghi and Bailey be mini-Volckers or will they step back from the conflict and opt for fewer rate hikes and be forced to live with higher inflation? Either way, it suggests that inflation globally will not subside until a new slump emerges, signalling that the central bank war on inflation has been lost.”

Dejstvo je, da centralna banka lahko zaustavi inflacijski del v pojavu stagflacije. Nima sicer zdravila za vzroke stagflacije. Ne more povečati ponudbe energentov in ključnih inputov za proizvodnjo (od surovin do čipov), katerih pomanjkanje je privedlo do dramatičnega porasta cen in posledičnega zmanjšanja trenda gospodarske aktivnosti. Lahko pa tako močno dvigne obrestno mero, da ta postane realno zelo pozitivna. S čimer pobije investicije in zasebno porabo, s tem pa gospodarsko aktivnost ter posledično prizemlji inflacijo.

Torej centralna banka lahko zatre inflacijski del v pojavu stagflacije. Toda na enak način, kot če bi zatrli koloradske hrošče tako, da bi na krompirjeva polja vrgli napalm in jih požgali. No, s to Volckerjevo napalm metodo se bodo FED, BoE in kasneje še ECB spravili na zatiranje inflacije.

Michael Roberts Blog

The Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds agonisingly on with more dying and displaced and with further destruction of Ukrainian cities, farms and homes. Back in the major economies, there is another war brewing: the war on inflation.

Inflation of consumer prices are now at 30-40 year highs with more to come. The COVID pandemic slump and now the Ukraine conflict has driven energy and food prices up to record highs. The war in Ukraine has gone global. Spiking commodity prices are on track to see theirsharpest rises since 1970, sending a shock wave of suffering across the world as the prices of essential goods every human needs to survive are surging upwards. Wheat prices are up 60% since February. Food prices arenow higherthan during the global food crisis of 2008, whichpushed 155 million peopleinto extreme poverty.

And the price inflation in these key…

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One response

  1. In his latest letter to investors, the CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, said :

    “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades As a result, a large-scale reorientation of supply chains will INHERENTLY BE INFLATIONARY…

    Če to reče človek, ki direktno kontrolira 4.000 milijard plus USD naložb, je verjetno nekaj teže v teh besedah.

    Ne samo large scale-scale reorientation of supply chains” ampak tudi ekspanzivna monetarna politika, da dolgoletnega deficitarnega financiranja proračunov niti ne omenjamo. K temu dodamo še demografsko kontrakcijo in staranje prebivalstva, “short supply” of commodities vseh vrst in ožanje svetovnih trgov zaradi nove delitve sveta.

    Pa imamo perfect storm.

    Tisti, ki smo “iz šestdeset i neke” ali starejši, ki se še dobro spomnimo Yu inflacije, bomo morali počasi zloščiti naše znanje in izkušnje s spopadanjem z inflacijo.

    Navsezadnje, redkokdaj se je dalo tako dobro in na hitro zaslužiti kot ravno takrat.

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