China at a turning point?

To dogajanje na Kitajskem močno spominja na Japonsko leta 1991. Dileme za vlado (bailout bankrotiranih podjetij ali stečaj) so enake. Japonska vlada je takrat čakala, predolgo, podjetja so se spremenila v zombie podjetja, banke v zombie banke in celotno gospodarstvo je šlo v hibernacijo. V dolgi spanec, kjer vztraja še danes. Že 30 let je zombificirano.

Bo Kitajska sledila japonski v hibernacijo ali pa vseeno uporabila vso municijo, ki jo ima na voljo? Do sedaj je kitajska vlada izjemno dobro menedžirala krize, boljše kot vse zahodne države skupaj, če je to kak pokazatelj za bodoče ravnanje…

Michael Roberts Blog

The debt problems afflicting China’s real estate market deepened this week after another property developer defaulted on its bonds and the world’s most heavily indebted property group Evergrande extended a suspension of its shares into a second day without explanation. Fantasia Holdings, a mid-sized developer, that just weeks ago assured investors it had “no liquidity issue”, said in a stock exchange filing that it “did not make the payment” on Monday of a $206m bond maturing that day, triggering a formal default. The default adds to fears that a crisis at Evergrande will spread to include more of China’s property developers, which account for a large portion of the Asian high-yield bond market.

Evergrande missed an interest payment on an offshore bond on September 23, triggering a 30-day grace period before a formal default, and has yet to provide any announcement on the matter.  But even before China Evergrande Group’s…

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