Živeti z virusom in najti ravnovesje med zaščitnimi ukrepi in sprejemljivo stopnjo smrti

Spodaj je dober thread Kaia Kupferschmidta o tem, kako živeti z virusom in balansirati med družbeno še sprejemljivo mero zaščitnih ukrepov in družbeno še sprejemljivo stopnjo smrti zaradi Covid. Samo cepljenje seveda ne daje te stopnje zaščite, da bi vse na polno odprli in se delali, da je virus premagan. Vsaka država bo morala najti nek svoj optimum, vendar bodo vsaj sosednje države morale svoj optimum usklajevati med seboj.

Last week I met Jeremy Farrar in Berlin and since then I’ve kept going over some of what he said, since it seems pretty crucial for the next phase of the pandemic in Europe. So a quick thread

(You can also hear him say some of this in our new @pandemiapodcast episode)

At least in Europe, “what you’re witnessing, I think at the moment is the shift from epidemic/pandemic state into an endemic state”, Farrar said.

“And none of us are really quite sure what that endemic state is going to look like.”

The argument is simple: #SARSCoV2 is clearly not going away any time soon. As vaccines blunt some of the impact of the virus at the societal level, #covid19 may still be terrible and still cause disease and death but maybe at a level society can or will or has to accept.

But what level of disease and death is deemed acceptable and thus what “endemic” looks like is going to differ from society to society. Farrar has been calling for an honest debate about this: “I think all countries are going to have to have this debate.”

This goes far beyond Europe, of course. “If you are New Zealand, I don’t know how you plot your exit from this” Farrar told me. “China’s in an even harder position, because it’s got 1.4 billion people and its vaccines are not as effective as the vaccines used in Europe.”

The problem: “I think that politicians across the world are sort of pretending you can have your cake and eat it: You can have zero deaths, no control measures, vaccinate if you want to or not vaccinate – and it will all end.

I just don’t think that’s realistic.”

This is a crucial point: A country with a given vaccination coverage will have to accept either a certain level of death or a certain level of restrictions (or a mix).

Different countries may end up with different set points for endemic #covid19.

The countries that are likely worst off in the early part of this endemic phase are those like US where immunisations AND control measures like masking have become polarized.

With low immunization levels and few restrictions, they are stuck with high levels of disease and death.

I asked Farrar about the situation in the UK where about 100 people were dying a day of #covid19. What level of #covid19 deaths did he think the UK specifically might have to accept?

He said he was for lockdowns last year, “because the health consequences were so profound, 1000 deaths a day, 1200 deaths a day in the UK. It was just unacceptable, in my view, and the health system came very close to collapse …

But we’re in a different world with vaccination.”

Without vaccines, there would be >1000 deaths a day in UK, he says.”That’s how dramatic the impact has been.”

But: “We’re going to have to accept a certain number of ill health and deaths from COVID, as we do for malaria, as we do from flu. The question is, what is that level?”

So what number: “I think around 100 deaths a day, throughout the year, 30,000 deaths a year, in the current situation with the current vaccines, current treatments, current capacity within the system, I think is a level that would have to in the end be acceptable.”

There are two big problems with all this, of course, that he acknowledges:

    1. Long-term sequelae of #covid19 (long covid)
    2. Letting the virus replicate means letting new variants evolve

So what are the key takeaways?

    1. Vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate: That is what gets you out of the worst of this
    2. If you don’t vaccinate enough, you will end up with tough measures or a lot of deaths, probably both.
    3. Be honest about this in public.

And, on the global scale:

Share the vaccines, so that all countries can vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate.

Every country needs to protect the most vulnerable.

Vir: Kai Kupferschmidt (@kakape)

2 responses

  1. Še en propagandni članek.

    …vaccinate vaccinate, vaccinate….

    Kot mantra. Do that or else…

    Kaj pa Indija in Ivermectin?

    Ste se kada vprašali zakaj se nič več ne govori o Indiji? Grozna rast okužb potem pa ….UPAD ZA VEČ kot 90% v ključnih indijskih državah, ki so uporabljale ivermectin v primerjavi z indijsko zvezno državo Tamil Nadu (3X PORAST SMRTNOSTI), ki je namesto ivermectina uporabljala Remdesivir (tako kot npr. Slovenija). Glej:

    https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/thedesertreview.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/f1/ff1226ec-fc78-11eb-a4c5-6f81a2e694b3/6116dcbd066b9.image.jpg?resize=936%2C542

    https://www.thedesertreview.com/news/national/indias-ivermectin-blackout-part-ii/article_a0b6c378-fc78-11eb-83c0-93166952f425.html

    Izkušnja z indijsko državo Kerala, ki ima primerljivo višje stopnje cepljenja kot druge indijske države vendar ne uporablja ivermectina

    https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/indias-ivermectin-blackout—part-iii-the-lesson-of-kerala/article_ccecb97e-044e-11ec-9112-2b31ae87887a.html

    https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/indias-ivermectin-blackout—part-iv-keralas-vaccinated-surge/article_8a8c481c-09d3-11ec-a51c-fb063e1a3e3b.html

    Za tiste, ki jih zanima trenutno stanje in učinkovitost kliničnih študij o ivermectinu:

    https://ivmmeta.com

    Učinkovitost ivermectin-a v kombinaciji z ostalimi terapevtiki, vitaminom D3, cink-om…. je taka, da se zlahka primerja z (ne)učinkovitostjo cepiv. Gre za “low risk, low cost” profilakso in terapijo , ki v celoti eliminira kakršnokoli potrebo po cepljenje proti Covid-19.

    In to je največji greh tako ivermectina kot vitamina D – prepoceni so. Na njih se ne da delati nekaj 100% dobičkov tako kot pri cepivih.

    Mogoče bo kakšna korist od vsega tega. Mogoče bo vsaj en del ljudi spregledalo.

  2. glej dodatno informacijo:

    https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/the-ivermectin-deworming-hoax—part-ii-eric-clapton-s-human-rights-warning/article_284902bc-14be-11ec-8d43-43e98275cff8.html

    Other Indian states also decided to go “all-in” on Ivermectin, and they did exceedingly well. So, on September 10, these are the numbers of the other Ivermectin-using Indian states.

    This data was compiled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering – the JHU CSSE.

    https://systems.jhu.edu/

    On September 10, 2021, Uttar Pradesh, a population of 240 million, saw nine new cases, or about one for every 24 million people. One death. Delhi saw only 36 new cases and ZERO deaths. Bihar, a population of 127 million, saw 12 new cases, or one per 10 million population. ZERO deaths.

    In stark contrast, we see Kerala, a population of 34 million people, with 25,010 new cases on September 10, or nearly one per thousand. Deaths are 177 out of the entire country’s total of 308. Thus, more than half of all of India’s September 10 COVID deaths occurred in Kerala.

    This debacle occurred despite Kerala being among the most vaccinated states in all of India. The Chief Minister proudly reports that 93 percent of Kerala’s residents over 45 have one vaccination while 50 percent are fully vaccinated.

    https://m.economictimes.com/news/india/kerala-to-complete-vaccination-of-all-above-18-years-by-september-30-cm-pinarayi-vijayan/articleshow/86100022.cms

    Like Kerala, the United Kingdom is “all-in” on vaccines and “all-out” against Ivermectin. Notice the remarkable similarity of the United Kingdom COVID graph when compared with Kerala’s.

    There is a double rise in the graph of the Delta Surge. The United Kingdom, a country of 68 million, had 36,734 new cases on September 10. That works out to about one case per two thousand population. They could be Kerala’s twin in more ways than one. Similar cases per thousand, and similar policy against Ivermectin, only the United Kingdom has more vaccinations with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated.

    It makes one wonder why both the UK and Kerala are failing so miserably despite high vaccination rates.

    Dr. Peter McCullough explains why. He notes that the Delta variant is a heavily mutated version of the original SARS-CoV-2. Because the vaccines were designed and tested against the original virus, not the Delta variant, the vaccines perform poorly against the current strain. Cases in the UK and Kerala are all Delta; thus, their poor performance against Delta is no surprise.

    In this interview with Dr. Al Johnson, Dr. McCullough reports that the studies show that within highly vaccinated countries like Iceland, Israel, and Singapore, up to 65% of hospitalized cases are fully vaccinated. Up to 75% of all breakthrough infections occur in the fully vaccinated. See mark 4:00.

    Dr. McCullough explains that because of this, early outpatient treatment with a cocktail of Ivermectin, HCQ, and nutraceuticals is essential.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.06.21259924v1

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7410805/

    Any review on this subject would be incomplete without mentioning the most influential peer-reviewed analyses. These were published independently by Dr. Pierre Kory, Dr. Tess Lawrie, and Dr. Andrew Hill, all highly credible experts in their fields. The data reflect massive and reproducible reductions in infections and deaths in COVID-19 using Ivermectin.

    https://academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ofid/ofab358/6316214

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34145166/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8088823/

    In addition, Dr. Kory and the FLCCC have updated their Ivermectin data as of August 29, 2021.

    Click to access SUMMARY-OF-THE-EVIDENCE-BASE-FINAL.pdf

    In

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