Makrorevolucija (3): Ko IMF na pomoč kliče Keynesa

Gita Gopinath, glavna ekonomistka IMF (sicer pa profesorica na Harvardu) je v današnji kolumni v Financial Timesu izbrisala 50 let “razvoja v vzvratno smer” (neoklasične, neomonetaristične) makroekonomije in uporabila snov srednje ravni učbeniške makroe, ne (več) samo razvitih držav, pač pa globalno gospodarstvo, nahajajo v Keynesovi “likvidnostni pasti” (kot jo sicer predavamo v IS-LM modelu). Se pravi, monetarna politika je za vse standarde nepojmljivo ekspanzivna, obrestne mere so blizu ničle, pa vendar se gospodarstvo ne premakne nikamor, ker vseh teh enormnih količin likvidnosti zaradi hude negotovosti nihče noče uporabiti. Še več, centralne banke bodo zaradi ekstremno nizke inflacije in celo deflacije prisiljene k “ustvarjanju” negativnih obrestnih mer, da bi spodbudile zadolževanje.

In kot pravi standardna makroekonomija v IS-LM modelu, je v takšnem okolju edina učinkovita politika fiskalna. Ergo, Gopinathova poziva države naj se zadolžujejo in začnejo deliti neposredne transferje prebivalstvu in gospodarstvu, naj z javnim denarjem investirajo v zdravstvo ter v zeleno, digitalno in inkluzivno (pravično) prestrukturiranje gospodarstev. To bo za seboj potegnilo tudi zasebne naložbe v iste sektorje in s tem rezultiralo v bolj robustnem in zelenem okrevanju.

Amen.

No, kdo bo neomonetaristom / neoklasikom in neo(kvazi)keynesiancem povedal, da je 50 let njihovega “razvoja v vzvratno smer” šlo v nič? Pa vse te silne Nobelove nagrade za danes ničvredne teorije (ki bazirajo na racionalnih pričakovanjih ultra racionalnih individulistov). Ko “zagusti”, pač na pomoč kličemo državo; ko se racionalni individualisti v strahu skrijejo vsak v svoj kot, angažiramo kolektivno akcijo.*

For the first time, in 60 per cent of the global economy — including 97 per cent of advanced economies — central banks have pushed policy interest rates below 1 per cent. In one-fifth of the world, they are negative. With little room for further rate cuts, central banks have deployed unconventional measures.

Despite this effort, persistently low inflation — and in some cases intermittent deflation — has raised the spectre of further monetary easing to achieve negative real rates if another shock strikes. It has led to the inescapable conclusion that the world is in a global liquidity trap, where monetary policy has limited effect. We must agree on appropriate policies to climb out.

Fiscal policy must play a leading role in the recovery. Governments can productively counter the shortfall in aggregate demand. Credit facilities installed by monetary authorities can only assure the power to lend but not to spend, as US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has noted. Fiscal authorities can actively support demand through cash transfers to support consumption and large-scale investment in medical facilities, digital infrastructure and environment protection. These expenditures create jobs, stimulate private investment and lay the foundation for a stronger and greener recovery. Governments should look for high-quality projects, while strengthening public investment management to ensure that projects are competitively selected and resources are not lost to inefficiencies.

Many economies can lock in historically low interest rates now and keep debt servicing costs low. The IMF’s latest projections are for economic growth to increase at a faster rate than debt service costs in many countries — and by an even bigger margin in absolute terms than before the pandemic. This implies that debt service costs could fall. That would provide room in many economies for investment in inclusive, strong and sustainable growth, without compromising debt sustainability or bond market access.

Vir: Gita Gopinath, Financial Times

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* Seveda pa je treba biti pri tem zelo pazljiv. Tukaj nikakor ne gre za univerzalno ekonomsko-politično zdravilo za vse bolezni, pač pa za specifično zdravilo. Keynesianska makroekonomija je pač namenjena za stabilizacijo gospodarstev, ki jih prizadane velik povpraševalni šok, kot se je zgodil v razvitih državah po letu 2008. Bognedaj, da to zdravilo uporabljate, ko se gospodarstvo nahaja blizu polnih kapacitet, saj bi to samo sprožilo pregrevanje in visoko inflacijo. Tako kot aspirina ne uporabljamo za zdravljenje raka ali kemoterapije za ublažitev glavobola. Zdravniki to vedo in tudi makroekonomisti bi to morali (tudi če imajo Nobelovo nagrado).

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