Masovno testiranje je pomembno, ker tudi posamezniki brez simptomov širijo okužbo

Research published last week by Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University in New York and his colleagues analysed the course of the epidemic in 375 Chinese cities between 10 January, when the epidemic took off, and 23 January, when containment measures such as travel restrictions were imposed.

The study concluded that 86 per cent of cases were “undocumented” – that is, asymptomatic or had only very mild symptoms (Science). The researchers also analysed case data from foreign nationals who were evacuated from the city of Wuhan, where the first cases were seen, and found a similar proportion of asymptomatic or very mild cases.

Such undocumented cases are still contagious and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only 55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about.

A project in Italy has also found many symptomless cases. When everybody was tested in a town called Vò, one of the hardest-hit in the country, 60 per cent of people who tested positive were found to have no symptoms.

Vir: New Scientist

3 responses

  1. Slovenija je glede testiranja med vodilnimi, per capita imamo več testiranih kot Južna Koreja, ki se jo ves čas omenja kot nekaj posebnega. Tudi informacija o odločitvi, da se odslej testira manj, je bila očitno napačna. Vprašanje pa, ali testiramo tudi asimptomatične. Verjetno je smiselsno, da bi to počeli vsaj za zdravstveno osebje?

    • Podatek o tem, da smo pri nas izvedli več testov na osebo kot v Južni Koreji, je resničen, vendar:
      – V Južni Koreji je bilo testiranje osredotočeno (2/3 testov!) na versko skupino https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shincheonji_Church_of_Jesus , ki so bili najbolj rizična skupina za širjenje okužbe. To je tako, kot da bi pri nas testirali vse, ki so bili na počitnicah v Italiji, in to v nekaj dneh po vrnitvi domov.
      – V Južni Koreji sta bili 2 žarišči, v katerih je bilo število pozitivnih večje, kot je pri nas: Daegu (2644/1M) in Gyeongbuk (472/1M). Obe regiji imata prebivalcev le malo več kot Slovenija – Slovenijo pa zaradi večjega števila vnosov iz Italije v celoti smatram za žarišče.

      Južna Koreja torej je posebna, ker je brez testirne triaže (testirali so tudi povsem zdrave!) poiskala VSE okužene v skupini glavnih potencialnih prenašalcev. Tudi zato so izbruh izjemno uspešno omejili.

      Ko enkrat testiraš samo bolne, zato da veš, kakšno bolnišnično oskrbo in zdravljenje jim odrediti, za širjenjem okužbe zamujaš vsaj 9 dni (pri večini 5 dni inkubacijske dobe in 4 dni bolezni do odhoda k zdravniku) in zgrešiš večino okuženih, ki zdravnika in testa ne potrebujejo.

      Žrtev / 1M prebivalcev bomo imeli pa že jutri več Južna Koreja. Zakaj naš zgled nista Norveška ali pa še bližja italijanska pokrajina Veneto? Skoraj enkrat več testov / 1M prebivalcev so opravili kot mi.

  2. Podobne rezultate objavljajo iz študije o ladji Diamond Princess, kjer so tudi testirali vse potnilke:

    The results of testing of passengers and crew on board the Diamond Princess demonstrated a high proportion (46.5%) of asymptomatic infections at the time of testing. Available statistical models of the Diamond Princess outbreak suggest that 17.9% of infected persons never developed symptoms

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

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