Nesrečni evro pred novo recesijo

Britanski The Economist si lahko privošči to izjavo, da je “bil evro ekonomski polom“. In v veliki meri ima prav, saj so države z evrom v 20 letih obstoja skupne valute dosegale slabšo rast od članic EU brez evra, da o ostalih razvitih državah ne govorimo. Ampak o fundamentalnih razlogih za to, zakaj evro konsistentno vleče navzdol države, ki so članice skupne monetarne unije, v teh krajih ni popularno govoriti. O verskih dogmah se pač ne sme razpravljati.

The euro has been an economic fiasco. GDP growth in the euro area has lagged behind that in other advanced economies, and in the European Union as a whole, throughout its life—before the financial crisis, during the global recession and its euro-area encore, and even during the recent #euroboom. Perhaps the area would have done as badly without the single currency. But attempts to estimate euro-zone performance relative to a counterfactual world sans euro suggest not. The past decade has been especially brutal. A list of the world’s worst performers in terms of real GDP per person since 2008 contains places suffering geopolitical meltdowns—plus the euro-area periphery. Greece has been outgrown by Sudan and Ukraine. Cyprus and Italy have been beaten by Brazil and Iran; France and the Netherlands by Britain.

GDP data scheduled for release later this month are likely to confirm that in the final three months of 2018 Italy’s economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter, satisfying one of the technical definitions of a recession. Germany appears to have escaped recession, but only just. The euro area, formed in January 1999, may pass its anniversary on the brink of another downturn.

Vir: The Economist

One response

  1. Na jugu ga vsi sovrazijo, kljub temu pa ga noben noce zapustit. Cipras, Salvini, vsi pljuvajo po evru, na koncu pa ugotovijo, da morajo z njim zivet, ker vejo da bo njihovim volilcem tezko znova uvalit vsakoletne devalvacije. Brexitovci pa naj lepo gredo v Sudan, Brazilijo in Iran sklepat nove trgovinske posle, good luck with that…

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