Evro kot grob združene Evrope (2)

To je bila generalna kritika projekta evra s strani Martina Feldsteina (iz leta 1997): evro bo pripeljal do konfliktov v Evropi, ker se članice ne bodo mogle dogovoriti o ciljih, in konflikti se bodo povečali, ko bo prišlo do krize v posamičnih državah:

Monnet was mistaken… If EMU does come into existence, as now seems increasingly likely, it will change the political character of Europe in ways that could lead to conflicts in Europe…What are the reasons for such conflicts? In the beginning there would be important disagreements among the EMU member countries about the goals and methods of monetary policy. These would be exacerbated whenever the business cycle raised unemployment in a particular country or group of countries. These economic disagreements could contribute to a more general distrust among the European nations.

Vir: Martin Feldstein, Foreign Affairs (1997)

No, to pa se je zgodilo prejšnji konec tedna na maratonskih pogajanjih v Bruslju o možnosti tretjega programa pomoči Grčiji:

In an interview, Donald Tusk, the European Council president who brokered the summit deal and an unabashed fan of German conservative economic thinking, said he was taken aback when members of the European Parliament last week broke out in thunderous cheers after Mr Tsipras reminded them Germany had received debt relief after the second world war, something Berlin was now reluctant to grant Athens.

“In fact, it looked like an anti-German demonstration when it came to the left side of the chamber and the radical right,” Mr Tusk recalled.

Even the most internationalist of Mr Hollande’s inner circle now believe Berlin’s approach in the Greek talks has altered the nature of the eurozone project.

“The eurozone is going through a war of religion with a northern Europe that’s Calvinist and that doesn’t want to forgive the sinners, and a Catholic Europe in the south that wants to turn the page,” said Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister and former Rothschild banker.

Even German politicians from Ms Merkel’s own political family fear that the bad blood engendered from the negotiations could leave their country isolated in Europe.

“I feel sorry about the fact we are coming back to the old stereotypes, or trying to find who to blame,” said Manfred Weber, an MEP from Ms Merkel’s Bavarian CSU sister party who leads the centre-right bloc in the European Parliament. “This is wrong. Germany is not the bad guy in the game now.”

But Germany’s partners are already manoeuvring against it. In the early hours of Monday morning, with Greece’s place in the euro in the balance, Mr Hollande wandered on to a terrace outside the Brussels summit building. He caught sight of his Italian counterpart in nearby meeting room and tapped on the window.

“Cher Matteo,” Mr Hollande said, according to two officials present. “What are we going to do?”

The two leaders vowed they would band together and ensure Grexit would not occur. “At that moment we understood that Italy and France could unite and the less radical position could prevail,” said an Italian official.

With the help of Mr Tusk, Mr Hollande and Mr Renzi may have thwarted Mr Schäuble’s push for a temporary Grexit this week. But for how long?

Vir: Financial Times

Razlike med evrskimi državami so preprosto prevelike in s tem tudi različnost preferenc glede pravih ekonomskih politik. Brez politične, fiskalne in transferne unije se bodo ta nesoglasja samo še bolj radikalizirala. Že med sedanjimi nacionalnimi političnimi elitami, kjer se že danes tvorita dva nasprotna pola: severni in južni; protestantski in katoliški; ali levičarski in ortodoksno desničarski.

Toda trajanje krize in poglabljanje nesoglasij daje krila vzponu skrajnih – levih in desnih – političnih gibanj, ki pa bodo imela bistveno manj razumevanja za interese drugih članic in čuta solidarnosti, bistveno manj zgodovinskega spomina in bistveno manj sentimenta glede skupnih evropskih vrednot.

Izhod je torej bodisi v bolj tesni integraciji bodisi v vrnitvi k bolj ohlapni, predevrski integraciji. Prva se, iz političnega vidika, ne zdi verjetna, zato je druga trenutno bolj smiselna.

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