Zakaj Grčija ne sme popustiti nemškemu mobingu

Kot pravi britanski ekonomist Philippe Legrain v Foreign Affairs, pri superiornosti grških argumentov ne gre samo za moralno plat, pač pa za zdravo ekonomsko logiko. Evropske politike v času krize pod diktatom nemškega merjantilizma so se izkazale kot katastrofalne. Evrsko območje je sedem let po krizi v slabšem stanju, kot je bilo ameriško v času velike depresije v 1930- letih in slabše kot japonsko v času “izgubljenega desetletja” v 1990- let.

Grčija simbolno rešuje Evropo pred nemškim samouničevalnim merkantilizmom.

Had the Varoufakis plan been put forward by an investment banker, it would have been perceived as perfectly reasonable. Yet in the parallel universe inhabited by Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, such demands are seen as “irresponsible”: Greece must be bled dry to service its foreign creditors in the name of European solidarity.

While the Greek government is certainly in the right, there is still fear that the might of the German government will prevail. The Greek government may run out of cash — perhaps as soon as next month. Faced with a run on Greek banks, the ECB could deny the country’s central bank the right to provide them with the emergency liquidity that they need to survive. At that point, compromise — surrender — could impose itself.

Or not. The belief that Greece has little leverage in its negotiations with eurozone authorities is false. If no agreement is reached and Greece is illegally forced out of the euro by Berlin and Frankfurt, it would doubtless default on all its debts to both eurozone governments and the ECB, as well as the Bank of Greece’s Target 2 liabilities. Speculation would soon start about which country might be next to exit the euro — Portugal? — and the single currency would suddenly look eminently revocable.

Do Berlin and Frankfurt really want to push Athens over the brink? I doubt it. Especially since, freed of its external debt and an overvalued exchange rate, Greece would doubtless be growing again once the immediate chaos subsided. After all, even an economy as badly managed as Argentina started growing again only a year after the government defaulted and junked its dollar peg in 2002.

Vir: Philippe Legrain, Foreign Affairs

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