Današnji Economic Outlook OECD daje zelo jasno sporočilo (ki je lepo zajeto v spodnji sliki): evro je očitno prekletstvo držav. Evropske države brez evra rastejo hitreje, še celo Japonska raste bistveno hitreje.

(s klikom na sliko pridete do celotne prezentacije)

Razlog za ta negativni učinek evra na rast je seveda jasen: skupna monetarna politika in omejena možnost samostojne fiskalne politike državam v času recesije ne dajeta potrebne fleksibilnosti, da bi lahko zagnale rast. Evro v sedanjem institucionalnem okviru je enak temu, kot da bi gladiatorju zavezali obe roki in nato nan spustili sestradanega leva.

Zato je današnji nasvet OECD, ki ga skrbi globalna stabilnost in rast, zlo preprost: članice evro območja naj upočasnijo (prenehajo) s fiskalno konsolidacijo in sprejmejo ukrepe za spodbuditev rasti. Nasploh pa Italija in Francija ne bi smeli zniževati proračunskega deficita, medtem ko bi Nemčija morala povečati javne izdatke, EU kot celota pa sprejeti ukrepe za spodbuditev javnih investicij in nekatere strukturne reforme.

Ta nasvet je seveda na las podoben temu, kar priporoča standardna makroekonomija državam, ki zapadejo v krizo prenizkega agregatnega povpraševanja in kar trobimo že kar nekaj let. Edina nenavadnost je le v tem, da so mnoge mednarodne inštitucije do tega spoznanja prišle tako pozno. Kot da bi njihovi glavni ekonomisti prešpricali kurze iz makroekonomije in pozabili na zgodovino. O ideoloških jastrebih v Nemčiji in na domačih tleh pa nima pomena izgubljati besed.

This macroeconomic prognosis leaves us with a keen need for both continued supportive macroeconomic policy, as well as tailored structural reforms to raise both demand and supply throughout the global economy.  The specifics of macroeconomic policy vary somewhat across these economies where growth momentum is building.  Too hasty removal of monetary accommodation or renewed fiscal austerity could down-shift the pace of recovery rather than help it.

With regard to monetary policy, the relationship between monetary ease and increased real business investment has been quite weak, even disconnected.  In the United States and the United Kingdom, a premature tightening of financial conditions could put asset prices as well as real investment into reverse.  The additional stimulus announced by the Bank of Japan will bolster asset prices around the globe; with likely gains to real investment, employment, and consumption in Japan. In the euro area and for the global economy as well, intensified monetary support is critical to growth, otherwise ever lower inflation—even deflation—may be down the track.

With regard to fiscal policy, the United States and the euro area as a whole, and specific countries in particular, have already tightened the fiscal belt quite a bit. Fiscal stance going forward needs to balance fiscal sustainability against possible downside effects on short-term growth and confidence, factors that could put the economy into a skid. The characteristics of debt obligations bears close scrutiny, as does the type of fiscal spending and tax choices. Fiscal spending in the near term to support innovation, education, and infrastructure will both support near-term growth, as well as turn back the legacy of low potential output and complement the engines of trade and investment.

Vir: Catherine Mann, OECD Chief Economist