Mario Draghi, predsednik ECB, je julija 2012 na konferenci v Londonu z izjavo “ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” prepričal finančne trge, da se ne splača staviti proti razpadu evro območja. Posledično so upadle špekulacije in cene državnih obveznic. Včeraj je Draghi prišel z novim paketom ukrepov, tokrat proti deflaciji, ki evro območje potiska v japonski stil deflacijske depresije, in izjavo “Are we finished? The answer is no.”

Lahko predlagani ukrepi ECB zaustavijo deflacijo? Kot sem v prejšnjih dnevih in tednih že večkrat napisal, ukrepi ECB ne morejo biti učinkoviti zaradi velike negotovosti med podjetji in potrošniki ter zadolženosti podjetij. Izhod iz deflacije je mogoč le, če nekdo “utiša negotovost“. Torej če nekdo s kredibilnimi ukrepi prepriča podjetja in potrošnike, da se je negativni trend obrnil. V Draghijevi izjavi zato vidim več možnosti za uspeh – prav zaradi učinka na sentimente -, kot pa v njegovih ukrepih. Toda Draghijevi ukrepi ne morejo delovati, dokler mu ne sledi tudi “nekdo drug”, to je dokler države ne bodo efektivno zmanjšale negotovosti s povečanjem javnega trošenja. Torej s fiskalno ekspanzijo.

Šele v kombinaciji ukrepov bodo podjetja začela verjeti v robustno povečanje povpraševanja in začela investirati in zaposlovati, banke pa verjeti, da bodo podjetja s povečanim denarnim tokom sposobna odplačevati novo najete kredite.

Confronted with these perils, the conjuror uttered new magic words: “The governing council is unanimous in its commitment to using all unconventional instruments within its mandate should it become necessary to further address risks of too prolonged a period of low inflation.” These words are hardly punchy, but the import is clear. Besides, he added: “Are we finished? The answer is no.” It sounded a bit like “whatever it takes”.

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Mr Draghi did more than expected and promises still more if necessary. Interest rates could be made even more negative if the ECB thought fit. It might also agree to make large-scale asset purchases. Yet the ECB is battling disturbingly sluggish demand. It would be remarkable if what it has done so far proved enough. If it did it would be because, as was true of the OMT, Mr Draghi has pulled off a benign confidence trick. If he convinced enough people, he might have already achieved his aim. If not, more must come. The will to act is now clear.

Vir: Martin Wolf, Financial Times