Ricardo Hausmann, profesor na Harvardu, sicer pa nekdanji minister za planiranje v Venezueli in glavni ekonomist Interamerican Bank, se sprašuje, zakaj v popolnoma liberaliziranem svetu, ko se sofisticirani proizvodi in ideje prosto pretakajo in je vse mogoče zelo hitro imitirati, manj razvite države ne morejo narediti hitrega tehnološkega preskoka. Ugotavlja, da je za “vsaditev” tehnološkega razvoja potrebno ustrezno razvito domače okolje. Država ne more narediti velikega preskoka naenkrat, pač pa le sekvence majhnih korakov. Za uveljavitev novih tehnologij morajo biti že prej prisotne druge tehnologije, šele nato je možna rekombinacija teh tehnologij in inovacije. Zato je tehnološki in gospodarski razvoj tako zelo postopen.

Likewise, a society cannot simply imitate the idea of Amazon or eBay unless many of its citizens already have access to the Internet, credit cards, and delivery services. In other words, new technologies require the previous diffusion of other technologies.

 

That is why cities, regions, and countries can absorb technology only gradually, generating growth through some recombination of the knowhow that is already in place, maybe with the addition of some component – a bassist to complete a string quartet. But they cannot move from a quartet to a philharmonic orchestra in one fell swoop, because it would require too many missing instruments – and, more important, too many musicians who know how to play them.

 

Progress happens by moving into what the theoretical biologist Stuart Kauffman calls the “adjacent possible,” which implies that the best way to find out what is likely to be feasible in a country is to consider what is already there. Politics may indeed impede technological diffusion; but, to a large extent, technology does not diffuse because of the nature of technology itself.

Vir: Ricardo Hausmann, Project Syndicate