One of the most surprising findings for me was that a 2nd generation immigrant will cost MORE than 1st gen. Why?
1. First gen frequently go back to their country of origin, not 2nd gen
2. Second gen requires childcare & schooling. 1st gen come usually in peak working age pic.twitter.com/i6OKRvbwzB

— Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo) September 16, 2026

This is how you get this map of 1st+2nd generation net cost, if they never go back to their origin country:

Yes, if a Somalian/Ethiopian/Sudanese immigrant to the Netherlands stays in the country, he and his children will cost more than one million euros over their lifetime. pic.twitter.com/PMO56VqO3G

— Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo) September 16, 2026

That data from @KirkegaardEmil is in 2018 prices. @jonatanpallesen brought it to 2025 prices here.

A Somalian costs $23k every year

For orders of magnitude: the German gov offers only $8k for immigrants to leave pic.twitter.com/Pj0RadV82Q

— Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo) September 16, 2026

3. FINLAND
We find similar orders of magnitude in Finland: pic.twitter.com/SJLrNVslt1

— Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo) September 16, 2026

4. PORTUGAL
🇵🇹 has very little MENAPT immigration, so it allows us to see if the broad pattern is respected. Indeed, it is. Western immigrants have a positive net contribution. Immigrants from poorer countries are a net drain on social security pic.twitter.com/T03RqMbCWu

— Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo) September 16, 2026

This is why a country like Switzerland manages to get productive immigration: >70% of immigrants are there for work
Meanwhile, Belgium is catastrophic: It barely has work immigrants! pic.twitter.com/V6m5GvEOHQ

— Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo) September 16, 2026

This is all the fiscal contribution data I could find. It shows how much more information we need—and why countries who receive so much immigration avoid publishing it..

But also, this is not the full picture of the economic contribution of immigrants:

— Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo) September 16, 2026

€10k in taxes. Her employer might have increased its profits by €20k, and pay €4k in taxes. On net, the housekeeper generated €12k in direct + indirect taxes

This is why "net fiscal contribution" is a tricky concept. How net is it really?

So what conclusion can we draw?

— Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo) September 16, 2026

The key factor here is work. So which immigrants work the most? Which ones work the least? This is what I'll publish tomorrow.
After that, I'll share solutions: How can we make immigration better?
Follow me to get it: @tomaspueyo
Or subscribe here: https://t.co/ky2JevTvio

— Tomas Pueyo (@tomaspueyo) September 16, 2026