Ukrainian channel @DrnBmbr analysed data of interceptions of Ukrainian drones by the 3 rings of air defence around Moscow during July, and found that over 1,500 drones were shot down by this massive air defence network.
According to their analysis, during July, in the first and second rings, approximately 1,400 drones (~93%) were shot down. In the 3rd ring, around 100 drones (~6%) were shot down. And in Moscow itself, just one single drone (~0.07%) managed to make it through these three rings, and was intercepted over the city.
However, in June, there were some other locations hit, such as the “Dubna” Space Communications Center, “Wildberries” warehouses, oil depots, and the Moscow Oil Refinery. But considering the fact that Ukraine has launched thousands of drones towards Moscow during this time period, this is an exceptionally high interception rate. Ukrainian drones attempted to breach these defensive rings from all directions, but there are no gaps. And there are no signs of Russia running out of interceptor missiles due to very high production rates.
https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/2085936683527389565
Military observer of the German newspaper Bild, Julian Roepke, a strong supporter of Ukraine, stated that his cautious optimism has turned into despair
“The cautious optimism that still existed on the Ukrainian side at the beginning of summer has practically disappeared. Back in June, many hoped that the increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics in the occupied territories and deep behind Russian lines could seriously weaken the Russian army and halt its offensive. However, these expectations have not yet been fulfilled.
Many Ukrainian servicemen report a significant increase in Russian strikes on positions along the front line and in the rear. According to them, Russia is now using significantly more kamikaze drones, guided bombs, and long-range strike capabilities than just a few months ago. Moreover, these actions have taken on an increasingly systematic nature: strip by strip of forest, village by village, bridge by bridge, are being destroyed with the aim of sequentially weakening Ukrainian logistics behind the front line.
New features of Russian tactics are also emerging far from the front lines. Previously, Russia often struck fuel stations, logistics centers, or civilian infrastructure without a clear system; now Ukrainian officers note a much more consistent campaign against the Ukrainian supply system. It is noteworthy that Russia is currently attacking logistics centers on a scale similar to that of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory, but with significantly greater firepower. Many such facilities are located along key highways. During our trip, we passed by numerous logistics centers that had been destroyed just hours or days before.”
https://x.com/dana916/status/2085761502443610277
Ukraine is officially not “Winning” anymore
DAMIJAN blog 
Zanimivo, da na tem blogu že dolgo ni bilo analiz in komentarjev o Ukrajini in Rusiji. So poročila o ukrajinskih uspehih z napadi na kritično rusko infrastrukturo globoko v notranjosti ruskega ozemlja, medijski spin, ali je Ukrajini dejansko uspelo oslabiti rusko vojaško moč
Všeč mi jeVšeč mi je
Nič od tega.
Da začnemo najprej z Ukrajinsko ofenzivo dronov. Obseg ruskega prestrezanja je večji od 95%. Glede na ogromno ozemlje, ki ga je potrebno pokriti, ameriško izvidovanje iz vesolja, ki omogoča odkrivanje praznih lis (nebranjenega ozemlja) je rezultat ruskega prestrezanja iz čisto vojaško-tehničnega aspekta izjemen. Potrjujejo to kar smo tisti iz obrambne industrije vedeli ves čas – ruska protiletalska obramba je (by far) najbolj učinkovita na svetu.
Rezultat preostalih zadetkov je seveda neprijeten, vendar nikakor ne vpliva na vojne aktivnosti RF. Pomembno bi bilo zmanjšanje ruskih kapacitet za dizel, ki poganja vojni stroj in gospodarstvo, ampak tu ima Rusija ogromne presežne zmogljivosti(40%) in verjetno eno od največjih strateških zalog na svetu. Drugače je pri bencinu, kjer so ukrajinski napadi povzročili motnje pri dobavi. Ruske rafinerije so praviloma zelo velike marsikje obsegajo par km2 ozemlja. Nekaj dronov s po nekaj 10kg razstreliva ne more povzročiti dolgotrajne škode. Nenazadnje so je to tudi pokazalo. Večinoma (ne pa povsod) je bila škoda relativno hitro odpravljena.
Dronska ofenziva je izraz čistega obupa in nemoči ustavljanja ruskega valjarja na fronti, ki povzroča od 1.500 do 2.000 ukrajinskih žrtev na dan! Gre za poskus vplivati na ruske volitve septembra. Učinek je ravno nasproten – ruska javnost se radikalizira in zahteva odgovor. Psihološki nastavki za odločnejšo rusko akcijo so tako nastavljeni.
Ruski odgovor je po metodičnih pripravah prišel kmalu in daleč presega obseg in učinkovitost ukrajinskega napada. Prvič ker gre za uporabo balističnih raket, ki imajo bistveno večje bojne glave (od par sto do 500 kg) in zaradi bistveno zmanjšane učinkovitosti ukrajinske protiletalske obrambe. Ta je bila tudi prej, ne glede na vso propagando, relativno neučinkovita proti balističnim raketam (količniki prestrezanja balistike so od nič do 10%). Drugače je bilo pri dronih predvsem starejšega tip (Geran 1, 2), ampak tudi tu so Rusi naredili bistveni napredek z novejšimi Geran 4 in 5 in novim Baderol-om. Tu ukrajinski prestrezalni droni zaradi hitrosti in višine letenja niso več učinkoviti.
Odgovor seveda zahteva obseg, ki je prevelik za komentar. Imam že napol napisan prispevek na to temo in če bo Jože za to, upam, da bo nared v naslednjih dneh.
Všeč mi jeVšeč mi je